March 2015

Petroleum

commentary
Oil Bonanza: Good News for the World
World oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since June 2014 and over the next several years prices are more likely to fall than to rise. The global economy will benefit hugely from this shift, and it's possible that global security will also benefit from lower oil prices.
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Mar 31, 2015
The International Economy
Charles Wolf, Jr.

Afghanistan

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Give Ghani a Chance: Why This Time Is Different
After years of broken promises, there's reason to believe that these will be kept under President Ashraf Ghani and that the pronouncements about a better U.S.-Afghan future deserve the benefit of the doubt.
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Mar 31, 2015
Foreign Affairs
Jonah Blank
Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy

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Three Cheers for Research Users Engaging in REF 2014
In the UK, research outputs from universities are assessed every five years to determine future funding allocations from government. In 2014, for the first time, the Research Excellence Framework included an assessment of research impact. Research users played key roles throughout the process.
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Mar 31, 2015
PolicyWonkers
Catriona Manville
Epidemic

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How the Public Perceives Ebola Risk in the United States
The Ebola outbreak in Africa and the cases in the United States weighed heavily on the minds of policymakers and the public. While the Ebola threat was (and is) certainly real, many Americans greatly overestimated their chances of contracting the deadly disease.
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Mar 30, 2015
The RAND Blog
Katherine Grace Carman, Michael S. Pollard @MichaelSPollard, et al.
Security Cooperation

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France Is Replacing the UK as America's Top Ally in Europe
The United States' relationship with France should be recognized and strengthened. France retains the military capability and the political moxie to contribute significantly and aggressively to collective responses to security threats to the Atlantic Alliance.
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Mar 30, 2015
Newsweek
Michael Shurkin, Peter A. Wilson
The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

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Inside the Terrorist Factory
As the civil wars in Syria and Iraq continue, they sharpen the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shias, threatening the stability of the region and attracting a steady flow of foreign volunteers, effectively turning Syria and Iraq into a terrorist factory.
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Mar 30, 2015
The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins
Health Behaviors

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Paying People to Change Behaviour in the UK: Lessons from Latin America
Policymakers in Western countries seeking new policy levers to tackle costly lifestyle behaviors in the age of austerity may do well to take up programs based on cash incentives. Recent analysis of conditional payment programs in Latin America highlights some useful lessons.
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Mar 30, 2015
The RAND Blog
Christian Van Stolk
commentary
What's at Stake in Nigeria's Elections
Next to ethnic and religious predilections, security is by far the biggest issue for Nigerians in Saturday's election. For more than 50 years, since Nigeria's independence from British rule, its military has played an important role in peacekeeping across the continent. Paradoxically, the country has struggled with an insurgency within its own borders.
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Mar 27, 2015
The RAND Blog
Tobi A. Oluwatola
International Economic Relations

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Don't Scare Off Investors from Iran
Non-American corporations must decide whether the benefits of pursuing business opportunities in Iran outweigh the risks, and they will likely stay away as long as Congress keeps debating the imposition of new sanctions. Their reluctance to invest could prevent Iran from seeing the economic benefits of a nuclear deal, which could lead the Iranian government to pull out of it — bringing the U.S. and its allies back to square one.
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Mar 27, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
Larry Hanauer
Educational Program Evaluation

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REF 2014 Shows That Research Impact Can Be Assessed
For the first time anywhere, the UK has allocated funding to universities according to an assessment of research impact. An evaluation of the Research Excellence Framework 2014 process reveals that it worked, allowing different types of impacts drawn from a wide range of disciplines to be compared and scored.
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Mar 27, 2015
Higher Education Funding Council for England Blog
Catriona Manville
Educational Program Evaluation

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REF 2014 Impact Submissions: Part of a Cultural Shift?
The Research Excellence Framework (REF) has incentivized universities to be more focused on their contribution to society beyond academia. The inclusion of impact as a component of the REF is leading to a cultural shift in the academic sector.
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Mar 27, 2015
Higher Education Funding Council for England Blog
Catriona Manville, Jonathan Grant
Afghanistan

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A Better Afghan Strategy: Lose the Timeline
It's in America's strategic interest to once and for all do away with its arbitrary timeline in favor of a strategy that provides its Afghan partners with something to preserve and nurture, not something to dread losing.
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Mar 26, 2015
War on the Rocks
Jason H. Campbell @JasonHCampbell
International Diplomacy

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Grounds for Cautious Optimism on an Iran Nuclear Deal
Sufficient information is available to be optimistic about the characteristics of the framework accord anticipated by the end of this month. Many Americans might be surprised to learn what has already been accomplished under the interim agreement that laid the groundwork for the comprehensive deal now being negotiated.
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Mar 26, 2015
Newsweek
Burgess Laird
France

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The Front National and the Future of French Foreign Policy
France's far-right party Front National is ascendant. Its leader could be a strong contender in 2017's presidential elections. Do the Front National's current and, possibly, future successes have implications for France's partners and allies in Europe and beyond?
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Mar 25, 2015
War on the Rocks
Stephanie Pezard @StephaniePezard
commentary
Pooling Resources for Public Service Transformation — Different Places, Emerging Consensus?
Poor coordination in government services has long been a source of frustration to users, and a cause of inefficiency and ineffectiveness. The emerging debate about devolution of powers and responsibilities for some public services, and ongoing resource pressures, have encouraged innovative, locally developed approaches.
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Mar 25, 2015
The RAND Blog
Jeremy Lonsdale, Daniel Schweppenstedde
Afghanistan

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How to 'Fix' Afghanistan
Sowing the seeds of future success in bringing peace to Afghanistan requires no new U.S. boots on the ground or extravagant financial commitments. Rather, it takes a willingness to continue to engage with Afghanistan's dynamic set of political challenges in small, but meaningful ways.
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Mar 24, 2015
CNN
S. Rebecca Zimmerman