March 2023

commentary

America's Dangerous Short War Fixation

Americans have long been fixated on the idea of the short, decisive war. And the United States' adversaries bank on Washington's strategic impatience. If the United States' objective is to win, the only thing worse than fighting a long war may be thinking it's possible to avoid one.

Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile

commentary

Why U.S. Military Interventions Fail and What to Do About It

There will always be situations in which military intervention is the best or only option for the United States. But policymakers must also recognize that in many cases, the best response to a crisis or potential threat is to take no military action at all and rely instead on diplomacy or sanctions—or simply learn to live with an elevated threat.

Jennifer Kavanagh, Bryan Frederick

commentary

Can Grade Retention Help with COVID-19 Learning Recovery in Schools?

Early grade retention is getting more attention as a potential way to make up for missed learning during the pandemic. But retaining kids without providing the necessary supports or failing to identify the right kids using objective criteria will likely yield ineffective results or even lead to adverse effects.

Umut Ozek @uozek, Louis T. Mariano

commentary

Japan's New Security Policies: A Long Road to Full Implementation

The historic ambition contained within Japan's new defense strategies is notable. But the reality is that an extraordinary alignment of political, economic, fiscal, and other stars will be necessary for Japan's government to fully implement their stated ambitions over the next five to ten years.

Adam P. Liff, Jeffrey W. Hornung

commentary

Juggled Plan for McCarthy-Tsai Meeting Does Taiwan No Favors

Instead of traveling to Taiwan like Nancy Pelosi did, U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is abiding by the advice of President Tsai Ing-wen to skip the trip. They will meet in California. This could be seen as a major victory for China's aggressive stance toward U.S. ties with the island and could embolden Beijing.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

commentary

Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War

China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.

Timothy R. Heath

blog

20 Years After the Iraq War, China-Russia Ties, Correctional Education: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on reflecting on the Iraq War, the pandemic and prison education, North Korea’s latest threats, and more.

commentary

What Difference Will Polish and Slovakian Fighter Jets Make to Ukraine?

The news that Poland and Slovakia are to deliver MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine signals a departure from the longstanding stance of the international community, which had hitherto resisted Kyiv's calls for more combat aircraft. While this donation will be welcomed in Ukraine, it could raise political and practical issues the West must address to maximize the benefits and mitigate the risks.

James Black

commentary

The Ripples of War Are Only Beginning to Spread. Is America Ready?

There are now more than 1.9 million U.S. veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. More than 50,000 were physically injured and around 15 percent have experienced PTSD. Perhaps all were exposed to burn pits and other toxins. What are the long-term impacts of the wars on those who fought them?

Kayla M. Williams @KWilliams101

commentary

Should Mexico's Drug Cartels Be Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations?

While the outcry over the kidnapping and murder of U.S. citizens by members of the Gulf Cartel in Mexico is understandable, stridency should not preclude strategic assessment. America's problem with drug trafficking is not the lack of statutes, but the magnitude of the problem.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

q&a

Twenty Years After the Iraq War, a Q&A with RAND Experts

On the 20th anniversary of the war in Iraq, RAND experts discussed what the war means for the people of Iraq and the veterans who fought there, what lessons the U.S. military learned (or did not learn), and what effect it has had on the balance of power in the Middle East and the global reputation of the United States.

commentary

Venture Capital Gives America a Strategic Edge in the Age of Technology Wars

U.S. early-stage hardware startups are seriously disadvantaged by a persistent lack of financing. Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Defense to spend $75 million to invest in dual-use hardware startups. But the Pentagon has proven reticent to embrace a venture capital–style approach, even though research has demonstrated it is optimal for driving innovation.

Daniel Egel, Michael J. McNerney

commentary

India Can Bridge the U.S.-Russia Divide over Ukraine

No country is as well positioned as India to mediate between Russia and the United States, and bring the Ukraine conflict to an end. Even limited success in ending the war will bolster India's credentials as an emerging great power, capable of accomplishing remarkable things that others cannot.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

essay

The Time to Prevent Shortfalls in Critical Materials Is Now

China's domination of the rare earth market is a matter of economic and national security concern. Existing plans to diversify the market and help the United States break its reliance on China likely don't go far enough or fast enough, and the clock is running.

commentary

Healthy Nation, Safe Nation: Build Health Security into National Security

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed a need for a more-robust health security paradigm within the broader national security context. But addressing preparedness and response shortfalls for national-level challenges might not be fully possible without first addressing the glaring seams and gaps between the various stakeholder communities.

Mahshid Abir, Daniel M. Gerstein @Daniel_Gerstein