May 2023

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What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine

After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.

Brynn Tannehill

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Rising to the Challenge: A Methodological Approach to Prioritizing Defense Investments

Meeting the Pentagon's goals to invest efficiently in military capabilities calls for a methodological process hinging on five key elements: aligning strategies with tasks, understanding what drives military innovation, embracing specificity in problem-solving, preparing for an unknown future, and assessing technology investments for prioritization.

Christopher A. Mouton

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Who Should We Honor on Memorial Day?

The cost of war is not borne solely by soldiers on the field of battle, and for too many, the field of battle is unavoidable. Widening notions of whom we honor, and how, are signs of progress—but they are just a start.

Kayla M. Williams @KWilliams101

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Making the Most of JROTC

Junior Reserve Officers' Training Corps (JROTC) units in U.S. schools have drawn intensive scrutiny of late, and some districts might consider dropping JROTC. But they should take stock of what they'll lose. Students who choose to enroll in JROTC and stick with it do better in school than their peers.

Melanie A. Zaber @MelanieZaber

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How Can Platforms Deal with Toxic Content? Look to Wall Street

Social media has a content problem. It's not the content itself, although the list of toxic material is long. The problem is the sheer volume of content. Instead of trusting in self-regulation, the United States could use its regulation of Wall Street after 2008 as a roadmap for regulating tech.

James V. Marrone

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Military Assistance to Ukraine Is a Rare Success

Recently, the United States reversed its long-standing opposition to sending Ukraine F-16 advanced aircraft to aid its fight against Russia. The policy reversal is a smart call. Once the aircraft are delivered and training is complete the jets will help Ukraine defend its territory more efficiently, and might even help end the war.

Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes, Richard Bennet

blog

Immigration Policy, the Black-White Wealth Gap, ChatGPT: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the challenges facing U.S. immigration policy, what it would take to close America's Black-white wealth gap, risks and opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, more.

commentary

A Unique Opportunity Not To Be Squandered: Advancing Our Relationships in Central Asia

Concerned about Putin's imperialist actions in Ukraine, five nations in Central Asia are looking to the West to offset the political, economic, and security-related pressures they feel from Russia and, increasingly, China. It would be a mistake for the United States not to seize this moment.

Robert Schlesiger, Daniel Egel, et al.

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F-16s Will Bolster Ukraine's Fighting Force

F-16s going to Ukraine could help it defend against Russian aerial assaults. But their greatest value may be to augment future Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at retaking occupied land. This will require training and exercising, but Ukrainian forces are fully capable of mastering it.

John Hoehn, William Courtney @courtneywmh

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Navigating Complex Maritime Security Challenges in the Black and Mediterranean Seas: Insights from the Updated EUMSS

The European Union understands the rising geopolitical challenges that will affect security in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, both from non-state actors and as a result of state-based competition and conflict. Cooperation with non-EU countries will be critical in promoting maritime security in the region.

Hunter Stoll

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Beyond the 'Mine Shaft Gap': Navigating Threat Perceptions in the Sino-American Rivalry

In “Dr. Strangelove,” the “mine shaft gap” was an astute satirical concept that reflected the mindset that any perceived disadvantage between the United States and the Soviet Union posed an existential threat. Though fictional, this kind of calculation is not unheard of in real-life, modern-day thinking. Shrewd discernment could help avoid it as the United States pursues its national security objectives.

Christopher A. Mouton

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Putin Is Following Brezhnev to a Dead End

Four decades ago, Leonid Brezhnev led the USSR into what many Soviets called the “era of stagnation.” Vladimir Putin is taking Russia down a similar path. The USSR tried to recover by turning to reform-minded leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, but too late. The USSR collapsed. Could Russia?

William Courtney @courtneywmh, Mark Stalczynski

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Social Studies Achievement Has Plummeted Nationally. Four Reasons This Trend Will Not Be Reversed Without Systemic Action

The U.S. Department of Education recently released results from the latest national social studies assessments. U.S. history scores continued a previous pattern of decline and civics scores declined for the first time ever. Reversing these trends will require concerted effort and increased investments at all levels of the U.S. education system.

Julia H. Kaufman @juliahkaufman, Melissa Kay Diliberti

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Does America Still Need Europe?

The United States should be discriminating in its choice of global commitments. But if critical U.S. interests are at stake in Europe, then Washington should take the necessary steps to maintain NATO unity and European stability.

Michael J. Mazarr @MMazarr

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What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence

The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.

Raphael S. Cohen