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Arms Proliferation and Control

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The U.S.-Soviet nuclear arms race ended in détente, but nuclear development efforts and WMD proliferation in India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran have caused geopolitical instability since the Cold War's end. RAND has applied strategic analysis to nuclear confrontation scenarios and international deterrence efforts since its earliest work on game theory, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global as well as regional security.

Report
How Does North Korea Evade Sanctions?
The United Nations has imposed increasingly restrictive sanctions on North Korea after each of the six nuclear weapons tests that it conducted between 2009 and 2016. Enforcement has been mixed, and North Korea has become adept at several techniques to evade sanctions.
Sep 23, 2021
Content
Where Russia Markets and Sells Advanced Conventional Weapons
Russia uses arms exports to further relations with other countries, influence their political and military leaders, and further its broader foreign and defense policy goals. A series of maps show the extent of its marketing, negotiating, and sales of key weapons systems.
Jun 11, 2021

Explore Arms Proliferation and Control

Commentary
Countries Buy Defective Chinese Military Equipment. Why?
China's defense industry has exported malfunctioning and defective military equipment in recent years—leaving countries short of what's needed for their security while also draining military budgets. So why do countries continue to order military equipment from China?
Jun 8, 2023
Research Brief
What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made a constructive U.S.-Russia relationship implausible for the foreseeable future. But once the fighting stops, the United States will continue to face long-term incentives to improve the stability and predictability of its relations with Moscow.
May 17, 2023
Report
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
May 17, 2023
Tool
Mapping Chinese and Russian Military and Security Exports to Africa
Military weapons exports and private military and security contractors are important tools for projecting a country's influence around the world. How have China and Russia employed these tools across Africa in recent years?
Dec 13, 2022
Commentary
How China Is Building Influence Through Arms Sales
China may be using arms sales to strengthen alliances around the South China Sea and counter the United States' regional alliances. Beijing's security relationships around the South China Sea could be a harbinger of what it might replicate in Africa and possibly Latin America.
Dec 9, 2022
Commentary
The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?
The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.
Oct 10, 2022
Blog
Homelessness in L.A., Russia's Military Woes, Educator Morale: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on breaking the cycle of incarceration and homelessness, Russia’s ongoing military struggles, NATO expansion, and more.
Aug 19, 2022
Commentary
How Russia's Nuclear Double Cross of Ukraine Teaches Dangerous Lessons
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the West's support for Kyiv has been tempered by an ace up Vladimir Putin's sleeve: the potential use of nuclear weapons. But other countries are taking notice, which could imperil world stability even further.
Aug 16, 2022
Multimedia
North Korean Sanctions Evasion
The United Nations imposed increasingly restrictive sanctions on North Korea after each of the six nuclear weapons tests that it conducted between 2009 and 2016. In this film, experts discuss the threats posed by North Korean proliferation and the importance of enforcing sanctions.
Aug 15, 2022
Commentary
A Renewed Nuclear Deal With Iran: Turning Back the Clock?
Diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran are in Vienna trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015. But even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago.
Mar 4, 2022
Report
Instability in the U.S.-Russia Deterrence Relationship
U.S.-Russian strategic stability is based on mutual vulnerability to retaliation, which eliminates the incentive to strike first. But the United States has developed counterforce capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. What could be done to address Russia's concerns and increase stability?
Feb 17, 2022
Journal Article
Estimating Nuclear Proliferation and Security Risks in Emerging Markets Using Bayesian Belief Networks
Estimating future nuclear proliferation risk using expert elicitation.
Jan 21, 2022
Commentary
What Does Africa Need Most Now: Russian Arms Sales or Good Vaccines?
Why is Russia's main export to Africa advanced conventional weapons at a time when other needs are so great? African leaders might think twice about aggressive Russian arms pitches and engagement of mercenaries, and prioritize measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic growth.
Nov 17, 2021
Report
A Realistic Approach for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Weapons
Pursuing the unachievable goal of convincing North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons can only complicate the real challenge of managing a nuclear-armed North Korea. The United States and its allies should instead focus on deterrence and a series of negotiated agreements to control further development.
Nov 3, 2021
Commentary
Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy
The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.
Oct 20, 2021
Commentary
North Korea's 'Business as Usual' Missile Provocations
North Korea has revved up its cycle of missile provocations, its go-to method of securing leverage against the United States and South Korea in the on-again off-again nuclear negotiations. How will the United States and South Korea choose to respond?
Oct 14, 2021
Commentary
Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.
Jul 14, 2021
Commentary
North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China
Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.
Jul 13, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Arms Proliferation and Control

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

John V. Parachini

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and…
Samuel Charap

Senior Political Scientist

Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states; European and Eurasian regional security; and U.S.-Russia deterrence, strategic stability, and arms control.

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