Ryan Bauer

Defense Analyst

Santa Monica Office

Education

M.A. in security studies, Georgetown University; B.A. in political science, CSU Poly (Pomona)

One Page Bio

Overview

Ryan Bauer is a senior defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. His research examines information warfare and messaging, disinformation, Russian security issues, and emergency preparedness. Previously, Bauer worked as an analyst at CNA, where he conducted research for a number of projects relating to homeland security and emergency preparedness. Bauer holds a master's degree in Security Studies from Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and bachelor's degree in Political Science from Cal Poly Pomona.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Ryan Bauer, "How Russia’s War in Ukraine Has Impacted its Christian Image," The Moscow Times, 2022

Parachini, John V., Ryan Bauer, and Peter A. Wilson, Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales, RAND Corporation (RR-A1341-1), 2021

Joshua Tallis, Ryan Bauer, Lauren Frey, "ISIL’S Battlefield Tactics and the Implications for Homeland Security and Preparedness," Journal of Terrorism Research, 8(3), 2017

Ryan Bauer, "Russia’s Soft Power Development in the 21st Century," Small Wars Journal, 2016

Marcellino, William, Christopher Paul, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Michael Schwille, Ryan Bauer, Jason R. Vick, and Walter F. Landgraf III, Developing, Disseminating, and Assessing Command Narrative: Anchoring Command Efforts on a Coherent Story, RAND Corporation (RR-A353-1), 2021

Commentary

Civilian Military Workforce

Ukraine Is a Breeding Ground for Russian PMCs
Moscow's desire for additional fighters in Ukraine has created a breeding ground for Russian private military company (PMC) development. This explosion of what are essentially private armies is not only shaping the battlefield in Ukraine; it could have devastating impacts long after this conflict ends.
Jun 14, 2023
The Moscow Times
Russia

How Russia's War in Ukraine Has Impacted Its Christian Image
Over the past decade, the Russian government has taken pains to present itself as a bastion of Christianity and traditional values. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, however, there have been noticeable cracks in the receptivity to this messaging strategy.
Nov 16, 2022
The Moscow Times
Africa

What Does Africa Need Most Now: Russian Arms Sales or Good Vaccines?
Why is Russia's main export to Africa advanced conventional weapons at a time when other needs are so great? African leaders might think twice about aggressive Russian arms pitches and engagement of mercenaries, and prioritize measures to stem the COVID-19 pandemic and encourage economic growth.
Nov 17, 2021
RealClearWorld
Russia

Sanctions Targeting Russia's Defense Sector: Will They Influence Its Behavior?
In response to recent Russian cyber espionage, interference in U.S. elections, and the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, President Biden announced a new round of sanctions and expulsions of Russian officials. But will these sanctions hurt Russia's defense industry enough to curb the Kremlin's behavior?
May 20, 2021
RealClearDefense
Fighter Aircraft

Russia's Su-57 Heavy Fighter Bomber: Is It Really a Fifth-Generation Aircraft?
Russia's Su-57 aircraft has been in development since 2002 and is considered a key part of Russia's arms export industry as a fifth-generation fighter. Despite continued Russian efforts to sell the aircraft, it is unlikely that a fully developed and full production–ready Su-57 will be available for sale before the late 2020s.
Aug 17, 2020
The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
Risk-Informed Analysis of Transportation Worker Identification Credential Reader Requirements
This report assesses the cost-effectiveness of a U.S. Coast Guard rule that requires any facility handling certain dangerous cargoes to biometrically verify the identity of anyone accessing a secure area of that facility.
Nov 10, 2022
Report
The Role of Information in U.S. Concepts for Strategic Competition
A detailed enumeration of activities, a synthesis of expert consensus on challenges to gray zone competition, and a dynamic menu of solutions can enhance the U.S. competitive position in the gray zone and beyond.
Oct 25, 2022
Report
Impact of the U.S. and Allied Sanction Regimes on Russian Arms Sales
In this report, the authors examine Russian arms exports and the impact of sanctions designed to discourage third country purchases and raise the cost of future Russian malign interference in other nation-states.
Nov 18, 2021
Tool
Command Narrative Smart Guide
This quick reference provides the big-picture basics for successful command narrative development and deployment.
Nov 15, 2021
Report
Developing, Disseminating, and Assessing Command Narrative: Anchoring Command Efforts on a Coherent Story
Drawing on the scientific literature and lessons learned from the joint force, the authors of this report describe best practices for the effective use of command narrative.
Nov 15, 2021
Report
The Risk-Mitigation Value of the Transportation Worker Identification Credential: A Comprehensive Security Assessment of the TWIC Program
The Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) is designed to enhance security at U.S. ports. This report provides the findings from an assessment of the TWIC program, along with the assessors' recommendations.
May 13, 2020
Report
The Emerging Risk of Virtual Societal Warfare: Social Manipulation in a Changing Information Environment
The evolution of advanced information environments is rapidly creating a new category of possible cyberaggression, which RAND researchers are calling virtual societal warfare in an analysis of the characteristics and future of this growing threat.
Oct 9, 2019