Belarus

Commentary

Countering Russia's Nuclear Threat in Europe

President Vladimir Putin's announced plan to put nuclear arms in Belarus may pose risks to NATO's nuclear posture. Three decades after the Soviet collapse, some allies might be uneasy about reenergizing NATO's nuclear mission. But others might argue that not responding to Russia's plans could cause the Kremlin to doubt NATO's nuclear credibility.

Commentary

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation

If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?

Commentary

Russia's Appetite May Extend Beyond Ukraine

Unless Russian forces are defeated in Ukraine or withdrawn by new Kremlin rulers, Moscow might assault other post-Soviet neighbors. The West may face limits on the extent to which it could help them thwart such attacks.

Commentary

Moscow Hesitated in Poland—Will It in Belarus?

Forty years ago, Russia used a major military exercise in part to scare Poland's communist leaders into cracking down on protesters. A similar Russian exercise now could be aimed in part at pressuring Belarus. If so, the West could respond in several ways.

Commentary

Belarusian Mortgage on Russia's Future

In September, President Vladimir Putin signaled that Russia was throwing its weight behind embattled Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. But any move to enforce Putin's will in Belarus could invite tougher Western sanctions and scare investors. This would exacerbate problems facing Russia's flagging economy.

Blog

Radicalization, the Gender Pay Gap, Israel-UAE Deal: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the potential for a new era of radicalization, insights into the gender pay gap, why the Israel-UAE deal doesn't merit the hype, and more.

Commentary

The West's Role in Belarus

Belarus may be on the verge of political change. If allowed to help, how could the West support free and fair elections and the formation of a legitimate government?

Report

Proposal for a Revised Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

Disputes over the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in relations between Russia and the West and have created major challenges for the states caught in between. A new approach to the order could boost security and prosperity in the region.

Testimony

Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe: Addendum

Document submitted August 30, 2018, as an addendum to testimony before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on August 1, 2018.

Testimony

Russia's Social Media Influence in Eastern Europe

Russia is engaged in an active, worldwide propaganda campaign, but it is particularly interested in targeting its western border. What can the United States and allied governments do to limit Russian influence in the region?

Report

Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

Disputes over regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia are at the core of the breakdown in Russia-West relations. What could return regional stability, facilitate conflict resolution, restore economic links, and reduce tensions?

Report

How to Counter Russian Social Media Influence in Eastern Europe

Russia uses social media in nearby states to sow dissent against neighboring governments and NATO. Options for countering the Kremlin's campaign include tracking and blocking propaganda more quickly and offering alternative content to help displace the Russian narrative.

Report

Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia

The perspectives collected in these conference proceedings explore alternatives to the current approaches to the regional order for the states "in between" the West and Russia -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Commentary

Joint Military Exercises Distract from Complex Russia-Belarus Relationship

Analysts and military leaders have concerns that Russia will use the Zapad 2017 exercise in Belarus as a smokescreen to put personnel and equipment in place, and keep it there. But the deep ties and history of cooperation between the two states make the chances of that happening unlikely.

Commentary

Belarus: Between Russia and the West

Public demonstrations in Minsk and across Russia hint that winds of political change and disillusionment with stagnation and corruption may be reaching both countries. Their leaders will blame the West, try to ride out the protests and, despite differences, will likely stick together.

Report

Cooperation and Conflict in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Migration

Presents thirteen papers by policy analysts from Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus on the relationship between current and emergent migratory processes and patterns in the former Soviet Union, and current and emergent trends in political, economic, and ...

People

Kotryna Jukneviciute