Uncertainty in Biomass Greenhouse Gas Emissions

In the near future, the energy sector may be required to use alternatives to fossil fuels to reduce life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Biomass-derived energy is one potential pathway to achieving this objective. However, the GHG-intensity of biomass-based energy is highly dependent on how the biomass is produced, transported, processed, and converted into liquid fuels or electricity.

The U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) asked the RAND Corporation to explore the issue of uncertainty in biomass GHG emissions estimates. RAND has produced a tool, the Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions model, and an accompanying user manual. Additional publications in this area are forthcoming and will also be available through this project page.

Read More at National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)

Related Publications

• Identifying Key Drivers of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biomass Feedstocks for Energy Production June 20, 2013

  David R. Johnson, Aimee E. Curtright, Henry H. Willis

  Many policies in the United States, at both the federal and state levels, encourage the adoption of renewable energy from biomass.

• Scenario Uncertainties in Estimating Direct Land-Use Change Emissions in Biomass-To-Energy Life Cycle Assessment January 1, 2012

  Aimee E. Curtright, David R. Johnson, Henry H. Willis, Timothy Skone

  The use of biomass for energy production has increasingly been encouraged in the United States, in part motivated by the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to fossil fuels.

• Near-Term Opportunities for Integrating Biomass into the U.S. Electricity Supply: Technical Considerations July 29, 2011

  David S. Ortiz, Aimee E. Curtright, Constantine Samaras, Aviva Litovitz, Nicholas E. Burger

  Biomass is an increasingly important source of electricity, heat, and liquid fuel. This report examines changes to power plants and their operations, costs of cofiring biomass, and logistical issues associated with delivering biomass to the plant.

• Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis Into Life Cycle Estimates of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biomass Production July 1, 2011

  David R. Johnson, Henry H. Willis, Aimee E. Curtright, Constantine Samaras, Timothy Skone

  This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass.

• Supplying Biomass to Power Plants: A Model of the Costs of Utilizing Agricultural Biomass in Cofired Power Plants March 29, 2011

  Tom LaTourrette, David S. Ortiz, Eileen Hlavka, Nicholas E. Burger, Gary Cecchine

  Biomass energy is a renewable resource with lower life-cycle greenhouse-gas emissions than fossil fuels. The model described here estimates cost and availability of these resources from U.S. agricultural lands for an individual power plant.

• The Economic Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under a U.S. National Renewable Electricity Mandate January 1, 2011

  Keith Crane, Aimee E. Curtright, David S. Ortiz, Constantine Samaras, Nicholas E. Burger

  The authors perform a technical and economic assessment and estimate the economic costs and net GHG reductions from U.S renewable electricity mandates. GHG emissions reductions from such policies could be as much as 670 million metric tons per year. Depending on technological development, economic costs are $13-$45 billion per year. Lower costs depend on favorable technological progress.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Models Developed

• Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions Model, Version 2.0 (CUBE 2.0) Dec. 12, 2011

  Aimee E. Curtright, Henry H. Willis, and David R. Johnson
  With David S. Ortiz, Nicholas Burger, Constantine Samaras, Aviva Litovitz, and James McGee

  The Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model allows user to estimate the "farm-to-gate" GHG emissions of biomass feedstocks for energy production and the uncertainty in these emissions. CUBE 2.0 updates the model and includes several additions and corrections to CUBE 1.0. In particular, the functionality and scope have been expanded by adding two additional feedstocks (corn stover and hybrid poplar) and by increasing the number and complexity of processing and transport choices.

  The model was developed using Analytica and can be used with the free Analytica player.

• Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions Model, Version 1.0 (CUBE 1.0) Mar. 1, 2010

  Aimee E. Curtright, Henry H. Willis, David R. Johnson, David S. Ortiz, Nicholas Burger, Constantine Samaras

  The Calculating Uncertainty in Biomass Emissions (CUBE) model, version 1.0, estimates farm-to-gate emissions of three dedicated energy crops (corn grain, switchgrass, and mixed prairie biomass) and two biomass residues (forest residue and mill residue).

  CUBE 1.0 is publicly available through NETL's website and can be used with the free Analytica player.