James Black

Assistant Director, Defence and Security; European Lead, RAND Space Enterprise Initiative

Cambridge Office

Education

M.Sc./M.A. in international relations and international security, London School of Economics and Sciences Po Paris; B.A. (Hons) in history, University of Cambridge

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact RAND Europe Media Relations at +44 (1223) 353 329, x2560, or email europeanmedia@rand.org.

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Overview

James Black is assistant director of the Defence and Security research group at RAND Europe. In addition to group management responsibilities, he leads the Defence Strategy, Policy and Capability research portfolio. He also serves as European Lead for the RAND Space Enterprise Initiative, a global hub for RAND's space-related research, and advises the Centre for Defence Economics and Acquisition. Beyond RAND, he is a non-resident NATO 2030 Fellow.

Black's research focuses on strategy, policy and decision making amidst uncertainty, complexity and rapid change. He has led a wide range of studies for the UK MOD (DCDC, Dstl, DE&S, SONAC, Strategic Command, Army, Navy and RAF), EU, NATO and the Australian, Finnish, Norwegian and U.S. defence agencies. He is also actively involved in wargaming, including as lead designer of strategic exercises at the Royal College of Defence Studies.

Research interests include the future of UK, NATO/EU and European defence; strategy and geopolitics; force development and acquisition; defence innovation and industry; horizon scanning; the impact of new technologies (e.g. autonomy, AI/ML, space); and emerging transnational security issues (e.g., Arctic security). His research has been featured in BBC News, Financial Times, Politico, Reuters and others, as well as academic journals, and he has briefed the UK Defence and Foreign Affairs Select Committees and a U.S. congressional commission.

Prior to RAND, Black worked in Parliament. He holds a double M.A.-M.Sc. in international security from Sciences Po and the LSE and a B.A. Hons in history from the University of Cambridge.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

NATO 2030 Fellow

Recent Projects

Strategic Analysis for UK Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC)
Support to Development of Future UK Combat Air Strategy to 2040+
Horizon Scanning Emerging Technologies for Defence and Security
Wargaming for Royal College of Defence Studies
Shaping National and Defence Space Strategy to 2030+

Honors & Awards

RAND Europe President's Award

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Global Defence Technology; Naval Technology

Commentary

Finland

Finland Joins NATO, Sweden's Accession Remains Uncertain
Finland is at long last joining NATO, having applied together with Sweden last year in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Finland's accession represents a boon to NATO, a radical change in Finnish foreign and security policy, and another unplanned setback for Russia.
Apr 4, 2023
The RAND Blog
Ukraine

What Difference Will Polish and Slovakian Fighter Jets Make to Ukraine?
The news that Poland and Slovakia are to deliver MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine signals a departure from the longstanding stance of the international community, which had hitherto resisted Kyiv's calls for more combat aircraft. While this donation will be welcomed in Ukraine, it could raise political and practical issues the West must address to maximize the benefits and mitigate the risks.
Mar 23, 2023
Defense News
Military Aircraft

The Political Dilemma May Be Just the Tip of the Iceberg for Europe When Deciding Whether to Send Fighter Jets to Ukraine
Supplying military equipment to another country's forces can be far from straightforward. The logistical, operational, and technical considerations are immensely complex, and any offer made by NATO allies to Ukraine might best come with a credible plan for deployment and effect—not just a cheque that cannot be cashed.
Feb 24, 2023
RealClearDefense
Warfare and Military Operations

Ready for Take-Off? The Next Generation of UK Maritime Air Power
The recent deployment of a Carrier Strike Group represents a marked shift in the United Kingdom's ambitions and capabilities for power projection in both the maritime and air domains. The United Kingdom is hoping to work closely with NATO Allies to enhance the Alliance's collective ability to deploy maritime airpower as part of a flexible posture that can deter and respond to threats both close to home and far afield.
Dec 10, 2021
LUFTLED
Norway

How Norway's Allies View Its Defense Challenges and Opportunities
Norway's Ministry of Defence will shortly publish its next Long Term Plan, which outlines how the Armed Forces, in tandem with other elements of government and society, can best address the threats to Norway. Other countries can learn from how Norway chooses to tackle emerging challenges, and can benefit from its lessons learned.
Apr 16, 2020
Defense News
Military Facilities

A Ruling from the Hague Threatens a U.S. and British Military Base in Asia
A remote and obscure tropical atoll in the Indian Ocean would seem an unlikely stage for the latest act of the United Kingdom's unfolding Brexit drama and the newest challenge to U.S. global power projection. But a nonbinding verdict in The Hague calls into question the legitimacy of the UK's administration and the major U.S. military presence on the islands' largest atoll, Diego Garcia.
Apr 1, 2019
The National Interest
Security Cooperation

'Zero-sum' Approach to Defence and Security During Brexit Negotiations Risks a Less Secure UK and EU
It is in the interest of neither the UK nor the EU to have a 'zero sum' approach to defense and security during Brexit negotiations. Both sides have plenty to lose if it turns into a 'messy divorce.'
Apr 4, 2018
UK Ministry of Defence's 2018 Defence Suppliers Guidebook
Communication Systems

Our Reliance on Space Tech Means We Should Prepare for the Worst
Space-enabled connectivity, technology, and services support a diverse array of political, military and economic activities, many of which modern life on Earth relies upon and which the public often takes for granted. How prepared is global society to deal with the growing reliance on this technology and to mitigate associated risks?
Mar 12, 2018
Defense News
Border and Port Security

Is Macron Set to 'Take Back Control' of UK-France Border After Brexit?
As French President Emmanuel Macron arrives in London for the 35th UK-France Summit, there is growing French discomfort with arrangements at the UK-France border. The UK's decision to leave the European Union has added new urgency to this already fraught debate.
Jan 17, 2018
Prospect Magazine
Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous Vehicles: Terrorist Threat or Security Opportunity?
Terrorist groups that track developments in technology could be considering using self-driving cars in place of suicide bombers or for ramming attacks. But autonomous vehicle capabilities offer a range of potential benefits to law enforcement and security operations, too.
Jan 3, 2018
The Cipher Brief
Northern Ireland Is Now at the Forefront of Brexit
After Prime Minister Theresa May's unexpected failure to win a majority in June's snap election, she is now reliant on Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party to shore up a minority Conservative government. As Brexit negotiations begin, European politicians should refresh their knowledge of Northern Irish politics.
Jun 29, 2017
HuffPost UK
European Union

This Latest Gibraltar Dispute Is a Sign of Things to Come
In many ways, Gibraltar is the first Brexit issue where both the UK and EU find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place. How this diplomatic problem is resolved now could help set the tone for Brexit negotiations during the next two years.
Apr 5, 2017
Prospect Magazine
Security Cooperation

How Will Defence and Security Be Affected by Brexit?
Trade and migration issues have dominated Brexit discussions. But the UK's decision to leave the EU also creates challenges for security, deepening uncertainty at a time when little certainty exists.
Mar 16, 2017
Prospect Magazine

Publications

Report
Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System
Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.
Jun 13, 2023
Journal Article
Reflecting on One Year of War: The Role of Non-Military Levers
One year after Russia's illegal full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this article examines the role of non-military levers (e.g., diplomatic, information, economic) in the conflict so far.
Mar 28, 2023
Journal Article
Norway's Next Long-Term Defence Plan: An Allied Perspective
As Norway contemplates the priorities for its next Long-Term Defence Plan (LTP), it finds itself in a Europe, a NATO, and a global environment that have all changed markedly since the last iteration of the Plan was released in 2020.
Mar 28, 2023
Report
Strategic advantage in a competitive age: Definitions, dynamics and implications
SONAC commissioned RAND Europe to refine their working definition of strategic advantage. The team developed case studies and conducted expert workshops to explore the types of advantage and how actors seek to maintain and exploit their advantages.
Mar 6, 2023
Report
Supporting the Royal Australian Navy's Campaign Plan for Robotics and Autonomous Systems: Enhancing Innovation
The authors describe approaches the Royal Australian Navy might consider for enabling innovation with, and rapid acquisition of, robotics, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence (RAS-AI) in the near and medium terms.
Aug 19, 2022
Report
Supporting the Royal Australian Navy's Campaign Plan for Robotics and Autonomous Systems: Human-Machine Teaming and the Future Workforce
The authors provide an overview of the various impacts of robotics, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence (RAS-AI) on the Defence workforce to inform the Royal Australian Navy's ongoing efforts to facilitate RAS-AI integration.
Jul 18, 2022
Report
Supporting a Royal Australian Navy Modelling and Simulation Strategy: A Strategy-to-Task Framework
The authors provide an evidence base for an expanded Modelling and Simulation Strategy for the Royal Australian Navy so that it can better position itself to operate in a high-end warfighting environment.
May 18, 2022
Journal Article
Considering Responsible Behaviours as Part of Managing Threats to Space Systems
Space is becoming more contested, competed and congested. This report covers Wilton Park consultations on how to define and promote responsible behaviors in space, ahead of formal United Nations negotiations to try to reduce threats to space security.
May 17, 2022
Report
Prioritising Critical Technologies of National Interest in Australia: Developing an Analytical Approach
In this report, the authors develop an analytical approach for identifying and prioritising critical technologies of national interest to Australia in a manner that balances national security, economic prosperity and social cohesion requirements.
Apr 12, 2022
Report
Supporting the Royal Australian Navy's Campaign Plan for Robotics and Autonomous Systems: Emerging Missions and Technology Trends
This report provides a high-level review of the current landscape and future trajectory of robotics, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence from the perspective of maritime missions and enabling technologies.
Apr 4, 2022
Report
Future Uses of Space Out to 2050: Emerging threats and opportunities for the UK National Space Strategy
This study explores the variety of possible future uses of space out to 2050 and identifies potential 'game-changers' and the implications for the UK space sector. It provides recommendations for the UK to help ensure a 'future proof' space strategy.
Mar 2, 2022
Report
Realising the Ambitions of the UK's Defence Space Strategy: Factors Shaping Implementation to 2030
This study provides an initial look at the factors influencing the implementation of the Defence Space Strategy to 2030 and the strengths and weaknesses of the UK space enterprise. It also includes a decision support tool for capability management.
Feb 17, 2022
Research Brief
UK Strategy for the High North: Navigating a changing environment out to 2050
This report offers a perspective on how the UK could maximise its influence in the High North through enhanced cooperation across government and within multilateral fora in order to tackle environmental and geopolitical changes in the region.
Feb 2, 2022
Report
UK strategy for the High North: Policy Levers to Influence Developments out to 2050
This report offers a perspective on how the UK could maximise its influence in the High North through enhanced cooperation across government and within multilateral fora in order to tackle environmental and geopolitical changes in the region.
Feb 2, 2022
Report
Multi-Domain Integration in Defence: Conceptual Approaches and Lessons from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea
A study examining Russia, China, Iran and North Korea's current and future thinking on Multi-Domain Integration.
Jan 20, 2022
Report
Enhancing Defence's Contribution to Societal Resilience in the UK: Lessons from International Approaches
This study sought to understand other nations' approaches to societal resilience to enhance UK resilience. The study defined societal resilience and its importance, analysed other countries' practices, and identified lessons relevant to UK Defence.
Oct 21, 2021
Report
Enhancing US-Finnish and regional defence cooperation: An exploratory analysis
This study examines Finland's defence posture and the transatlantic dimensions of Finnish security policy in the context of a potential crisis in the Nordic-Baltic region.
Sep 24, 2021
Report
Supporting the Royal Australian Navy's Strategy for Robotics and Autonomous Systems: Building an Evidence Base
In this report, the authors provide an evidence base to inform the Royal Australian Navy's thinking as it develops its Maritime Robotics, Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence (RAS-AI) Strategy 2040.
Sep 14, 2021
Report
Strategic Airlift in Africa: Understanding Challenges and Opportunities for the Movement Coordination Centre Europe (MCCE) and Member Nations
The Movement Coordination Centre Europe commissioned RAND Europe to conduct a scoping study to understand constraints of operating in Africa, as well as barriers to the efficient coordination of airlift and other logistic support in the continent. This narrated presentation describes the project, including key findings.
Aug 20, 2021
Journal Article
Innovative Technologies Shaping the 2040 Battlefield
This study provides an assessment of the risks, challenges and opportunities related to new and emerging technologies that are most expected to shape the future battlefield out to 2040.
Aug 4, 2021
Journal Article
Written Evidence Submitted by RAND Europe: SPDF0020 Space Defence
This document provides RAND Europe's submission of evidence in relation to the UK House of Commons Defence Select Committee's July 2021 call for evidence on space defence.
Jul 30, 2021
Report
Strategic Airlift in Africa: Understanding Challenges and Opportunities for the Movement Coordination Centre Europe
The Movement Coordination Centre Europe commissioned RAND Europe to conduct a scoping study to understand constraints of operating in Africa, as well as barriers to the efficient coordination of airlift and other logistic support in the continent.
Jul 22, 2021
Report
Understanding the Ministry of Defence's Wider Contribution to UK Prosperity: Measuring Defence Output
The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD)'s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) commissioned RAND Europe to examine different approaches to assessing UK Defence's contribution to national prosperity.
Jul 14, 2021
Report
Understanding the Value of Defence: Towards a Defence Value Proposition for the UK
The UK Ministry of Defence asked RAND to develop a 'Defence Value Proposition' to provide a better understanding of why defence exists and how the value it brings to the nation can be better articulated to government, partners and the wider public.
Jul 13, 2021
Report
Persistent Challenges in UK Defence Equipment Acquisition
This paper identifies underlying and cross-cutting factors that contribute to seemingly intractable challenges in defence equipment acquisition programmes. It also discusses measures that could help address these inefficiencies going forward.
Jun 23, 2021
Report
Defence Mobilisation Planning Comparative Study: An Examination of Overseas Planning
Against the 2020 Defence Strategic Update, the authors use evidence from several countries to highlight the merits of a 'total defence' approach to mobilisation planning for Australia with the goal of meeting contemporary threats.
May 3, 2021
Journal Article
Strategic and Legal Implications of Emerging Dual-Use ASAT Systems
This article addresses the dual-use conundrum of space technology, examining where the threshold lies for anti-satellite systems.
2021
Report
A Changing Climate: Exploring the Implications of Climate Change for UK Defence and Security
This study explores the effects of climate change on UK defence and security and proposes a conceptual framework to support the UK Ministry of Defence in assessing and adapting climate change-related risks.
Jun 16, 2020
Report
Enhancing deterrence and defence on NATO's northern flank: Allied perspectives on strategic options for Norway
To inform ongoing strategy and policy development, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence commissioned RAND to gather insights into key allies' perspectives on strategic opportunities and challenges for NATO deterrence and defence in the High North.
Mar 25, 2020
Journal Article
Cyber Threats to NATO from a Multi-Domain Perspective
This paper situates cyber threats in the wider context of evolving multi-domain operations (MDO) theory and practice.
2020
Journal Article
Exploring Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035 and Beyond: Insights from the 2018 Update of the Long-Term Strand of the Capability Development Plan
In this report, RAND Europe describes and analyses the background and importance of the ongoing long-term revision of the Capability Development Plan - a strategic picture of European military capabilities regularly updated by the EDA.
Jul 6, 2018
Journal Article
A Constant Eye on the Future: Identifying Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035
Alex Hall, James Black and Marta Kepe of RAND Europe and Frank Bekkers of the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) describe and analyse the background and importance of the ongoing long-term revision of the Capability Development Plan (CDP).
Dec 15, 2017
Report
Defence and security after Brexit: Understanding the possible implications of the UK's decision to leave the EU — Compendium report
This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union ('Brexit'), whether for the UK, Europe or globally.
Mar 5, 2017
Report
Defence and security after Brexit: Understanding the possible implications of the UK's decision to leave the EU — Overview report
This RAND study examines the potential defence and security implications of the United Kingdom's decision to leave the European Union ('Brexit'), whether for the UK, Europe or globally.
Mar 5, 2017
Report
Defence and security after Brexit: A snapshot of international perspectives on the implications of the UK's decision to leave the EU
This RAND Perspective provides a brief exploration of selected international perspectives on the possible defence and security implications of Brexit.
Mar 5, 2017
Report
Troubled waters: a snapshot of security challenges in the Mediterranean region
This publication is part of a series of four RAND Perspectives (PE) each focusing on different challenges in the Mediterranean region. The focus of this PE is on defence and security issues and their implications for regional stability.
Jan 26, 2017
Report
The moral component of cross-domain conflict
The study considers the body of work on morality and armed conflict in the future operating environment and provides insights on the ways in which new ways of fighting may challenge traditional moral principles.
Oct 20, 2016
Journal Article
Brexit: What Have We Learned So Far?
On 23 June 2016, the British electorate defied the expectations of political leaders, financial markets and foreign allies by voting to withdraw from the European Union.
Oct 1, 2016
Report
Human and Organisational Factors in Major Accident Prevention: A Snapshot of the Academic Landscape
RAND Europe was commissioned by TOTAL E&P Research and Development to consider the role of human and organisational factors in major accident prevention in the oil and gas sector. The work drew on insights from industrial and academic experts.
Jul 20, 2016
Report
Travel in Britain in 2035: Future scenarios and their implications for technology innovation
In this study, we developed future scenarios to examine the influence of technologies on travel and interviewed experts about the key policy implications. From these, we developed a strategic roadmap to inform future UK policies and investments.
Jun 24, 2016
Research Brief
Travel in Britain in 2035: Future scenarios and their implications for technology
By 2035 UK transport infrastructure may be severely congested. Innovate UK commissioned this study to explore how technology might address the congestion problem by using capacity more efficiently, supporting modal choice and managing travel demand.
Jun 24, 2016
Report
Australia's Naval Shipbuilding Enterprise: Preparing for the 21st Century
RAND researchers explore the feasibility of Australia sustaining a domestic naval shipbuilding industry compared with buying ships from foreign shipbuilders. The authors outline the complex consequences and trade-offs of both options.
Apr 15, 2015
Report
The Economic Consequences of Investing in Shipbuilding: Case Studies in the United States and Sweden
This report assesses the economic impacts that a shipbuilder has on its local community and region. The authors utilize a case study methodology to examine two U.S. shipbuilders and the Saab Aeronautics Gripen program in Sweden.
Apr 15, 2015
Report
Innovation Models: Enabling new defence solutions and enhanced benefits from science and technology
The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) commissioned RAND Europe to conduct a study of innovation models and make recommendations on changes the MOD could make to better harness and absorb innovation from external sources.
Mar 4, 2015
Research Brief
Innovation models for defence
The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) commissioned RAND Europe to conduct a study of innovation models and make recommendations on changes the MOD could make to better harness and absorb innovation from external sources.
Mar 4, 2015