International Economic Relations

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America Is Winning Against China in Oceania

The United States retains enormous advantages in Oceania and should not be alarmed by China's security activities in the region. Washington should nevertheless keep a close eye on Beijing's moves, particularly against small and weak nations that will struggle to counter Chinese coercive activities on their own.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Violence in Sudan, Alcohol Use, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the violence in Sudan, preventing alcohol-related deaths, the North Korean nuclear threat, and more.

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A Civilian U.S. 'Joint Chiefs' for Economic Competition with China?

China's aggressive activities are presenting a serious, sustained challenge to the international order. To position itself for this new era, the United States could create a civilian equivalent to the Joint Chiefs of Staff with a mandate to manage the expanding role of U.S. civilian departments in geopolitical and economic competition.

Barry Pavel @BarryPavel, Daniel Egel

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

Brian Michael Jenkins @BrianMJenkins

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How the Dutch Approached Brexit

The impact of Brexit on the Netherlands is significant. The Dutch government would have preferred the UK to stay in the EU. But despite all this, the Netherlands approached Brexit with relative clarity of purpose and the administration of the program brought a satisfactory outcome.

Stijn Hoorens @StijnHoorens, Fook Nederveen

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Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do

In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Politics of Ukrainian Reconstruction

When fighting subsides, Ukraine may undergo reconstruction on the scale of the post–World War II Marshall Plan. Debate is ramping up about core issues, such as the scope of reconstruction, sources of funding, and reforms needed for success. Ukraine and the West might begin now to forge consensus on these issues.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz, Khrystyna Holynska, et al.

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Export Controls Give ASML and the Netherlands an Opportunity to Lead by Example. Will They Take It?

Dutch tech company ASML makes the complex machines required to construct advanced microchips, and it sells many of these machines to China. Harmonization of export controls between the United States and the Netherlands could limit China's development of military technologies and its human rights abuses.

Martijn Rasser, Jason Matheny @JasonGMatheny

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Russian Aircraft Keep Crashing. Could Sanctions Be the Cause?

At least six fixed-wing Russian aircraft have crashed over Russian-controlled airspace since September. Sanctions placed on Russia by the West could well be affecting Russia's ability to manufacture and maintain parts needed to keep aircraft safe.

Michael Bohnert @mbohnert

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America's Pacific Island Summit: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The United States hosted its first Pacific Islands Summit in September. Pacific Island leaders and observers from over a dozen states participated in the event and pledged to jointly tackle various challenges. But this historic summit was hardly an absolute success, and should be put within its proper context.

Derek Grossman @DerekJGrossman

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Russia's Su-35: Are Its Military Aircraft Exports Headed for a Fall?

Squeezed by sanctions and pressed to replace equipment destroyed in Ukraine, Russia's aerospace sector isn't likely to have combat aircraft to sell, even if it wants to. If purchasing countries start to change their minds and invest in drones and other less-expensive precision guided munitions, the market for Russian combat aircraft might start to rapidly decline.

Peter A. Wilson, John V. Parachini @JohnParachini

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American Investment in Mideast to Stay Focused on Larger Economies Amid Ukraine War

China is often viewed as the economic powerhouse in the Middle East, but the United States has extensive trade, investment, and financial links. U.S. economic involvement in the Middle East is likely to stay focused on larger markets in line with economic growth, without dramatic shifts in location or magnitude.

Howard J. Shatz @HowardJShatz

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National Security After Roe, Women Veterans, COVID-19's Lasting Effects: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how overturning Roe could affect national security, supporting women veterans, responding to the next pandemic, and more.

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Sanctioning Business Leaders in Russia

Western sanctions are ensnaring more Russian business leaders, some of whom say they are unjustly targeted. Can those in the private sector reduce their risks of being designated? Perhaps, if they make difficult choices.

William Courtney @courtneywmh