The Islamic State (Terrorist Organization)

essay

Civilian Casualties: Lessons from the Battle for Raqqa

The United States' emphasis on minimizing civilian harm in Raqqa, Syria, was quite clear and strong up and down the chain of command. But the way in which the U.S. military waged war in Raqqa too often undercut that commitment. The Pentagon asked RAND to find out what happened.

commentary

The Islamic State in Afghanistan Is Down, but Not Out

The Afghan Taliban is on the verge of entering into a power-sharing agreement with the Afghan government in a peace deal facilitated by the United States. Washington seems to be holding out hope that the deal will stabilize the country. But the Islamic State Khorasan Province remains a concern. The Islamic State in Afghanistan may be down, but it's not out.

Abdul Sayed, Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Repression in Mozambique Is Stoking an Islamist Insurgency, Risking Wider Unrest

While Southern Africa has largely remained immune from violent extremism, the situation in northern Mozambique threatens to destabilize the country and could potentially spread to other parts of the region. To effectively counter the growing threat, the government could devise a less heavy handed approach.

Hilary Matfess, Alexander Noyes @alexhnoyes

commentary

Iraq's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops Is Iran's True Victory

If American soldiers are ejected from Iraq, the consequences may be far-reaching and damaging to U.S. strategic interests. What options remain to reset the relationship between Washington and Baghdad?

Ben Connable

commentary

Baghdadi's Death Will Make Global Affiliates More Independent

The recent death of Islamic State leader and self-proclaimed caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a major blow to the Islamic State. Baghdadi held a kind of elusive charisma for the organization. He will be replaced, but this does not mean that the Islamic State will simply go back to business as usual.

Colin P. Clarke, Amarnath Amarasingam

commentary

How the U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Provides a Boost to ISIS

President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria could provide the ISIS terrorist group with the time and space to regrow its organization and extend its networks throughout the Middle East. The longer-term strategic effects of the decision could reverberate in the region for years to come.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

The Syrian Withdrawal: Where Things Stand

Without an orderly process for its national security decisions, the Trump administration has defaulted to the worst option regarding Syria. The sudden withdrawal of U.S. forces has left an opening for Russia to exploit. It also left the Kurds, a U.S. partner, to fend off a Turkish assault.

James Dobbins @Jim_Dobbins, Jeffrey Martini

commentary

The Terrorist Threat Posed by Neglect and Indifference

Western countries have seemingly washed their hands when it comes to the aftermath of ISIS. By ignoring the threat and leaving it to the Iraqis and Syrian Kurds to deal with European citizens in detention camps, Western nations are helping the terrorists' ideology persist.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Southeast Asia Loves ISIS, but Is the Feeling Mutual?

As the ISIS core in Iraq and Syria attempts to rebuild, Baghdadi and his lieutenants will have to make difficult decisions about where to allocate resources. Now that the caliphate is gone and ISIS must transform into an insurgency, the largely untested lands of Southeast Asia may yield rich rewards.

Zachary Abuza, Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Al Qaeda Is Ready to Attack You Again

As al Qaeda continues to evolve, one of the most pressing questions is to what extent the group is still focused on attacking the West. Does the absence of spectacular attacks attributed to al Qaeda since 9/11 represent a lack of capability or merely a shift in priorities?

Colin P. Clarke, Charles Lister

blog

Gun Policy, Cannabis, ISIS: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap looks at gun policy in America, the cannabis market in Washington state, countering an ISIS comeback, and more.

blog

ISIS, Homelessness, India's Election: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on what can be done about ISIS detainees, a program that helps reduce homelessness, Modi's reelection in India, and more.

commentary

We're Just Beginning to Grasp the Toll of the Islamic State's Archaeological Looting in Syria

During the Islamic State's rise, looted artifacts were said to be a significant source of income for the group. But no one had identified the value, using empirical data and systematic calculations, of the artifacts that were known to exist in Syria's archaeological sites. Until now.

Fiona Greenland, Oya Topçuoğlu, et al.

commentary

Baghdadi Resurfaces: What It Means for ISIS's Global Terror Campaign

With last week's release of a video of Abu Bakr Baghdadi, ISIS showed that it's still got some life left—literally. The most important message to take away from the Baghdadi video may be that the Islamic State does not need territory to survive and even thrive.

Colin P. Clarke

commentary

Sri Lanka's Easter Attacks: Dismantling Myths to Prevent the Next Attack

On Easter Sunday, suicide bombers hit six locations across Sri Lanka, killing more than 250 people. Even before ISIS claimed responsibility, there was no obvious connection to the quarter-century of violence that afflicted the nation until 2009. It is worth dismantling a few myths that might prevent better preparation for future attacks.

Jonah Blank