Craig A. Bond

Research Quality Assurance (QA) Manager, RAND Arroyo Center; Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School; Editor-in-Chief, RAND Journal of Economics

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in agricultural and resource economics, University of California, Davis; M.S. in economics, Colorado State University; B.A. in economics, Frostburg State University

One Page Bio

Overview

Craig Bond is an applied microeconomist who specializes in natural resource and environmental economics, including stochastic dynamic modeling, resource valuation, consumer and producer choice, and applied welfare economics.

While at RAND, his work has spanned many topics, including risk in acquisitions, recruiting, unit readiness, tour lengths and the impact of PCS moves on families, general economic analysis, and the economic impacts of various potential events for the military. On the civilian side, he has worked on environmental and economic impacts of long-term changes along the Louisiana coast, the economics of post-disaster recovery in Puerto Rico, modeling strategies for estimating the benefits associated with investments in resilience (including the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model), evaluating the technical transition of the nation’s telephone system to more modern technologies, among other projects. His most recent work is supporting decisions related to nature-based solutions/green infrastructure in various communities.

Past research includes a diverse array of applied projects, including the optimal management of high elevation ecosystems, the economic impacts of invasive species, and multiple stated-preference studies include off-highway vehicle (OHV) recreation, Stellar sea lion habitat, attributes of irrigation technologies, high elevation forests, food attributes, and attributes of programs that pay for ecosystem services.

Methodologically, he has extensive experience with non-market valuation, as well as panel data and discrete choice econometric methods, and has designed a number of choice-based experiments. His structural modelling work focuses on stochastic dynamic programming approaches to adaptive management planning and assessment and sustainability, as well as other economic modelling applications.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Visiting Associate Professor, University of Stavanger, Norway

Recent Projects

Army Cost-per-Effect Analysis
Economic Evaluation Framework for NBS for Winter Haven, FL
Western Balkans Transportation
Puerto Rico Recovery Plan
Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana

Selected Publications

Bond, Craig A., Ellen M. Pint, Stephan B. Seabrook, and Christina Panis, Soldier Preferences and Retention Effects of Changes in Army Reserve Training Requirements: An Exploration of Revealed and Stated Behavior, RAND Corporation (RR-A750-1), 2021

Fischbach, Jordan R., Michael T. Wilson, Craig A. Bond, Ajay K. Kochhar, David Catt, and Devin Tierney, Managing Heavy Rainfall with Green Infrastructure: An Evaluation in Pittsburgh's Negley Run Watershed, RAND Corporation (RR-A564-1), 2020

Finucane, M.L., M.J. Blum, R. Ramchand, A.M. Parker, S.Nataraj, N. Clancy, G. Cecchine, A. Chandra, T. Slack, G. Hobor, R.J. Ferreira, K. Luu, A. Lesen, and C.A. Bond, "Advancing Community Resilience Research and Practice: Moving from “Me” to “We” to “3D”," Journal of Risk Research, 2019

Bond, Craig A., Aaron Strong, Troy D. Smith, Megan Andrew, John S. Crown, Kathryn A. Edwards, Gabriella C. Gonzalez, Italo A. Gutierrez, Lauren Kendrick, Jill E. Luoto, Kyle Pratt, Karishma V. Patel, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Mark Stalczynski, Patricia K. Tong, and Melanie A. Zaber, Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy: A Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, RAND Corporation (RR-2600-DHS), 2020

Bond, Craig A., M. Wade Markel, Olesya Tkacheva, Richard E. Darilek, Robert G. Fix, Bryan W. Hallmark, Henry A. Leonard, Duncan Long, and Todd Nichols, A Stated Preference Analysis of the Determinants of Unit and Soldier Operational Effectiveness, RAND Corporation (RR-1745-A), 2019

Groves, David G., Debra Knopman, Neil Berg, Craig A. Bond, James Syme, and Robert J. Lempert, Adapting Land Use and Water Management Plans to a Changing Climate in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida, RAND Corporation (RR-1932-MCF), 2018

Bond, Craig A., Aaron Strong, Nicholas E. Burger, Sarah Weilant, Uzaib Saya, and Anita Chandra, Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Framework Development and Initial Case Studies, RAND Corporation (RR-2129-RF), 2017

Barnes, S.R., C. Bond, N. Burger, K. Anania, A. Strong, S. Weilant, and S. Virgets, "Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana," Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics , 4(3), 2017

Honors & Awards

2016 Bronze Medal Award, RAND Corporation
2015 Spotlight on Innovation Award, RAND Corporation
2012 Outstanding Research Award, College of Agricultural Sciences, Colorado State University

Commentary

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Planning for the Upcoming Hurricane Season in Light of COVID-19
What if Hurricane Katrina had hit during a pandemic? Emergency planners can prepare for this scenario by evaluating current response system capacity, evacuation and sheltering procedures, food and supply issues, and more.
May 4, 2020
Vox
California

Creating a Smart Market for California Water
A smart market approach could reduce the transaction costs of trading water in California, allow the price of water to better match its value, and bring that value to the state.
Sep 13, 2015
Orange County Register

Publications

Report
Resources Required to Meet the U.S. Army Reserve's Enlisted Recruiting Requirements Under Alternative Recruiting Goals, Conditions, and Eligibility Policies
Several U.S. Army resources and policies work together to produce recruits. The authors present a model—the Reserve Recruiting Resource Model—designed to optimize resources and policies to achieve future Army Reserve recruiting goals.
Jul 14, 2022
Report
Soldier Preferences and Retention Effects of Changes in Army Reserve Training Requirements: An Exploration of Revealed and Stated Behavior
The authors examine how changes in training requirements affect soldiers' interest in staying in the U.S. Army Reserve and how their civilian employment and family situations influence that decision.
Nov 16, 2021
Report
The Army's Local Economic Effects: Appendix B, Volume 1: Alabama Through Minnesota; 2nd Edition
This appendix to the second edition of The Army's Local Economic Effects describes overall economic effects by state, details by fiscal year from 2014 to 2017, and a parsing of data by congressional district for Alabama through Minnesota.
Mar 8, 2021
Report
The Army's Local Economic Effects: Appendix B, Volume 2: Mississippi Through Wyoming; 2nd Edition
This appendix to the second edition of The Army's Local Economic Effects describes overall economic effects by state, details by fiscal year from 2014 to 2017, and a parsing of data by congressional district for Mississippi through Wyoming.
Mar 8, 2021
Report
The Army's Local Economic Effects: 2nd Edition
This report updates a previous report with findings on the economic activity supported by national-level Army spending in each of the 435 congressional districts for fiscal years 2014 through 2017.
Mar 8, 2021
Research Brief
How Can Green Infrastructure Help to Manage Rainfall in an Urban Watershed?
This brief describes a proposed system of green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed, evaluates its potential benefits and costs, and presents recommendations to improve urban stormwater management.
Oct 29, 2020
Report
Managing Heavy Rainfall with Green Infrastructure: An Evaluation in Pittsburgh's Negley Run Watershed
RAND researchers estimate the potential benefits and costs of a green stormwater infrastructure (GSI) system in Pittsburgh's Negley Run watershed, evaluate a series of GSI investments, and make recommendations to improve urban stormwater management.
Oct 26, 2020
Report
Challenges and Opportunities for the Puerto Rico Economy: A Review of Evidence and Options Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017
The authors review Puerto Rico's economic history and provide analysis following the 2017 hurricane season that serves as the context for a set of principles and actions in the recovery plan for rebuilding a healthy economy.
Sep 30, 2020
Report
Supporting a 21st Century Workforce in Puerto Rico: Challenges and Options for Improving Puerto Rico's Workforce System Following Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017
A workforce development system that supports Puerto Rico's economic development requires a K through postsecondary education system that emphasizes individuals' career pathways and aligns training with the evolving labor market and business needs.
Sep 30, 2020
Journal Article
Advancing Community Resilience Research and Practice: Moving from "Me" to "We" to "3d"
In this article, we provide a rationale for moving research and practice towards an adaptive systems framework, drawing on the cascading challenges that Gulf of Mexico coastal communities have endured since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill disaster.
Sep 16, 2020
Report
Building Community Resilience to Large Oil Spills: Findings and Recommendations from a Synthesis of Research on the Mental Health, Economic, and Community Distress Associated with the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
In this report, the authors explore how communities, government officials, nongovernmental organizations, businesses, and scientists can build community resilience to large oil spills.
Jul 6, 2020
Draft
The Impact of the Deepwater Horizon Spill on Commercial Blue Crab Landings
Examines the effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on landings, revenues, and effort in the commercial blue crab fishery.
Feb 10, 2020
Report
A Stated Preference Analysis of the Determinants of Unit and Soldier Operational Effectiveness
The authors assess the relative importance of component status relative to a number of potential determinants of operational effectiveness, including but not limited to unit type, training level, experience in country, and associated costs and risk.
May 13, 2019
Report
Enhancing Family Stability During a Permanent Change of Station: A Review of Disruptions and Policies
According to the U.S. Department of Defense, approximately one-third of military service members experience a permanent change of station (PCS) move every year. The authors researched programs that address PCS-related family disruptions.
Oct 18, 2018
Report
Adapting Land Use and Water Management Plans to a Changing Climate in Miami-Dade and Broward Counties, Florida
This report addresses the vulnerability to flooding, saltwater intrusion, and related issues in Southeast Florida and describes a model and decision support tool to help regional planners and decisionmakers better focus on the most vulnerable areas.
Jun 6, 2018
Draft
Nutritious or Nuisance on Net? Values of Natural Capital in a Competitive Terrestrial Rangeland Ecosystem
Illustrates how the value of rangelands ecosystems across the western United States may change as invasive species alter the landscape.
Aug 22, 2017
Report
Guide to the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model
This guide provides an overview of and guidance on the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model, a framework designed to help policymakers and practitioners estimate the resilience dividend from projects they are considering or have implemented.
Aug 1, 2017
Report
Resilience Dividend Valuation Model: Framework Development and Initial Case Studies
This report describes the development of the Resilience Dividend Valuation Model, a complementary framework designed to help communities estimate the resilience dividend from resilience projects or investment.
Aug 1, 2017
Journal Article
Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana
This study quantifies the economic assets and activity that is at risk from the process of land loss in coastal Louisiana in a future without restoration and protection efforts to minimize or mitigate land loss.
Jul 19, 2017
Tool
Database of Potential Sources of Information on Fisheries, Tourism, and Oil Spill Claims
The objective of this Consortium for Resilient Gulf Communities database is to make users aware of sources of information that may be less widely known than standard databases of economic activity such as those published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
May 23, 2017
Draft
Estimating the Effects of the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on Fisheries Landings: A Preliminary Exploration
Reports results from an ex-post analysis of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill using publicly available, routinely collected data on landings, revenues, and fishing effort for select fish species in the Gulf.
Jan 7, 2017
Report
U.S. Consumer Preferences for Telephone and Internet Services: Evidence from the RAND American Life Panel
This report analyzes data on fixed telephone (landline), mobile telephone, fixed Internet, and mobile Internet service preferences. It provides population-level estimates of the services found in U.S. households and the importance of each service.
Nov 17, 2016
Report
Tour Lengths, Permanent Changes of Station, and Alternatives for Savings and Improved Stability
This study examined the workings of U.S. Department of Defense permanent change of station programs to determine the potential for savings that could accrue by increasing the amount of time between moves.
Feb 8, 2016
Tool
Interactive Database of the Army's Local Economic Effects
This interactive, web-based tool accompanies The Army's Local Economic Effects, and maps the economic effects of national-level U.S. Army spending for each state broken down by fiscal year (2012-2014) and congressional district.
Jan 4, 2016
Report
The Army's Local Economic Effects: Appendix B, Volume I: Alabama Through Minnesota
This appendix to The Army's Local Economic Effects provides descriptions of the overall economic effects for each state, details by fiscal year from 2012-2014, and a parsing of the data by congressional district for Alabama through Minnesota.
Dec 10, 2015
Report
The Army's Local Economic Effects
This report presents findings on the economic activity supported by national-level Army spending in each of the 435 congressional districts for fiscal years 2012-2014.
Dec 10, 2015
Report
The Army's Local Economic Effects: Appendix B, Volume II: Mississippi Through Wyoming
This appendix to The Army's Local Economic Effects provides descriptions of the overall economic effects for each state, details by fiscal year from 2012-2014, and a parsing of the data by congressional district for Mississippi through Wyoming.
Dec 10, 2015
Report
The Costs of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
This study estimates the net costs and benefits if the long-standing conflict between Israelis and Palestinians follows its current trajectory over the next ten years, relative to five other possible trajectories that the conflict could take.
Sep 8, 2015
Report
Reducing the Cultivation of Opium Poppies in Southern Afghanistan
Identifies drivers of opium poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan and assesses effects of programs to promote rural development, eradicate opium poppies, or otherwise create incentives for farmers to cultivate less opium poppy.
Jun 17, 2015
Report
Developing a Methodology for Risk-Informed Trade-Space Analysis in Acquisition
Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, acquisition decisionmakers can understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions.
May 19, 2015
Report
The Likely Effects of Price Increases on Commissary Patronage: A Review of the Literature
To determine the effects of increased commissary prices, should the taxpayer subsidy to the Defense Commissary Agency be reduced, this report reviews how price changes have affected grocers and analyzes potential revenue changes for commissaries.
Mar 27, 2015
Draft
Valuing Coastal Natural Capital in a Bioeconomic Framework
Presents a method and model that can be used to consistently value a system of interacting natural capital stocks; namely, wetlands and a fishery.
Jan 26, 2015
Report
The Adoption of New Smart-Grid Technologies: Incentives, Outcomes, and Opportunities
RAND Corporation researchers examine empirical evidence related to smart-grid development, discuss some entrepreneurial opportunities associated with smart-grid data, and offer policy suggestions for overcoming barriers.
Jan 15, 2015
Journal Article
Economic Evaluation of Coastal Land Loss in Louisiana
This report presents an economic evaluation of assets and activities at risk from land loss and associated storm damage in coastal Louisiana. The results show a significant level of risk to economic assets and activity in Louisiana.
2015