Alyssa Demus

Associate International/Defense Researcher

Santa Monica Office

Education

M.A. in foreign policy and national security, American University; B.A. in international relations, University of Southern California; B.A. in political science, University of Southern California

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Alyssa Demus is an associate international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research examines Eurasian political and security issues; information warfare and influence campaigns; efforts to counter adversary influence efforts; and perceptions and decisionmaking. Demus is fluent in Ukrainian—a skill she has employed in her research to include interviewing key government, military, security service, and civil society sector interlocutors.

She earned an M.A. in foreign policy and national security from American University's School of International Service, and a B.A. in international relations with a concentration in Russian and Eurasian affairs and B.A. in political science from the University of Southern California.

Research Focus

Languages

Ukrainian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: BBC World News; WBUR; Press Play, KCRW

Commentary

Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Russia

The Trouble with Russian Blacklisting
Analysis, informed by interactions with Russians, offers Western leaders a window into Russia. Blacklists hinder this process. With the stakes so high, much depends on experts' success in getting their analysis right.
Dec 15, 2022
Foreign Policy
Russia

War of the Worlds: How Cognitive Dissonance and Repression Shape Russian Perceptions of the Conflict in Ukraine
Cognitive dissonance theory offers a compelling explanation for one of the confounding phenomena emerging from the war in Ukraine—Russians who refuse to believe their Ukrainian family members' lived experiences of the war. How is it that of the two cognitions Russians are wrestling with, the Kremlin's manufactured truth often prevails?
Jun 29, 2022
InkStick
Ukraine

Reopening Old Wounds: Two Stories, One Lesson
The shocking events unfolding in Ukraine have reopened old wounds for two RAND researchers. Their personal stories stand as testaments that the traumas inflicted by Russia's war on Ukraine will echo for decades to come.
Apr 16, 2022
Inkstick
Information Operations

Don't Sleep on Russian Information War Capabilities
Ukraine looks to have Russia beat in countering Russian disinformation. But this is only part of the story. Instead of fixating on Russia's missteps, policymakers and analysts would benefit from studying Ukraine's sophisticated information campaign while bearing in mind that Russia retains significant information warfare capabilities and a willingness to use them.
Apr 5, 2022
Defense One

Publications

Report
The Russian General Staff: Understanding the Military's Decisionmaking Role in a "Besieged Fortress"
In this report, the authors develop a foundational text for policymakers and warfighters to improve collective understanding of the Russian General Staff, including its capacity to condition Russia's national security decisionmaking process.
Mar 22, 2023
Report
Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity
In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.
Feb 13, 2023
Report
Rivalry in the Information Sphere: Russian Conceptions of Information Confrontation
Information confrontation, with historical roots in Russian (and Soviet) military thinking, is an important element of Russian military strategy. The Ukrainian experience offers insights into Russia's present-day and future use of information confrontation and hybrid warfare.
Aug 18, 2022
Report
Russian and Ukrainian Perspectives on the Concept of Information Confrontation: Translations, 2002–2020
This volume compiles texts from leading members of the military-scientific communities in Russia and Ukraine and illustrates how decisionmakers in these countries understand and debate information weapons and information influence.
Aug 18, 2022
Report
Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning
In this report, the authors draw on a framework developed by the Russian military science community to gain insight into the likelihood and character of future war and the correlation of military potential between Russia and potential adversaries.
Jun 23, 2022
Report
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.
Nov 29, 2021
Report
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality
What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.
Aug 16, 2021
Report
Understanding and Defending Against Russia's Malign and Subversive Information Efforts in Europe
The authors describe apparent efforts by Russia and its agents to use information to shape Russia's operating environment, and they identify possible defensive approaches for United States European Command and its partners.
Aug 16, 2021
Research Brief
Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?
This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Combating Foreign Disinformation on Social Media: Study Overview and Conclusions
Disinformation campaigns on social media pose a nuanced threat to the United States, but the response remains ad hoc and uncoordinated. This overview of a five-volume series presents ways to better prepare for this new age of information warfare.
Jul 19, 2021
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Analysis of Russian Ground Force Deployment Capabilities and Limitations
Analysis of Russian military capabilities reveals stark limitations in Russia's ability to safely and effectively deploy and sustain ground forces around the world.
May 27, 2020
Report
Russia's Limit of Advance: Scenarios
Russia's ability to deploy military forces around the world is significantly depleted from the Soviet era. This report describes the strengths and weaknesses of Russia's ground force deployment capacity.
May 27, 2020
Report
Understanding Russian Subversion: Patterns, Threats, and Responses
This Perspective examines the interests that inspire Russia's use of subversion, the means involved, recent events that illustrate attempts at Russian subversion, and ways to improve the response to subversion attempts.
Feb 18, 2020
Report
Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends
The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. This report focuses on the information warfare activities of Russia and China.
Sep 4, 2019
Report
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.
Nov 20, 2018
Report
Promoting Joint Warfighting Proficiency: The Role of Doctrine in Preparing Airmen for Joint Operations
This report describes the differences and similarities between Air Force and joint doctrine and identifies ways to increase doctrinal alignment. It also evaluates the potential role of doctrine in increasing airmen's joint warfighting proficiency.
Aug 16, 2018
Report
Rethinking the Regional Order for Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
This Perspective proposes a new approach to the regional order in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia that would foster greater stability in the region and reduce dangerous tensions in Russia-West relations.
Jun 13, 2018
Report
Getting Out from "In-Between": Perspectives on the Regional Order in Post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia
The perspectives collected in these conference proceedings explore alternatives to the current approaches to the regional order for the states "in between" the West and Russia -- Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Mar 8, 2018

Quoted

Researchers working to understand what causes adversaries to go to war have found that the drivers of escalation include the absence of accessible information, leading to inadequate conclusions about an adversary. In other words, states are more prone to go to war if their leaders don't get reliable, unvarnished information about their adversary's aims, concerns, and worldview.
Source: Foreign Policy
The high visibility of the attack on the [Kerch Strait Bridge] and its reverberations across social media may contribute to the already slumping morale of Russian troops. For Vladimir Putin—who christened the bridge's unveiling in 2018, thereby tying his own image to the completion of the hulking structure—the strike could be perceived as a personal humiliation.
Source: Yahoo! News