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Discrete Choice Modeling

Discrete choice models allow researchers to analyze and predict how people's choices are influenced by their personal characteristics and by the alternatives available to them. RAND has used this methodology in such areas as transport modeling, examining consumer responsiveness to advertising, and understanding preferences for government services and health care.

Commentary
What Factors Affecting Retention Matter Most to Teachers?
Maintaining an adequate supply of teachers is a challenge and an area of significant concern. Rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, a set of interventions developed to target the preferences and expectations of specific groups of teachers is likely to be most effective.
Apr 5, 2021
Report
How to Avoid Aggression or Escalation in a Crisis
Anticipating how an opponent may be reasoning, and then seeking ways to alter that thinking can inform an effective influence strategy. Deterring adversaries by threat of punishment alone is often ineffective. A better approach might involve a mix of several measures, such as being able to thwart aggression, reassurances to reduce the adversary's fears, and relationship-building.
Feb 16, 2021
Commentary
Finding the Real Will of the People
It's not surprising that the British Parliament is struggling to find a solution to the Brexit impasse. That's because the 2016 vote revealed nothing about the sort of Brexit people actually wanted. When researchers asked Brits to choose between four options in 2017, there was no obvious winner.
Apr 30, 2019
Commentary
We Asked the British Public What Kind of Brexit They Want—and a Norway-Like Deal Is the Clear Winner
The Brexit referendum outcome reveals very little about what people actually wanted. But a RAND Europe study of what people value about the EU finds that their priorities map most squarely onto a Norway-style model for future relations between the UK and the EU.
Oct 11, 2018
Project
British People Prefer a Soft Brexit, If Any
The political landscape of the UK has changed dramatically in the wake of the Brexit referendum. Since last year, support for a deal based on membership of the European Economic Area has increased from 38 to 43 percent. Even Leave voters are shifting to a softer Brexit.
Oct 11, 2018
Journal Article
Support for EEA-Style Brexit Has Increased
Support for a Brexit deal based on membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) has increased. EEA membership is now supported by 43 per cent of Britons, up from 38 per cent in 2017, making it the most popular Brexit option.
Oct 10, 2018
Report
What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A longitudinal study examining the "trade-offs" people would be willing to make in reaching a Brexit deal — technical addendum
A study using stated preference discrete choice experiments to quantify the British people's preferences for their relationship with the European Union after Brexit.
Oct 10, 2018
Journal Article
Strict Duality and Overlapping Productivity Distributions Between Formal and Informal Firms
This paper deepens the understanding of informality by investigating important heterogeneity in the overlap of productivity distributions across industries.
Sep 19, 2018
Report
Quantifying travellers' willingness to pay for the Harbour Tunnel in Copenhagen: A stated choice study
This study uses a stated choice experiment to quantify travellers' willingness to pay for a tolled tunnel in Copenhagen. Discrete choice models are used to quantify travellers' value of travel time savings.
Mar 20, 2018
Commentary
Finding the Common Ground: Building a Brexit Around Trade and Single Market Access
The priority for the UK government during Brexit negotiations should be access to the single market and free trade deals with countries outside the EU. This would build on the common ground felt by the majority of Britons about what they feel are the most valuable aspects of the UK's future relationship with Europe.
Jul 14, 2017
Commentary
Brexit: So Tell Me What You Want, What You Really Really Want
The 'In/Out' referendum question encouraged the view that Brexit was a binary choice. But how did people understand these two options and their implications? The results of stated preference discrete choice experiments hold the answer.
Jul 14, 2017
News Release
British Public Reject “No Deal” on Brexit
The British people disagree with the claim that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” when it comes to negotiations for leaving the EU. They want a deal on Brexit and are willing to compromise to get one.
Jul 14, 2017
Journal Article
British Public Rejects “No Deal” on Brexit
The British people disagree with the claim that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” when it comes to negotiations for leaving the European Union. They want a deal on Brexit and are willing to compromise to get one.
Jul 13, 2017
Report
What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments: Technical addendum
A proof-of-concept study using stated preference discrete choice experiments to quantify the British people's preferences for their relationship with the European Union after Brexit.
Jul 13, 2017
Project
Choice Modelling and Behavioural Research Capabilities at RAND Europe
RAND Europe experts develop and use discrete choice models and conduct consumer behaviour research using revealed preference and stated preference data, depending on the policy question.
Oct 14, 2016
Report
STM3 2011 base: Model parameters and overview
This report summarises the parameters and the key features of the demand models used in the 2011 base version of the Sydney Strategic Travel Model (STM).
Oct 8, 2015
Report
Sydney Strategic Model Re-estimation: Mode-Destination Model
This report documents the re-estimation of the mode-destination model components of the Sydney Strategic Transport Model (STM).
Sep 28, 2015
Report
Time period choice modelling — review of practice
The report presents a review of the time period choice modelling literature undertaken to inform consideration of whether the Sydney Strategic Travel Model should be extended to model time period choice.
Sep 28, 2015
News Release
The Costs of Mobile 'Not-Spots'
Rural areas lacking a mobile phone signal (“not-spots”) experience a negative impact on businesses of all sizes, and could suffer detrimental effects to the long-term sustainability of communities. Residents and visitors would be willing to pay for better mobile coverage.
Mar 12, 2015
Report
The Costs of Mobile “Not-Spots”
Rural areas lacking a mobile phone signal (“not-spots”) experience a negative impact on businesses of all sizes, and could suffer detrimental effects to the long-term sustainability of communities. Residents and visitors would be willing to pay for better mobile coverage.
Mar 12, 2015

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Research conducted by

RAND Europe

Researcher Spotlight

Craig A. Bond

Research Quality Assurance (QA) Manager, RAND Arroyo Center

Craig Bond is an applied microeconomist who specializes in natural resource and environmental economics, including stochastic dynamic modeling, resource valuation, consumer and producer choice, and applied welfare economics.
Avery Calkins

Associate Economist

Avery Calkins is an associate economist at RAND. Her main research interests are labor economics and military personnel policy, with a particular focus on occupational choice and gender. Calkins is currently leading two RAND projects on military recruiting and has contributed to RAND projects on…

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