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Forecasting Methodology

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Report
Which COVID-19 Models Are Useful to Policymakers?
Forecasting models are widely used to inform policymakers about the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effects of policy responses to it. As models are being developed and improved continually, a new RAND framework can assess which ones are suitable for the state of Virginia.
Jul 8, 2020
Commentary
Why Did Nobody See It Coming? How Scenarios Can Help Us Prepare for the Future in an Uncertain World
Scenarios are a useful tool for informing policy, guiding strategies, and accommodating future change. Using scenario planning to target potential problems or areas for development and building resilience can pinpoint robust policies that could be viable across a range of future states.
Jan 28, 2022

Explore Forecasting Methodology

Commentary
Rising to the Challenge: A Methodological Approach to Prioritizing Defense Investments
Meeting the Pentagon's goals to invest efficiently in military capabilities calls for a methodological process hinging on five key elements: aligning strategies with tasks, understanding what drives military innovation, embracing specificity in problem-solving, preparing for an unknown future, and assessing technology investments for prioritization.
May 30, 2023
Report
Elicitation of Climate Information to Support Water Agency Planning: Report of a Workshop with the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Expert elicitation can supplement information from climate models to support adaptation planning. This report describes how the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission used elicitation to identify climate impacts on the city's water supply.
May 8, 2023
Blog
Lessons from the Pandemic, Diplomacy in Ukraine, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap
This week, we discuss lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, planning to end the war in Ukraine, reducing deaths in law enforcement custody, and more.
Nov 4, 2022
Report
How China Might React to Shifting U.S. Posture in the Indo-Pacific
As the U.S. military weighs posture enhancements in the Indo-Pacific to counter China's military development and influence, understanding how China is likely to react to these changes is critical. A new framework offers key factors that U.S. policymakers and military planners should consider.
Oct 25, 2022
Commentary
Better Defense Planning Could Use Statistics to Try to See into the Future
Statistical forecasting models that are grounded in empirical data can provide a valuable supplement to more-traditional methods. These tools allow for a more-structured and robust exploration of the future, its implications, and our assumptions about it.
Oct 19, 2022
Tool
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: An Interactive Tool
This interactive tool uses a dynamic forecasting model to project future demand for U.S. ground forces. The resulting forecasts can help inform U.S. military decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Report
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions
This report identifies potential future demands for U.S. ground forces under different scenarios, including size, location, and capabilities, to inform Army decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Project
Future Uses of Space Out to 2050
To support the UK's National Space Strategy and ensure that it is more future-proof, researchers recommend the UK work more closely with allies, foster innovation, and more.
Mar 2, 2022
Report
Future of the Credit Information Market: Final report
This project identified the factors influencing change and developed four plausible future scenarios for 2030 that provide insights into the implications for the credit information market, the lending markets, consumers and wider society.
Jul 29, 2021
Journal Article
Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
This article is a commentary on a paper by Lustick and Tetlock (2021), on forecasting, decisionmaking, and the intelligence community.
Apr 2, 2021
Journal Article
A Trauma Mortality Prediction Model Based on the ICD-10-CM Lexicon: TMPM-ICD10
The authors constructed an outcome prediction model using only ICD-10-CM acute injury codes and compared its performance with that of the injury severity score.
Jan 28, 2021
Journal Article
Ranking Trauma Center Quality: Can Past Performance Predict Future Performance?
This article explores whether trauma center quality metrics based on historical data can reliably predict future trauma center performance.
Jan 28, 2021
Report
Developing a National Recruiting Difficulty Index
The U.S. Army recognizes that the recruiting environment has a significant impact on its ability to recruit. This report presents a forecasting model that measures recruiting difficulty to forecast a difficult or easy recruiting environment.
Mar 13, 2019
Commentary
How Horizon Scanning Can Give the Military a Technological Edge
Horizon scanning could promote innovative practices and innovation uptake, through the adoption of new ideas, equipment, and methods, with benefits that could positively affect the UK economy as a whole. But a wider mechanism for processing and assessing the selected developments would be needed.
Feb 8, 2019
Journal Article
Dynamic Adaptive Pathways in Downscaled Climate Change Scenarios
Dynamic adaptive pathways are introduced as useful tools to draw out which elements of a potentially infinite scenario space connect with decision-relevant aspects of particular climate-related and non-climate-related risks and response options.
Jan 8, 2019
Report
Homeland Security National Risk Characterization: Risk Assessment Methodology
Presents a risk assessment methodology that can be used to identify the greatest risks to homeland security and support prioritization of U.S. Department of Homeland Security mission elements as part of DHS planning processes.
Sep 19, 2018
Report
Vitality Age V.3: Technical Report
This report describes the updated Vitality Age model, maintaining the core concept principles of the original model, yet expanding the number of input factors used in the analysis and building on a more comprehensive and consistent data source.
Jun 1, 2018
Journal Article
Understanding Scientists' Computational Modeling Decisions About Climate Risk Management Strategies Using Values-Informed Mental Models
This study used values-informed mental models (ViMM) to capture how a set of scientists thinks about modeling CRM strategy tradeoffs and how their values influence this thinking.
Mar 7, 2018

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RAND Topic:
Forecasting Methodology

Topic Synonyms:
Prediction

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Monika Cooper

Senior Technical Analyst

Monika Cooper (she/her) is a senior technical advisor at RAND Corporation in Arlington, VA, and previously served on the International Staff as a Communications, Command, Control, and Surveillance (C3S) life cycle expert for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, Belgium from…
Pedro Nascimento de Lima

Associate Engineer

Pedro Nascimento de Lima is an associate engineer at the RAND Corporation. His research leverages simulation modeling, high-performance computing, and Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty methods to inform health policy decision-analytic problems.

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