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Game Theory

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The study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent, rational decisionmakers, game theory is also known more descriptively as interactive decision theory. For more than seven decades, RAND researchers have used game theory to explore economics, political science, psychology, and conflict.

Commercial Book
A Primer on the Theory of Games of Strategy
This 1954 classic on basic concepts of game theory and its applications popularized the subject for amateurs, professionals, and students throughout the world.
Dec 1, 1954
Commentary
How Game Theory Could Solve the COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout Puzzle
The health systems behind the vaccine rollout are attempting to create order from chaos, sometimes with mixed results. Rather than relying on on-the-fly decisionmaking, state authorities should consider turning to game theory as a tool that could be the key to more efficient, faster vaccine distribution.
Mar 11, 2021

Explore Game Theory

Journal Article
Thinking Without Knowing: Psychological and Behavioral Consequences of Unjustified Confidence Regarding Blackjack Strategy
In two studies, we explored potential psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence, including outcome expectations, anxiety, risk taking, and information search and consideration.
May 18, 2023
Report
First Mover Typology for the Space Domain: Building a Foundation for Future Analysis
The authors offer a categorization and nuanced views of first moves in military strategy as a basis for understanding and further analysis of first mover advantage in the space domain.
Jan 25, 2023
Journal Article
Cyber Deterrence with Imperfect Attribution and Unverifiable Signaling
Examines a game of deterrence in which the defender can signal its retaliatory capability but can only imperfectly attribute an attack. We show that there are equilibria in which the defender sends noisy signals to increase its expected payoff.
Jul 25, 2022
Commentary
Is Putin Irrational? What Nuclear Strategic Theory Says About Deterrence of Potentially Irrational Opponents
Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Putin might double down and lash out.
Mar 8, 2022
Commentary
Developing a Winning Safety Strategy for Automated Vehicles
When policy problems involve many different groups with diverging interests along with significant uncertainty about the future, games can be a valuable way to explore the potential consequences of important policy decisions. What could gaming bring to the area of AV safety?
Feb 18, 2022
Blog
Insights on Afghanistan, Back to School, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the collapse in Afghanistan, what parents think about sending kids back to school, insights from game theory on North Korean denuclearization, and more.
Aug 20, 2021
Report
Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory
Applying game theory to the situation in North Korea may provide insights into how the United States can deal with Kim Jong-un and carry out negotiations on denuclearization.
Aug 12, 2021
Multimedia
Game Theory: A Tool for the Vaccine Campaign
RAND operations researcher Luke Muggy discusses ways in which game theory could support the COVID-19 vaccination campaign.
Jun 14, 2021
Report
On Balanced Games Without Side Payments: A Correction
The purpose of this paper is to repair Lemma 6.3 appearing in the author's previous paper of the same title (P-4910, September 1972).
May 1, 2021
Blog
Game Theory to Help the Vaccine Rollout, Abraham Accords, Telehealth: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how game theory can help the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, potential economic benefits of the Abraham Accords, telemedicine use during the pandemic, and more.
Mar 19, 2021
Report
How to Avoid Aggression or Escalation in a Crisis
Anticipating how an opponent may be reasoning, and then seeking ways to alter that thinking can inform an effective influence strategy. Deterring adversaries by threat of punishment alone is often ineffective. A better approach might involve a mix of several measures, such as being able to thwart aggression, reassurances to reduce the adversary's fears, and relationship-building.
Feb 16, 2021
Content
A Brief History of RAND
RAND was incorporated as a nonprofit corporation in 1948. From its early years to the present, RAND research is characterized by its objectivity and nonpartisanship, its quality and scientific rigor, and its dedication to improving policymaking on the most pressing issues of the day.
Aug 3, 2018
Commentary
Adding Shots on Target: Wargaming Beyond the Game
Figuring out what the future may look like—and what concepts and technology we should invest in now to prepare—is hard. How can the wargaming community build a cycle of research to help understand what these paths might be?
Oct 9, 2017
Multimedia
Gaming Solutions to Global Problems
In this Call with the Experts, David Shlapak, a senior international research analyst at RAND, talks about how serious games can help find solutions to global problems.
Jun 8, 2017
Report
Serious Analytical Gaming: The 360° Game for Multidimensional Analysis of Complex Problems
This report is intended to help decisionmakers who would like to design and run a 360° Game, which can be used in multidimensional analysis of complex problems and allows participants to investigate a problem from a variety of perspectives.
May 30, 2017
Multimedia
The Serious Role of Gaming at RAND
RAND uses gaming techniques to develop insights into a host of 21st century challenges. In this Events @ RAND podcast, David Shlapak, founding codirector of the RAND Center for Gaming, discusses the strengths, weaknesses, and limitations of using gaming in research.
Mar 23, 2017
Announcement
Thomas Schelling, Nobel Laureate and Longtime RAND Consultant, Dies at 95
Thomas Schelling, a Nobel Prize-winning economist and longtime RAND consultant whose ideas about conflict and cooperation helped guide American policymakers during the Cold War and beyond, has died.
Dec 14, 2016
Commentary
How Can Gaming Help Test Your Theory?
The act of designing a game will force you to articulate your theory or to be more specific about it. It will also require you to operationalize your variables and theoretical constructs of interest into a specific context, and prompt you to anticipate the ways in which it may play out in that scenario.
May 18, 2016
Announcement
Lloyd S. Shapley, Nobel Laureate in Economics, Dies at 92
Lloyd S. Shapley, a longtime RAND Corporation researcher and UCLA professor who was a leading expert in the study of strategic decisionmaking called “game theory,” sharing the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on the subject, died Saturday.
Mar 14, 2016

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Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Weilong Kong

Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND

Weilong (David) Kong is an assistant policy researcher at RAND and a Ph.D. candidate at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Prior to joining Pardee RAND, he was a senior public administrative analyst at the Luskin Center for Innovation at the University of California, Los Angeles, where he…
Krystyna Marcinek

Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School, and Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND

Krystyna Marcinek is an assistant policy researcher at RAND and a Ph.D. student at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Her research interests include international security, NATO, Russia, and the role of emerging technologies in the future of warfare.

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