Cristina L. Garafola

@CLGarafola on Twitter

Policy Researcher

Washington Office

Education

M.A. in international relations and international economics, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced and International Studies; Certificate in Chinese and American studies, Hopkins-Nanjing Center; B.A. in international relations and Chinese, Hamilton College

One Page Bio

Overview

Cristina Garafola (she/her) is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on the ramifications of China’s rise for its global status, particularly with respect to defense issues, China’s influence on regional actors, and implications for the United States. Garafola served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2017 to 2019, where she focused on National Defense Strategy and Indo-Pacific strategy implementation. She has also worked at the Department of the Treasury, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Department of State. She is the co-author of the book "70 Years of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force" (2021), published by the China Aerospace Studies Institute. Her work has been published by RAND, the China Maritime Studies Institute, and in Asian Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, War on the Rocks, and the Jamestown Foundation’s China Brief.

Garafola holds an M.A. in China studies from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), a graduate certificate from the Hopkins-Nanjing Center for Chinese and American Studies, and a B.A. in international relations and Chinese from Hamilton College. She has experience living and working in China and has also spent time in Myanmar (Burma) and Japan. She speaks Chinese.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Kenneth W. Allen and Cristina L. Garafola, 70 Years of the PLA Air Force, China Aerospace Studies Institute, 2021

Cristina L. Garafola, The PLA Airborne Corps in a Joint Island Landing Campaign, China Maritime Studies Institute, 2022

Michael S. Chase, Cristina L. Garafola, and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, "Chinese Perceptions of and Responses to U.S. Conventional Military Power," Asian Security, 2017

Cristina L. Garafola, "The Evolution of the PLA Air Force’s Mission, Roles and Requirements," in Joe McReynolds, ed., China’s Evolving Military Strategy, Jamestown Foundation, 2016

Michael S. Chase and Cristina L. Garafola, "China’s Search for a 'Strategic Air Force'," Journal of Strategic Studies, 2015

Commentary

China

People's Liberation Army Reforms and Their Ramifications
The newest round of reforms to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is expected to improve the military's efficiency, warfighting capability, and political loyalty, but entrenched interests within the PLA could lead to reluctance within the military to adjust to new realities.
Sep 23, 2016
Defense Dossier
China

How Do Chinese Surface-to-Air Missile Forces Train?
Surface-to-air missile (SAM) forces play a crucial role in Chinese military planning. Recent training activity indicates that PLAAF SAM units' operational readiness and capabilities may vary depending on their location and the time of year.
Sep 6, 2016
The National Interest
China

China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea
Since the PCA tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines' case on July 12, invalidating many of China's claims in the South China Sea, Beijing has sought to demonstrate its military strength in the region. The PLAAF's H-6K has played a key role.
Aug 2, 2016
War on the Rocks
Military Transformation

Will the PLA Reforms Succeed?
Reforms within the Chinese People's Liberation Army are in the process of delivering sweeping changes to its day-to-day operations, despite concerns held by some military members. Whether or not the overall implementation is successful as envisioned, assessing the operational implications of the reforms will require more time.
Apr 1, 2016
China Analysis, ECFR
International Diplomacy

Aung San Suu Kyi's Trip to China: Sino-Myanmar Relations as the Countdown to the November Elections Begins
For Aung San Suu Kyi and the rest of the National League for Democracy (NLD) delegation, meeting with Chinese leadership provided a forum for bilateral engagement with one of Myanmar's most important neighbors in the region, relations that will expand given the NLD's likely success at the polls in November.
Aug 10, 2015
China-US Focus

Publications

Research Brief
Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific
This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.
Jan 12, 2023
Report
China's Global Basing Ambitions: Defense Implications for the United States
The authors examine China's growing overseas interests, attributes of potential host nations, and potential power projection operations that the People's Liberation Army may carry out abroad. They also draw lessons from historical case studies.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
Implications of a Global People's Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China's Long-Term Global Basing Ambitions
The authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s while assessing U.S. risks and opportunities posed by Chinese military expansion.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations
Using a framework of 17 indicators, the authors assess and rank potential host nations for Chinese overseas basing and access. They recommend steps to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chinese responses and advises how the characteristics of activities may affect the risk of escalation.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.
Oct 25, 2022
Report
Bridging the Gap: Assessing U.S. Business Community Support for U.S.-China Competition
The authors assess how the U.S. business community viewed Trump administration policies designed to counter China's anticompetitive economic behaviors and how to improve support from the business community in U.S. competition with China.
May 16, 2022
Report
Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific
This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 30, 2022
Research Brief
A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China's Gray Zone Tactics
This brief presents a framework for understanding how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
Mar 30, 2022
Report
America's Strategy-Resource Mismatch: Addressing the Gaps Between U.S. National Strategy and Military Capacity
This report describes the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully.
May 7, 2019
Journal Article
Chinese Perceptions of and Responses to US Conventional Military Power
Chinese analysts view the U.S. military not only as a model for emulation but also as a serious threat, and thus China has developed capabilities designed to deter or counter U.S. military intervention.
2018
Report
The Chinese Air Force's First Steps Toward Becoming an Expeditionary Air Force
This is one of four reports based on RAND Project AIR FORCE Strategy and Doctrine Program research that assesses notable developments and implications of China's emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities.
Nov 10, 2017
Research Brief
Domestic Factors Could Accelerate the Evolution of China's Nuclear Posture
This brief discusses how domestic factors could influence China's evolving nuclear deterrent.
Apr 20, 2017
Report
China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States
This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.
Mar 15, 2017
Report
Training the People's Liberation Army Air Force Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) Forces
This report analyzes key trends and themes in China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) surface-to-air missile (SAM) unit training.
Aug 30, 2016
Journal Article
China's Search for a "Strategic Air Force"
China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone a transformation over the past two decades. As it continues to modernize, it is focused on becoming a strategic air force.
Aug 11, 2016
Report
War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable
A Sino-U.S. war could take various, and unintended, paths. Because intense, reciprocal conventional counterforce attacks could inflict heavy losses and costs on both sides, leaders need options and channels to contain and terminate fighting.
Jul 28, 2016
Journal Article
China Signals Resolve with Bomber Flights Over the South China Sea
An unprecedented display of Chinese strategic systems over disputed territories in the South China Sea reflects China's efforts to signal its resolve following a diplomatic defeat.
2016