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Geopolitical Strategic Competition

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Report
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
In response to China's expanding military activity in the Indo-Pacific, the United States has increased its activity in the region over the past decade. How can America continue to safeguard its interests while limiting potential risks of escalation with China?
Nov 30, 2022
Report
A New Era of Major-Power Competition
While there is a general consensus that the United States is now in a new era of strategic competition with China and Russia, there is not yet a clear understanding of what that means or what forms it could take. How can the United States best position itself to succeed?
Nov 30, 2022

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Report
Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways
This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation.
Jun 22, 2023
Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in Latin America
This report explores the potential for competition and conflict among the United States, China, and Russia in Latin America; where competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jun 20, 2023
Report
Scientific and Technological Flows Between the United States and China
Leaders from both the United States and China have recognized scientific and technological dominance as a national priority. But what are the potential benefits and risks of U.S.-Chinese scientific research collaboration?
Jun 15, 2023
Report
Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System
Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.
Jun 13, 2023
Testimony
Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States: Addendum
Document submitted June 5, 2023, as an addendum to testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.
Jun 12, 2023
Commentary
The Global Movement Against China's Economic Coercion Is Accelerating
There is much the West can do to push back against Chinese economic pressure, and many reasons to do so. Doing so is a core interest of the United States, which now places itself in competition with China over the shape of the international order.
Jun 9, 2023
Commentary
Countries Buy Defective Chinese Military Equipment. Why?
China's defense industry has exported malfunctioning and defective military equipment in recent years—leaving countries short of what's needed for their security while also draining military budgets. So why do countries continue to order military equipment from China?
Jun 8, 2023
Journal Article
Invisible Blockades and Strategic Coercion
The use of naval mines goes back more than two centuries, but the use of these weapons by both Russia and Ukraine has renewed discussion about the value of this technology for modern warfare.
Jun 7, 2023
Journal Article
An Unwinnable War: Washington Needs an Endgame in Ukraine
While the Western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was clear from the start, the objective has been nebulous. After over a year of fighting, the likely direction of this war is coming into focus.
Jun 6, 2023
Commentary
U.S.-China Rivalry in an Era of Weakening States
With their weakened state capacity, disengaged publics, and imbalanced economies, the United States and China break the pattern seen in other rivalries between great powers. New theories and ideas will be required to cope with problems largely unknown to the great-power rivals of the recent past.
Jun 6, 2023
Report
Great-Power Competition and Conflict in the Middle East
This report explores the potential for competition among the United States, China, and Russia in the Middle East; where and why competition might turn into conflict; what form that conflict might take; and the implications for the United States.
Jun 1, 2023
Report
Climate Change Dilemmas for UK Defence and Security: Exploring implications, challenges, opportunities and threats through future scenarios
We explored the implications of climate-change on the UK Ministry of Defence's ability to deliver its priority outcomes. We developed narrative vignettes to facilitate analysis of climate change dilemmas and implications in a participatory event.
May 31, 2023
Commercial Book
Age of Danger: Keeping America Safe in an Era of New Superpowers, New Weapons, and New Threats
An urgent look at how America's national security machine went astray and how it fails to keep us safe — and what we can do to fix it.
May 24, 2023
Commentary
Beyond the 'Mine Shaft Gap': Navigating Threat Perceptions in the Sino-American Rivalry
In “Dr. Strangelove,” the “mine shaft gap” was an astute satirical concept that reflected the mindset that any perceived disadvantage between the United States and the Soviet Union posed an existential threat. Though fictional, this kind of calculation is not unheard of in real-life, modern-day thinking. Shrewd discernment could help avoid it as the United States pursues its national security objectives.
May 24, 2023
Journal Article
Strategic Competition in the Arctic
The Arctic's strategic significance has been largely overlooked since the closing days of the Cold War. In this article, we begin by briefly characterising the Arctic and its military significance, followed by a brief review of its military history.
May 23, 2023
Blog
Extremism, Medicaid, Florida's 'Don't Say Gay' Law: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on addressing domestic extremism, managing reductions in Medicaid enrollment, the effects of Florida's “Don't Say Gay” law, and more.
May 19, 2023
Research Brief
What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made a constructive U.S.-Russia relationship implausible for the foreseeable future. But once the fighting stops, the United States will continue to face long-term incentives to improve the stability and predictability of its relations with Moscow.
May 17, 2023
Report
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
May 17, 2023
Testimony
Chinese Strategy in the Pacific and Implications for the United States
In recent years, Chinese attention has increasingly included Oceania. What has Chinese strategy been in the Freely Associated States and U.S. territories in the Pacific? What are some policy recommendations for Congress and the U.S. government to consider going forward?
May 16, 2023
Commentary
Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough
The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.
May 12, 2023

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RAND Topic:
Geopolitical Strategic Competition

Topic Synonyms:
Great Power Competition

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Amanda Kerrigan

Policy Researcher

Amanda Kerrigan is a policy researcher at the RAND corporation. She was previously a research scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division at CNA. Her research at CNA focused on the development of the artificial intelligence sector in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and…
Khrystyna Holynska

Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND, and Ph.D. Student, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Khrystyna Holynska is a Ph.D. student in the Research, Analysis, and Design stream at the Pardee RAND Graduate School and an assistant policy researcher at RAND. Her research interests include foreign, defense, security policy, Ukraine, Russia, and Eastern Europe.

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