Timothy R. Gulden

Senior Policy Researcher

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in public policy, University of Maryland; B.A. in liberal arts, Sarah Lawrence College

One Page Bio

Overview

Tim Gulden is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. His research focuses on modeling complex systems in the context of data as well as more general policy analysis including cost/benefit analysis, spatial analysis, organizational design, and emerging methods in artificial intelligence.

Gulden is the past president of the Computational Social Science Society of the Americas (CSSSA). Before coming to RAND, he was a research professor with the Center for Social Complexity and Department of Computational Social Science at George Mason University. His PhD is from the University of Maryland School of Public Policy where he explored agent-based modeling as a tool for policy analysis. He has held research positions at the MITRE Corporation, the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM), and the Brookings Institution's Center on Social and Economic Dynamics (CSED). He attended the Santa Fe Institute's Complex Systems Summer School in 2002. During the 1990s he was the technical director of the GIS program for Westchester County, New York.

Research Focus

Commentary

Vaccination

Target Vaccine to 'High-Contact' People
Actively seeking out people with lots of contacts for vaccination could bring the epidemic under control much more quickly than vaccinating people at random. Vaccinating just 15% of the population would be enough to crush the epidemic—so long as it was the right 15%.
Apr 9, 2021
The Detroit News
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Water Resources Management

Los Angeles River Revitalization: Taking Inspiration from Near and Far
Currently a predominantly concrete channel running through the city, the Los Angeles River has great potential to revitalize Los Angeles's water resources, landscape, and identity. Creating a new vision for the river presents a complex challenge for policymakers, engineers, and urban planners.
Feb 4, 2020
The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
The Metaverse and Homeland Security: Opportunities and Risks of Persistent Virtual Environments
This Perspective provides an initial review of the metaverse concept and its relevance to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The authors map department objectives to key metaverse characteristics and identify areas for proactive efforts.
May 22, 2023
Tool
Climate Adaptation Strategies for National Critical Functions
This tool presents climate adaptation strategies for a set of National Critical Functions (NCFs) that are capable of mitigating the risks posed by climate change.
Jul 28, 2022
Report
Assessing Risk to the National Critical Functions as a Result of Climate Change
Researchers developed a framework to assess and manage the risk that climate change poses to National Critical Functions, then used the framework to assess the most-vulnerable ones. This report details the risk assessment portions of the framework.
Apr 5, 2022
Draft
Addressing Emerging Technology Adoption in Food Production through Digital Games
Examines how blockchain, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence with machine learning, and satellite imaging are being or could be implemented to decrease uncertainty and mitigate risks to support agricultural production and distribution.
Dec 29, 2021
Journal Article
Modelling the Impact of Social Distancing and Targeted Vaccination on the Spread of COVID-19 Through a Real City-Scale Contact Network
We use mobile device data to construct empirical interpersonal physical contact networks in the city of Portland, Oregon, both before and after social distancing measures were enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dec 15, 2021
Report
Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume II, Technical Details for a Complex Adaptive Systems Lens
This is a technical report that supports a companion report, Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges.
Aug 26, 2021
Report
Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I, An Initial Exploration of How Complex Adaptive Systems Thinking Can Frame Opportunities and Challenges
This report is the first in a two-part series that examines how complex adaptive systems thinking can be applied to great-power competition and warfare to aid in understanding how complexity might be exploited to U.S. advantage.
Aug 26, 2021
Report
From Hermit Kingdom to Open for Business: Developing a Blueprint for North Korea's Economic Development
The authors describe a blueprint for economic development in North Korea using foreign investment as an organizational framework.
May 25, 2021
Report
Protecting the Most Vulnerable by Vaccinating the Most Active
In this Perspective, the authors used a network model to illustrate five different vaccination strategies for coronavirus disease 2019, showing that vaccinating the most-active people might be the best way to protect the vulnerable in the pandemic.
Feb 15, 2021
Report
Modeling Rapidly Composable, Heterogeneous, and Fractionated Forces: Findings on Mosaic Warfare from an Agent-Based Model
Mosaic warfare is named for the idea of creating a complex image from small pieces. This report studies Mosaic warfare and explores complexity of platforms, complexity of targets, and relative density of platforms and targets.
Jan 5, 2021
Report
Main Command Post-Operational Detachments (MCP-ODs) and Division Headquarters Readiness
Researchers identify the effects of Focus Area Review Group II headquarters design and its new unit type -- the Main Command Post--Operational Detachment -- on division headquarters readiness.
Jun 3, 2019
Report
Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling
Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.
Apr 16, 2018
Research Brief
What's the Buzz? The Drones Are Here
This brief examines the developing technology for using drones to deliver packages and attempts to identify the societal impacts, including potential effects on aerial congestion, noise, privacy, and other outcomes.
Mar 5, 2018
Report
The Energy Implications of Drones for Package Delivery: A Geographic Information System Comparison
In this report, we use a geographic information system analysis to compare truck versus delivery drone energy use.
Sep 28, 2017
Report
Cost–Benefit Analysis of Proposed California Oil and Gas Refinery Regulations
New safety standards for oil and gas refineries in California might reduce refinery incidents, providing benefits to the public and savings to California consumers. To be worth the cost, the rules would have to produce modest improvements in safety.
Mar 16, 2016
Report
Resources and Capabilities of the Department of Veterans Affairs to Provide Timely and Accessible Care to Veterans
The Department of Veterans Affairs health care system, with broad resources and capabilities, provides timely and high-quality care to most, but not all, patients. Meeting veterans' needs over the next five years will require additional capacity.
Dec 31, 2015