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Intelligence Analysis

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Intelligence analysis is the process by which the information collected about an enemy is used to answer tactical questions about current operations or to predict future behavior. RAND has helped the U.S. intelligence community streamline its processes and aided military analysts collecting and processing information on the battlefield.

Commentary
The Intelligence Community's Deadly Bias Toward Classified Sources
Even when relevant data is publicly available, U.S. intelligence analysts are not including it in their analytic products during their routine course of business. This willful ignorance of publicly available information is hurting U.S. national security.
Apr 12, 2021
Report
The Role of Information in U.S. Concepts for Strategic Competition
Gray zone activities—acts of aggression that remain below the threshold of war—can be used to gain an edge in great-power competition. How can the information environment support U.S. responses to these activities?
Oct 25, 2022

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Report
Options for Strengthening All-Source Intelligence: Substantive Change Is Within Reach
Foreign attacks against the United States occur frequently. The authors propose game-changing ideas to enable intelligence analysts to address long-standing challenges related to the use of open sources, analytic tradecraft, and politicization.
Feb 28, 2022
Research Brief
Assessing China's Defense Industrial Base
What are the systemic strengths and vulnerabilities of China's defense industrial base? A comparative systems analysis looks at six key categories: economics; governance and regulations; raw materials; manufacturing; workforce, labor, and skills; and research, development, and innovation.
Feb 11, 2022
Report
Assessing Systemic Strengths and Vulnerabilities of China's Defense Industrial Base: With a Repeatable Methodology for Other Countries
The authors assess the strengths and vulnerabilities of China's defense industrial base (DIB) by designing and applying a comparative analytic structure that could be used to assess any country's DIB.
Feb 11, 2022
Report
Artificial Intelligence Systems in Intelligence Analysis
The U.S. military and intelligence community have shown interest in using artificial intelligence systems to support intelligence analysis. But deploying AI systems in a national security context requires the ability to measure how well they will perform in the context of their mission.
Aug 26, 2021
Report
Documenting Intelligence Mission-Data Production Requirements: How the U.S. Department of Defense Can Improve Efficiency and Effectiveness by Streamlining the Production Requirement Process
The authors examine issues relating to the identification of requirements for Intelligence Mission Data and intelligence production for the Acquisition Intelligence Requirements Task Force.
Aug 3, 2021
Report
China's Drive for Power and Influence Around the World
An analysis of China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries finds that China's economic power is the foundation for its influence. This analysis offers lessons for the United States that can inform its response.
Jun 30, 2021
Commentary
An Early Policy Victory for DNI Haines: Boost the Priority of Open Sources Information
The quantity, quality, and accessibility of publicly available information has exploded over the past decades. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines has an opportunity to advance intelligence community mission activities on several key issues shaped by the digital information age, including the role of publicly available information.
Mar 4, 2021
Report
Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Technical Analysis
What are the near-term fixes to existing intelligence challenges? And where could artificial intelligence and machine learning be integrated in the future? An in-depth analysis explores technologies that could help the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System become more effective, efficient, and agile.
Jan 27, 2021
Report
Technology Innovation and the Future of Air Force Intelligence Analysis: Findings and Recommendations
Getting the right intelligence to the right people at the right time is increasingly difficult as the amount of data grows and timelines shrink. How can tools and technologies help the Air Force Distributed Common Ground System evolve to meet the challenges of synthesizing data effectively and efficiently?
Jan 27, 2021
Journal Article
Applying Indications and Warning Frameworks to Cyber Incidents
This research proposes a high-level yet practical strategic cyber indications and warning approach that governments, NATO agencies, and the private sector can apply to defend against cyber threats.
Apr 28, 2020
Q&A
Intel, Ethics, and Emerging Tech: Q&A with Cortney Weinbaum
Cortney Weinbaum studies topics related to intelligence and cyber policy as a senior management scientist at RAND. In this interview, she discusses challenges facing the intelligence community, the risks of using AI as a solution, and ethics in scientific research.
Aug 23, 2019
Journal Article
Adaptation by Intelligent Adversaries to Defensive Measures: Framing Adaptation Options and Demonstrating Assessment of Attacker Preferences Using Proxy Intelligence Data
Addressing adaptation by adversaries and its implications for security planning requires understanding the ways attackers can respond to new defensive measures. This paper demonstrates an analysis of such preferences using open source data.
Oct 2, 2018
Journal Article
Intelligence in a Data-Driven Age
The Intelligence Community is nearing critical decisions on artificial intelligence and machine learning.
Jul 13, 2018
Report
Defining Second Generation Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) for the Defense Enterprise
This report describes the evolution of open source intelligence, defines open source information and the intelligence cycle, and parallels with other intelligence disciplines, along with methods used and challenges of using off-the-shelf technology.
May 17, 2018
Report
Assessing Competencies and Proficiency of Army Intelligence Analysts Across the Career Life Cycle
This report describes the development and implementation of a process to assess key analytic competencies and proficiency of the U.S. Army's analysts in the 35F military occupational specialty and the design of a protocol for ongoing evaluation.
Jul 27, 2017
Report
The Future of Sectarian Relations in the Middle East
Sectarianism is shaping developments across the Middle East. But sectarianism is only one lens for understanding the region's conflicts, and some of its drivers are amenable to policy interventions.
May 22, 2017
Commentary
Three Ways to Improve Australia's Intelligence Capability
Intelligence agencies should become centers of expertise, focus on what matters for their customers, and coordinate a network of partners. To better deliver on these three priorities, the Australian Intelligence Community should consider a leadership structure with authority to guide and coordinate these processes.
Apr 4, 2017
Report
Assessing the Value of Structured Analytic Techniques in the U.S. Intelligence Community
This report argues for more systematic assessment of the structured analytic techniques employed by the Intelligence Community and provides a pilot study illustrating how they could be evaluated.
Jan 9, 2017

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RAND Topic:
Intelligence Analysis

Topic Synonyms:
Analytic Tradecraft

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Mark Cozad

Senior International Defense Researcher

Mark Cozad is a senior international defense researcher at RAND, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Cozad's work at RAND focuses primarily on military and security issues in Europe and East Asia including major power competition, the development of operational concepts among…
Raphael S. Cohen

Director, Strategy and Doctrine Program, RAND Project AIR FORCE

Raphael "Rafi" Cohen is the director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He works on a broad range of defense and foreign policy issues, including defense strategy and force planning, Middle East and European…

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