William Marcellino

Senior Behavioral and Social Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D., Carnegie Mellon University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Bill Marcellino is a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation, professor of text analytics at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, and lecturer at Carnegie Mellon University and Johns Hopkins University. He was trained as a sociolinguist and corpus linguist, and at RAND he develops analytic toolsets, including RAND-Lex, RAND's proprietary text analytics suite. Marcellino teaches text analytics methods for big datasets (e.g. social media), as well as qualitative research methods. His research focuses on information as a warfighting function, intelligence, military resilience, counter-violent extremism/terrorism, and social media as a data source. He has also served as a U.S. Marine tank officer and enlisted rifleman. Marcellino received his Ph.D. in rhetoric from Carnegie Mellon University.

Research Focus

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Analyzing Text with Computers

Recent Projects

Sex Offender Behaviors and Risk Factors
Defending Against and Mitigating the Effects of Disinformation
Army Contract Analytics Capability Development
RAND Corporation Conspiracy Theories Research
Marine Intercept Program

Selected Publications

William M. Marcellino, Kim Cragin, Joshua Mendelsohn, Andrew Cady, Madeline Magnuson, and Kathleen Reedy, "Measuring the Popular Resonance of Daesh’s Propaganda," Journal of Strategic Security, 10(1), 2017

Marcellino, William, Kate Cox, Katerina Galai, Linda Slapakova, Amber Jaycocks, and Ruth Harris, Human-machine detection of online-based malign information, RAND Corporation (RR-A519-1), 2020

William M. Marcellino, "Talk like a Marine: USMC linguistic acculturation and civil-military argument," Discourse Studies, 16(3), 2014

William M. Marcellino, "Revisioning Strategic Communication Through Rhetoric & Discourse Analysis," Joint Forces Quarterly, (76), 2016

Christopher Paul & William M. Marcellino, Dominating Duffer’s Domain: Lessons for the 21st Century Information Operations Practitioner, RAND Corporation (RR-1166), 2017

Kavanagh, Jennifer, William Marcellino, Jonathan S. Blake, Shawn Smith, Steven Davenport, and Mahlet Gizaw, News in a Digital Age: Comparing the Presentation of News Information over Time and Across Media Platforms, RAND Corporation (RR-2960), 2019

Johnson, Christian, William Marcellino, Bag-of-Words Algorithms Can Supplement Transformer Sequence Classification & Improve Model Interpretability, RAND Corporation (WR-A1719-1), 2022

Marcellino, William, Meagan L. Smith, Christopher Paul, and Lauren Skrabala, Monitoring Social Media: Lessons for Future Department of Defense Social Media Analysis in Support of Information Operations, RAND Corporation (RR-1742), 2017

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: BTRtoday; The World and Everything in It

Commentary

Machine Learning

AI, ChatGPT, and Language as Technology: Q&A with William Marcellino
William Marcellino, a senior behavioral and social scientist at RAND and professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, discusses the rapidly expanding reach of artificial intelligence, the challenges it could pose for both society and policymakers, and how the research community is poised to help.
May 12, 2023
Military Strategy

The Will to Fight in the Age of Social Media
Social media messaging has played a decisive role in strengthening Ukraine's will to fight—arguably the single most important factor in war—against Russia.
Mar 22, 2022
Stars and Stripes
Machine Learning

Reining in COVID-19 Disinformation from China, Russia, and Elsewhere
During the pandemic, misinformation and conspiracy theories have spread more virulently than ever before. The vast scale of the problem means scalable solutions like machine learning could be needed to rein in the bots, trolls, and conspiracy theories being spread by bad-faith actors.
Nov 19, 2021
The RAND Blog
Military Doctrine

The Link Between Extremism and Military Functioning
U.S. Department of Defense policy prohibits service members from actively participating in extremist activities. Broadening the policy to include passive forms of participation could introduce two challenges.
May 20, 2021
Military Times
Media Literacy

A Machine Learning Approach Could Help Counter Disinformation
Disinformation has become a central feature of the COVID-19 crisis. This type of malign information and high-tech “deepfake” imagery poses a risk to democratic societies worldwide by increasing public mistrust in governments and public authorities. New research highlights new ways to detect and dispel disinformation online.
Jun 25, 2020
C4ISRNET
Emerging Technologies

'Star Trek' at 50: How the TV Series Inspired a Boy to Become a Scientist
William Marcellino discusses how “Star Trek” convinced him at an early age that science and the advancement of human knowledge could make the world a better place.
Aug 26, 2016
Los Angeles Times

Publications

Report
The U.S. Air Force Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Values on Social Media: A Proof-of-Concept Examination of How Air Force–Affiliated Accounts Represent the Service Online
This report presents a proof-of-concept to assess the online behavior of U.S. Air Force (USAF)-affiliated users over social media, specifically in regard to USAF diversity, equity, and inclusion policies.
Feb 22, 2023
Report
A House Reunited: Prospects for Bipartisanship in a Divided Country
Based on workshop discussions, this Perspective presents some proposed solutions, and potential data sources to evaluate these solutions, to problems related to mis- and disinformation, election security, extremism, and immigration reform.
Jan 19, 2023
Research Brief
A Dangerous Web: Mapping Racially and Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism
The authors reviewed literature on racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE), analyzed social media data from six platforms, and created a global network map to better understand how to inform counter-REMVE strategies online.
Aug 22, 2022
Report
Mapping White Identity Terrorism and Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremism: A Social Network Analysis of Online Activity
The authors reviewed literature on racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE), analyzed social media data from six platforms, and created a global network map to better understand how to inform counter-REMVE strategies online.
Jun 7, 2022
Draft
Bag-of-Words Algorithms Can Supplement Transformer Sequence Classification & Improve Model Interpretability
Describes a simple method of improving performance on the problem of classifying sequences of text by concatenating the hidden state of a BERT-based transformer model with a dictionary-based bag-of-words model.
Jan 13, 2022
Journal Article
Conspiracy Theories Have Much in Common. Their Differences May Hold the Key to Identifying When They Turn Violent.
RAND/Google collaboration to improve machine learning models to detect and understand the rhetorical functions of conspiracy theories over social media.
Dec 22, 2021
Tool
Command Narrative Smart Guide
This quick reference provides the big-picture basics for successful command narrative development and deployment.
Nov 15, 2021
Report
Developing, Disseminating, and Assessing Command Narrative: Anchoring Command Efforts on a Coherent Story
Drawing on the scientific literature and lessons learned from the joint force, the authors of this report describe best practices for the effective use of command narrative.
Nov 15, 2021
Report
Bad Actors in News Reporting: Tracking News Manipulation by State Actors
Researchers found that both Russia and China appear to have manipulated information during the pandemic in service to their respective global agendas. This second report in a series describes these efforts and the workflows used to uncover them.
Nov 15, 2021
Report
Natural Language Processing: Security- and Defense-Related Lessons Learned
This reference document presents a collection of lessons learned by practitioners from RAND Corporation defense and security projects that employed natural language processing tools and methods.
Jul 28, 2021
Report
Rapid Analysis of Foreign Malign Information on COVID-19 in the Indo-Pacific: A Proof-of-Concept Study
The authors explore whether news and blog data could provide some initial insights on the reach of, content of, and tactical strategies used in foreign malign information about COVID-19 in the Indo-Pacific.
Jul 7, 2021
Report
Insights from the Bin Laden Archive: Inventory of research and knowledge and initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive
The authors present an inventory of current knowledge on Al Qa'ida and of completed and ongoing research on the Bin Laden Archive. They also describe their initial assessment and characterisation of the Bin Laden Archive.
May 5, 2021
Report
Detecting Conspiracy Theories on Social Media: Improving Machine Learning to Detect and Understand Online Conspiracy Theories
Using linguistic and rhetorical theory, researchers developed an improved model of machine-learning technology to detect conspiracy theory language. This report describes the results and suggests ways to counter effects of online conspiracy theories.
Apr 29, 2021
Report
Army Analytic Capabilities: A Case Study Within Army Contracting Command and Its Implications
The U.S. Army lacks access to modern, commonplace analytical data management tools, and its data are locked away in siloed and proprietary databases. To solve these two challenges, the authors found an effective, efficient, and quick path forward.
Apr 12, 2021
Draft
Resonance Analysis: A Methodology for Detecting Author Affiliations through Distinctive Patterns of Word Choice
Describe resonance analysis, an evolving text mining method for estimating how much affinity exists in a broader population for a specific group, and provides detailed guidance for using it effectively.
Mar 5, 2021
Report
Counter-Radicalization Bot Research: Using Social Bots to Fight Violent Extremism
As the online recruitment of violent extremist organizations grows, the U.S. government may benefit from promising emerging technology tools to rapidly detect targets of such recruitment efforts and deliver counter-radicalization content to them.
Oct 8, 2020
Report
Foreign Interference in the 2020 Election: Tools for Detecting Online Election Interference
This report, the second in a series on information efforts by foreign actors, describes what appears to be an instance of election interference on Twitter and offers recommendations for response.
Oct 8, 2020
Report
Human-machine detection of online-based malign information
RAND Europe developed a method to detect the malign use of information online for the UK Ministry of Defence's Defence and Security Accelerator.
Jun 23, 2020
Report
Detecting Malign or Subversive Information Efforts over Social Media: Scalable Analytics for Early Warning
The authors examine scalable analytic means to detect malign or subversive information efforts. The report has operational relevance to the U.S. government and may also benefit other researchers and social media companies dealing with malign actors.
Mar 16, 2020
Research Brief
Will to Fight: Returning to the Human Fundamentals of War
This brief argues for the importance of improving our understanding of what influences will to fight, and it describes two models for doing so: one for analyzing a military unit's will to fight, and one for analyzing a nation's will to fight.
Sep 13, 2019
Research Brief
Facts Versus Opinions: How the Style and Language of News Presentation Is Changing in the Digital Age
This brief describes results of a study focused on changes in news presentation over time and across platforms, finding a general shift from objective event-based reporting to reporting that relies more heavily on argumentation and advocacy.
May 14, 2019
Report
News in a Digital Age: Comparing the Presentation of News Information over Time and Across Media Platforms
This report presents a quantitative assessment of how news presentation has changed over time and how it varies across platforms from more-objective event- and context-based reporting to more-subjective reporting that includes more emotional appeals.
May 14, 2019
Research Brief
Evaluating Los Angeles County's Mental Health Community Engagement Campaign
In order to evaluate how well a Los Angeles County mental health campaign met its goals, RAND conducted an in-person survey of event attendees, a social media analysis, and a web-based survey of a broader population of Los Angeles youth.
Nov 14, 2018
Report
Evaluation of Los Angeles County's Mental Health Community Engagement Campaign
To evaluate how well a Los Angeles County mental health campaign met its goals, RAND conducted an in-person survey of event attendees, a social media analysis, and a web-based survey of a broader population of Los Angeles youth.
Nov 14, 2018
Journal Article
Social Media in Africa: A Double-Edged Sword for Security and Development: Research Brief
The United Nations Development Programme commissioned RAND Europe to explore social media use and its links to online radicalisation in Africa. The study analysed the social media use of three Islamist terrorist groups across seven countries.
Nov 5, 2018
Journal Article
Social Media in Africa: A Double-Edged Sword for Security and Development
The United Nations Development Programme commissioned RAND Europe to explore social media use and its links to online radicalisation in Africa. The study analysed the social media use of three Islamist terrorist groups across seven countries.
Nov 5, 2018
Journal Article
Social Media in Africa: A Double-Edged Sword for Security and Development
The United Nations Development Programme commissioned RAND Europe to explore social media use and its links to online radicalisation in Africa. The study analysed the social media use of three Islamist terrorist groups across seven countries.
Nov 5, 2018
Journal Article
Social Media in Africa: A Double-Edged Sword for Security and Development: Technical Annex
An annex of supporting information for the report, containing thematic content in relation to the countries examined and the three case study terrorist groups analysed, alongside content relating to the Twitter data analysis and interviews conducted.
Nov 5, 2018
Report
Will to Fight: Analyzing, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Military Units
This report defines and describes will to fight and provides a model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale. It also provides a theoretical basis for adding will to fight to military war gaming.
Sep 20, 2018
Report
Russian Social Media Influence: Understanding Russian Propaganda in Eastern Europe
Researchers analyzed Russian social media data and conducted interviews with regional and security experts to understand the critical ingredients to countering Russia's propaganda campaign against former Soviet states.
Apr 12, 2018
Report
Air Force Sexual Assault Situations, Settings, and Offender Behaviors
To assist Air Force efforts to prevent and respond to sexual assault, this report focuses on providing a better understanding of sexual assaults committed by airmen, including suspect characteristics and behaviors and risky situations and settings.
Apr 10, 2018
Report
Monitoring Social Media: Lessons for Future Department of Defense Social Media Analysis in Support of Information Operations
To support the U.S. Department of Defense in expanding its capacity for social media analysis, this report reviews the analytic approaches that will be most valuable for information operations and considerations for implementation.
Jun 14, 2017
Report
Dominating Duffer's Domain: Lessons for the U.S. Marine Corps Information Operations Practitioner
To support the U.S. Marine Corps and its curriculum for information operations personnel, RAND has adapted the premise of the military classic The Defence of Duffer's Drift for a modern-day audience of Marine Corps officers.
Apr 20, 2017
Report
Dominating Duffer's Domain: Lessons for the U.S. Army Information Operations Practitioner
Adapting the format of military classic, The Defence of Duffer's Drift, this report analyzes alternative courses of action in the same hypothetical mission in order to derive lessons about integrating information operations into operational planning.
Apr 20, 2017
Journal Article
Detecting Changes in Newspaper Reporting of Suicide After a Statewide Social Marketing Campaign
In conclusion and similar to many past evaluations, we find no evidence that the KTS campaign was effective in changing the way in which suicides are reported on in California had any effect.
Apr 4, 2017
Report
Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces
This report assesses challenges for unit cohesion from integrating women into special operations forces and provides analytical support for validating occupational standards for positions controlled by U.S. Special Operations Command.
Dec 16, 2015
Report
Hazing in the U.S. Armed Forces: Recommendations for Hazing Prevention Policy and Practice
This report addresses ways to improve the armed forces' definition of hazing, the effects of and motivations for hazing, how the armed forces can prevent and respond to hazing, and how the armed forces can improve the tracking of hazing incidents.
Aug 11, 2015
Journal Article
Revisioning Strategic Communication Through Rhetoric and Discourse Analysis
Strategic communication can be made more conceptually robust and draw on a more powerful and useful suite of tools and methods by borrowing from two language-focused disciplines: rhetoric and discourse analysis.
Feb 18, 2015
Journal Article
Talk Like a Marine: USMC Linguistic Acculturation and Civil–military Argument
This study examines the relationship between US Marine discourse and civil–military public argument.
2014
Journal Article
"I Don't Think I Would Have Recovered": A Personal and Sociocultural Study of Resilience Among U. S. Marines
USMC resilience training should focus on skills and concepts needed to resolve challenges to values in the lives of Marines. Technical-medical interventions should be reserved for clinical populations.
2014