Andrew R. Morral

@AndrewMorral on Twitter

Senior Behavioral Scientist, Director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in psychology, New School for Social Research

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Andrew R. Morral is a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation, leader of Gun Policy in America, a RAND initiative to understand the effects of gun policies, and director of the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research, a philanthropy that has awarded more than $21m in research funding to non-RAND researchers. His expertise includes program evaluation, modeling and simulation, survey research, and performance measurement. He has developed innovative techniques for examining drug use epidemiology and survey response accuracy, and causal modeling software that is now widely used. In addition to his gun policy work, his recent research includes studies examining the prevalence and characteristics of sexual assaults of members of the U.S. military. Morral has published dozens of peer-reviewed reports, and has served as a science advisor to the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, to the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events, and to the DHS Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards program. He holds a Ph.D. in psychology from New School for Social Research.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Gun Policy in America: A RAND Initiative
The National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research
Sexual assault and harassment in the U.S. Armed Forces
Evaluation of Baltimore's Aerial Investigations Pilot
Using small-area estimates of firearm ownership to investigate violence disparities and firearm policy effects

Selected Publications

Andrew Morral and Rosanna Smart, "Better data, less gun violence," Science, 377, 2022

Andrew Morral and Rosanna Smart, "A new era for firearm violence prevention research.," Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), 328(12), 2022

Schell, Cefalu, Griffin, Smart and Morral, "Changes in firearm mortality following the implementation of state laws regulating firearm access and use," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, 2020

Smart, Rosanna, Andrew R. Morral, Sierra Smucker, Samantha Cherney, Terry L. Schell, Samuel Peterson, Sangeeta C. Ahluwalia, Matthew Cefalu, Lea Xenakis, Rajeev Ramchand, and Carole Roan Gresenz, The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Second Edition, RAND Corporation (RR-2088-1), 2020

Schell, Terry L., Samuel Peterson, Brian G. Vegetabile, Adam Scherling, Rosanna Smart, and Andrew R. Morral, State-Level Estimates of Household Firearm Ownership, RAND Corporation (TL-354), 2020

Morral, Andrew R., Terry L. Schell, Sexual Assault of Sexual Minorities in the U.S. Military, RAND Corporation (RR-A1390-1), 2021

Schell, Terry L., Beth Ann Griffin, and Andrew R. Morral, Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Effect of State Laws on Firearm Deaths: A Simulation Study, RAND Corporation (RR-2685), 2018

National Defense Research Institute,, Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Top-Line Estimates for Active-Duty Service Members from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, RAND Corporation (RR-870), 2014

Honors & Awards

2015 President's Award, Michael Rich, President and CEO of RAND
2018 Leonard Schaefer Award, Michael Rich, President and CEO of RAND

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Christian Science Monitor Daily; JAMA Network; KQED-FM; Modern Healthcare Online; New Scientist; PBS NewsHour Online; Texas Public Radio; WICD-TV

Commentary

Gun Policy

Addressing Gun Violence Requires Better Means of Measuring It
Proposals to reduce firearm violence in the United States are often controversial, sometimes because there are no data demonstrating their effectiveness. The federal government has many of the requisite tools in place to collect the data, and it does it well on a wide range of other problems. Shying away from measuring this problem may also make it more difficult to fix it.
Feb 13, 2023
CNN
Gun Policy

Responding to the Firearm Violence Crisis: Are Some Newly Enacted Laws Making Things Worse?
Persuasive scientific evidence is accumulating for several commonly implemented laws. Where the science is strong, lawmakers would be wise to consider it when making decisions about how to protect public safety while preserving civil liberties, including the right to bear arms.
Jan 25, 2023
USA Today
Gun Violence

Historic Research Conference Combats the Rise in Gun Violence
With new funding for gun violence prevention research, projects are beginning to produce findings. To capitalize on the new findings and help integrate the growing field of researchers working on gun violence prevention, RAND partnered with other research programs to organize the 2022 National Research Conference on Firearm Injury Prevention.
Dec 9, 2022
The RAND Blog
Gun Violence

Better Data, Less Gun Violence
If the United States is serious about fixing the escalating problem of gun violence, the government needs to measure it. Research that is supported by new funding is overdue but will be hampered until federal and state firearm violence data systems improve.
Oct 5, 2022
Science
Gun Policy

A New Era for Firearm Violence Prevention Research
Despite many remaining obstacles, the United States may soon have research that clarifies many of the unanswered questions about firearm violence and its prevention. Many critical research questions, neglected for decades, may now benefit from recent federal and private research funding that has supported a surge in research.
Oct 4, 2022
Journal of the American Medical Association
Gun Policy

Facts Still Matter, Even If the Court Signals Otherwise
The Supreme Court's recent decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen threatens to render decades of scientific studies legally irrelevant. But there is still room for research to inform court decisions about firearm regulations.
Oct 4, 2022
Newsweek
Gun Policy

State Gun Regulations Are a Messy Patchwork. The Supreme Court's Bruen Decision Won't Help
The Supreme Court's decision may not actually narrow the policy gap between states sharply divided over their approach to regulating guns. Rather, its result may not look very different than what we have today—a patchwork of laws that often reflect political and policy demands of individual states.
Aug 22, 2022
The Hill
Gun Policy

The Gun Laws That Work, and the Gun Laws That Don't
Are certain gun laws and regulations likely to improve or worsen public safety? At a time when many Americans are searching for solutions to the country's intolerably high rates of gun violence, social scientists can help provide answers.
May 27, 2022
The Washington Post
Sexual Assault

Military Must Better Understand Sexual Assaults to Combat Them
Sexual minorities in the U.S. military represent about 12 percent of the active-duty population. But they account for an estimated 43 percent of those who are sexually assaulted. This raises critical questions for the Pentagon as it tries to reduce the 20,000 sexual assaults in the ranks each year.
Jun 22, 2021
The Hill
Gun Policy

COVID-19 Reveals Need for More Research About Guns
Recent reports suggest that Americans reacted to the pandemic by purchasing guns and ammunition in massive numbers. What does this mean for public safety? And how can policymakers ensure that this doesn't result in more injuries or deaths?
Jun 18, 2020
USA Today
Crime and Violence Prevention

'Stand Your Ground' Laws May Be Causing More Harm Than Good
Americans have debated whether “stand your ground” laws or gun-free zones make us safer or less safe for decades. These are debates about factual matters that are, in principle, knowable. Without research on these and other topics, bad laws will inadvertently be passed or retained.
Sep 12, 2019
Orlando Sentinel
Gun Violence

How to Bring Facts into the Gun Policy Debate
As debate continues to rage over the causes and prevention of gun violence, it's worth asking how science can help lawmakers and the public resolve longstanding disagreements that have stood in the way of solutions.
Mar 9, 2018
USA Today
Military Acquisition and Procurement

Improving DHS Accountability for Acquisitions
While management at the Department of Homeland Security progressed in many areas during the past decade, there is still plenty of room for growth and improvement, especially in the area of acquisition management.
Apr 22, 2014
The RAND Blog
Wildfires

Investing in Firefighting
While the U.S. Forest Service has not completely agreed with RAND's proposal to transition to a fleet dominated by water-dropping scooper aircraft for fighting fires, they have leased one CL-415 scooper aircraft. It might be more cost-effective for the USFS to simply purchase it outright.
Dec 30, 2013
The Orange County Register
Is Enforcement Key to Fixing America's Immigration System?
The current debate regarding comprehensive immigration reform offers an opportunity to redesign the worksite immigration enforcement system to achieve more efficient enforcement with better intelligence on where undocumented workers are employed, say Andrew Morral and Peter Brownell.
Feb 15, 2013
CNN
Gun Violence

Firearms and Gun Control: Many Questions, Some Answers
President Obama's task force on gun violence has raised the stakes in the policy debate on gun control and policy in the wake of the recent shootings in Colorado and Connecticut. Some of RAND's top researchers share what is, and what isn't, known about firearms and gun control.
Jan 17, 2013
The RAND Blog
Focus on the Worst Ex-Cons and Boost Community-Based Rehab
Focus on the Worst Ex-Cons and Boost Community-Based Rehab in Riverside Press-Enterprise
May 27, 2007
Riverside Press-Enterprise

Publications

Tool
Visualizing Firearm Mortality and Law Effects: An Interactive Web-Based Tool
This tool provides users with information about the distribution of firearm deaths across states and demographic subgroups. Users can explore how those deaths might be affected by the implementation of a set of commonly enacted state firearm laws.
Feb 23, 2023
Testimony
State Firearm Laws and Suicide Prevention
Testimony presented before the Vermont House Committee on Health Care on February 14, 2023.
Feb 14, 2023
Report
The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Third Edition
This report, now in its third edition, synthesizes the available scientific evidence for the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes.
Jan 10, 2023
Report
State Firearm Laws After Bruen
The Supreme Court's decision in Bruen is a major change to Second Amendment jurisprudence and could lead to significant changes in the U.S. firearm regulations. The authors describe how state regulations will now be evaluated by lower courts.
Nov 4, 2022
Research Brief
Actions the Army Can Take to Reduce Sexual Assault, Sexual Harassment, and Gender Discrimination
This research brief highlights top-line findings from four different projects that have implications for strategies to prevent sexual harassment and sexual assault in the U.S. Army.
Oct 20, 2022
Tool
Using National Instant Criminal Background Check Data for Gun Policy Analysis: A Discussion of Available Data and Their Limitations
In this tool, researchers provide detailed information about data associated with the National Instant Criminal Background Check System and discuss the data's strengths and weaknesses for various gun policy evaluation objectives.
Sep 8, 2022
Journal Article
Geographic Disparities in Rising Rates of Firearm-Related Homicide
Our study shows that the rise since 2014 in firearms homicides is concentrated in south-central and midwestern states, and in American Indian and Alaskan Natives, and Black communities, thereby exacerbating existing disparities.
Jul 19, 2022
Tool
Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial for the R TWANG Package
This tutorial describes the use of the TWANG package in R to estimate propensity score weights when there are two treatment groups, and how to use TWANG to estimate nonresponse weights.
Jul 7, 2022
Tool
Development of the RAND State Firearm Law Database and Supporting Materials
Part of RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative, the RAND State Firearm Law Database is a longitudinal data set of state firearm laws that is free to the public to support improved analysis and understanding of the effects of various laws.
Jun 28, 2022
Draft
Evaluating Baltimore's Aerial Investigation Research Pilot Program
Using a Bayesian statistical analytic framework, investigates whether the Baltimore Police Department's use of aerial surveillance could help detectives solve serious violent crimes.
May 9, 2022
Report
Gender Differences in Health Among U.S. Service Members: Unwanted Gender-Based Experiences as an Explanatory Factor
This report examines how experiences of sexual harassment, gender discrimination, and sexual assault among military service members relate to general health and symptoms of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder.
Apr 4, 2022
Report
Suggestions for Estimating the Effects of State Gun Policies: Commentary on Four Methodological Problems in the Current Literature
In this report, the authors discuss four common methodological problems that they observed in the literature evaluating gun policies and offer suggestions for how future research on gun policies could be improved.
Feb 15, 2022
Report
The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts: Second Edition
This report describes combined results from two fieldings of a survey of gun policy experts designed to identify areas of agreement and whether disagreements stem from assumptions about the policies' effects or from differences in policy objectives.
Nov 30, 2021
Report
Symptoms of Depression and Posttraumatic Stress Disorder as Predictors of Separation from the U.S. Military
In this report, the authors evaluate the relationship between service members' self-reported symptoms of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder and subsequent separation from the military, finding a significant association between the two.
Oct 26, 2021
Report
Survey Instrument to Assess the Prevalence of Hazing and Bullying in the Active-Duty U.S. Military
The authors describe the development and design of a survey instrument created to help the U.S. Department of Defense estimate the number of active-duty service members who experience hazing and bullying.
Oct 18, 2021
Research Brief
Characteristics of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Army: Implications for Prevention Efforts
This research brief highlights top-line findings from two projects that have implications for strategies to prevent sexual harassment and sexual assault in the U.S. Army.
Aug 2, 2021
Report
Evaluating Baltimore's Aerial Investigation Research Pilot Program: Interim Report
This report provides interim findings on the Aerial Investigation Research pilot program, a Baltimore Police Department program in which manned aircraft equipped with cameras gathered evidence to support crime investigations.
Jul 29, 2021
Report
Organizational Characteristics Associated with Risk of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Army
Researchers extended previous analyses that produced estimates of sexual assault and harassment risk across installations and commands. The extended analyses showed variation in risk of sexual assault and sexual harassment across groups of soldiers.
Jun 18, 2021
Research Brief
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Army: Where Cases are Highest and Why
This research summarizes estimates of sexual assault risk and sexual harassment risk across U.S. Army installations and command, showing variation in these risks across groups of soldiers.
Jun 18, 2021
Report
Sexual Assault of Sexual Minorities in the U.S. Military
The authors of this report estimate the proportion of all sexually assaulted military service members who identify as lesbian, gay, or bisexual or who do not indicate they identify as heterosexual.
Jun 1, 2021
Report
Risk Factors for Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Findings from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This report describes analyses, using data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, designed to identify service member and environmental characteristics that are associated with each individual's risk of sexual assault or sexual harassment.
May 24, 2021
Tool
Inpatient Hospitalizations for Firearm Injury: Estimating State-Level Rates from 2000 to 2016
RAND researchers developed a database of state-level estimates of inpatient hospitalizations for firearm injury. This document describes the methods used to construct the estimates and provides technical documentation to facilitate database use.
Apr 27, 2021
Report
The Relationship Between Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Findings from the RAND Military Workplace Study
This report describes analyses, using data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, designed to identify how the sexual harassment of others in a service member's work environment affects his or her own risk of being sexually assaulted.
Mar 2, 2021
Report
Effects of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment on Separation from the U.S. Military: Findings from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This report describes analyses, using data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, designed to assess the effects of sexual assault and sexual harassment on service members' decisions to separate from the military.
Feb 8, 2021
Report
Preliminary Findings from the Aerial Investigation Research Pilot Program
This report provides preliminary findings on the Aerial Investigation Research pilot program, a Baltimore Police Department program in which manned aircraft equipped with cameras gathered evidence to support crime investigations.
Jan 27, 2021
Journal Article
Changes in Firearm Mortality Following the Implementation of State Laws Regulating Firearm Access and Use
Laws that regulate children's access to firearms, the carrying of a concealed firearm, and the use of a firearm in self-defense, are associated with an 11% decrease in the firearms-related death rate.
Jun 26, 2020
Report
The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States, Second Edition
This report, the second edition of an earlier work, synthesizes the available scientific evidence for the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes.
Apr 22, 2020
Tool
State-Level Estimates of Household Firearm Ownership
As part of the Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers developed annual, state-level estimates of household firearm ownership from 1980 to 2016, which should help further research on the relationship between firearm ownership and key outcomes.
Apr 22, 2020
Report
Comparing the Army's Suicide Rate to the General U.S. Population: Identifying Suitable Characteristics, Data Sources, and Analytic Approaches
Researchers investigate how accounting for demographic factors beyond age and gender (race/ethnicity, time, marital status, and educational attainment) affects suicide rate differences between soldiers and the general U.S. population.
Mar 10, 2020
Journal Article
Impact on Nonfirearm Deaths of Firearm Laws Affecting Firearm Deaths: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
State gun policies that reduce firearm homicides are likely to reduce overall homicides in the state by approximately the same number. It is currently unknown whether the same holds for state gun policies that significantly reduce firearm suicides.
2020
Testimony
Scientific Evidence on the Effects of State Gun Laws
Testimony presented before the Pennsylvania State Senate Judiciary Committee on September 25, 2019.
Sep 25, 2019
Report
Development of a Short Form Measure of Sexual Harassment Risk in the Military: Findings from the RAND Military Workplace Study
RAND has developed a short version of a survey that investigates sexual harassment in the military. The original RAND survey contained up to 52 questions. This report discusses the accuracy of a five-question version of the longer survey.
Sep 12, 2019
Testimony
Reducing Disagreements on Gun Policy Through Scientific Research and an Improved Data Infrastructure
Testimony presented before the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies on March 7, 2019.
Mar 7, 2019
Report
Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Effect of State Laws on Firearm Deaths: A Simulation Study
As part of the RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative, the authors use simulations to assess the performance of a wide range of statistical models used to estimate the effects of state gun policies on firearm deaths.
Dec 10, 2018
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Volume 5. Estimates for Installation- and Command-Level Risk of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This volume presents survey estimates of how risk of sexual assault and sexual harassment varies across military installations and major commands using data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study.
Sep 21, 2018
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Annex to Volume 5. Tabular Results from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study for Installation- and Command-Level Risk of Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment
This Annex to Volume 5 presents survey estimates of how risk of sexual assault and sexual harassment varies across military installations and major commands using data from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study.
Sep 21, 2018
Report
The Magnitude and Sources of Disagreement Among Gun Policy Experts
This report, part of RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative, describes results from a survey of gun policy experts to identify where there are shared or divergent beliefs about gun policies and where disagreements concern facts rather than values.
Mar 2, 2018
Report
The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States
This report synthesizes the available scientific evidence on the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes.
Mar 2, 2018
Report
The Justice Innovation Center: Identifying the Needs and Challenges of Criminal Justice Agencies in Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Areas
The Justice Innovation Center provides information on technology needs, priorities, and solutions for small, rural, tribal, and border criminal justice agencies. This report summarizes the center's first year of efforts.
Nov 16, 2016
Report
Evaluating Methods and Findings from a Study of State Gun Policies
A RAND study team reviewed an article on the effects of state firearm laws and found problems in its methods and findings. This report provides an account of the errors detected and statistical support for the study team's conclusions.
Jul 14, 2016
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Volume 2. Estimates for Department of Defense Service Members from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This volume presents survey results for the DoD active and reserve components from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of the rates of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the U.S. military.
Apr 15, 2016
Research Brief
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Evaluating Estimates from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This research brief describes the methodological review of sources of potential bias in the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of the rates of sexual assault and sexual harassment in the U.S. military.
Apr 7, 2016
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Volume 4. Investigations of Potential Bias in Estimates from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This volume presents the results of methodological investigations into sources of potential bias in the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of the rates of sexual assault and sexual harassment in the U.S. military.
Mar 16, 2016
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Annex to Volume 3. Tabular Results from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study for Coast Guard Service Members
This Annex to Volume 3 contains detailed tabular results from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study on sexual assault and sexual harassment experiences of members of the U.S. Coast Guard active component.
May 27, 2015
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Volume 3. Estimates for Coast Guard Service Members from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This volume presents survey results from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study on the sexual assault and sexual harassment experiences of members of the U.S. Coast Guard and the Coast Guard Reserve.
May 27, 2015
Research Brief
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Highlights from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This brief presents major conclusions for Department of Defense service members from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of the rates of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the U.S. military.
May 1, 2015
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Annex to Volume 2. Tabular Results from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study for Department of Defense Service Members
Annex to Volume 2 contains detailed tabular results for the DoD active component from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of the rates of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the U.S. military.
May 1, 2015
Multimedia
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: A Review of Top-Line Findings from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This video presents initial top-line estimates from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the military.
Dec 4, 2014
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Top-Line Estimates for Active-Duty Coast Guard Members from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This report provides initial top-line active-duty Coast Guard estimates from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an assessment of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the military.
Dec 4, 2014
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Volume 1. Design of the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This volume documents the methodology used in the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the U.S. military.
Dec 4, 2014
Report
Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the U.S. Military: Top-Line Estimates for Active-Duty Service Members from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study
This report provides initial top-line estimates from the 2014 RAND Military Workplace Study, an independent assessment of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and gender discrimination in the military.
Dec 4, 2014
Report
Police Department Investments in Information Technology Systems: Challenges Assessing Their Payoff
As police departments and other public service providers manage reduced budgets, RAND researchers explored the rationale and evidence supporting the idea that IT investments can increase efficiency in policing, and do so cost-effectively.
Sep 25, 2014
Report
Effective Policing for 21st-Century Israel: Dual English and Hebrew edition
This report (available in both English and Hebrew) describes a study to address how the Israel Police might institute changes enabling it to better serve the needs of modern Israel.
May 2, 2014
Report
An Assessment of Program Sustainability in Three Bureau of Justice Assistance Criminal Justice Domains
Some Bureau of Justice Assistance programs sustain operations or funding after initial funding ends. This report outlines strategies for helping programs sustain themselves and recommends a plan for ongoing measurement of sustainability.
Apr 21, 2014
Report
Reducing the Cost and Risk of Major Acquisitions at the Department of Homeland Security
This paper is intended to help improve Department of Homeland Security acquisition management and oversight by providing a common problem definition, conceptual framework, and recommendations to improve efficiency and effectiveness.
Feb 28, 2013
Report
Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA's Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods
RAND evaluated a terrorism risk modeling tool developed by the Transportation Security Administration and Boeing to help guide program planning for aviation security.
Nov 26, 2012
Report
Efficient Aviation Security: Strengthening the Analytic Foundation for Making Air Transportation Security Decisions
Presents a set of analyses intended to help fill some of the current gaps in analysis of the costs, benefits, and efficiency of aviation security measures and strategies in the face of uncertainty.
Aug 21, 2012
Report
Air Attack Against Wildfires: Understanding U.S. Forest Service Requirements for Large Aircraft
A RAND study sought to help the U.S. Forest Service determine the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires, including the cost of large fires and aircraft costs.
Jul 30, 2012
Research Brief
Identifying a Cost-Effective Aviation Fleet for the U.S. Forest Service
This brief provides an overview of a RAND study to support the U.S. Forest Service in determining the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires.
Jul 30, 2012
Journal Article
The Effectiveness of Community-Based Delivery of an Evidence-Based Treatment for Adolescent Substance Use
This study evaluates the effectiveness of motivational enhancement therapy/cognitive behavioral therapy–5 (MET/CBT-5) when delivered in community practice settings relative to standard community-based adolescent treatment.
2012
Report
Measuring Illegal Border Crossing Between Ports of Entry: An Assessment of Four Promising Methods
Compelling methods for estimating the total flow of illicit U.S. border crossings do not yet exist. This paper describes four innovative and promising approaches to estimating the total flow of illicit border crossings between ports of entry.
Mar 18, 2011
Journal Article
Associations Between Abstinence in Adolescence and Economic and Educational Outcomes Seven Years Later Among High-Risk Youth
This study found that abstinence from all substance use for 12 months among a sample of 13-17 year olds was associated with positive long-term educational and economic outcomes relative to use of any substance.
2011
Journal Article
Using a Cross-Study Design to Assess the Efficacy of Motivational Enhancement Therapy-Cognitive Behavioral Therapy 5 (MET/CBT5) in Treating Adolescents with Cannabis-Related Disorders
Youth with marijuana problems who received a research-based treatment (motivational enhancement therapy plus cognitive behavioral therapy [MET/CBT5]) had better outcomes than similar youth treated in community-based programs.
2011
Journal Article
Before Disaster Strikes: Imperatives for Enhancing Defense Support of Civil Authorities
The report of the "Advisory Panel on Department of Defense Capabilities for Support of Civil Authorities After Certain Incidents" provides more than 40 recommendations about how the nation can overcome obstacles that complicate the nation's ability to respond effectively to CBRNE incidents.
Sep 1, 2010
Journal Article
Long-term Effect of Community-Based Treatment: Evidence from the Adolescent Outcomes Project
A growing literature on adolescent drug treatment interventions demonstrates the efficacy of research therapies, but few rigorous studies examine the effectiveness of community-based treatments that are more commonly available to and utilized by youths and their families, the criminal justice system and other referring agencies. This study evaluates the effects 72-102 months after intake to a widely disseminated community-based treatment model, residential therapeutic community treatment, using data from RAND's Adolescent Outcomes Project.
Feb 1, 2010
Journal Article
How Perceptions of Mortality and HIV Morbidity Relate to Substance Abuse Problems and Risky Sexual Behaviors Among Former Juvenile Offenders
Youth who think they are likely to get HIV are at greater risk for later substance abuse problems and risky sexual behaviors, but this perception doesn't cause them to reduce their substance use and change their behavior.
2010
Journal Article
Shaping Smoking Cessation in Hard-To-Treat Smokers
Setting intermediate criteria between the present behavior and total abstinence can improve outcomes for hard to treat smokers.
2010
Report
Understanding the Role of Deterrence in Counterterrorism Security
Deterrence -- a central feature of counterterrorism security systems -- is not well understood or measured. This paper offers a framework for understanding how security affects terrorist planning and for measuring these systems' deterrent value.
Nov 30, 2009
Journal Article
Seven-year Life Outcomes of Adolescent Offenders in Los Angeles
The authors examined important life outcomes for adolescent offenders to describe how they were faring in young adulthood.
2009
Research Brief
Assessing the New York City Police Department Firearm Training and Firearm-Discharge Review Process
This research brief summarizes the results of an assessment of the NYPD's firearm training and firearm-discharge review process, including a review of reflexive shootings, officers involved in shootings, and less-than-lethal force options.
Jun 3, 2008
Report
Evaluation of the New York City Police Department Firearm Training and Firearm-Discharge Review Process
In January 2007, New York City Police Commissioner Raymond W. Kelly asked the RAND Corporation to examine his department's firearm training and firearm-discharge review. This monograph reports the authors' observations, findings, and recommendations.
Jun 1, 2008
Journal Article
An Application of the Principal Stratification to Control for Institutionalization at Follow-Up in Studies of Substance Abuse Treatment Programs
Participants in longitudinal studies on the effects of drug treatment and criminal justice system interventions are at high risk for institutionalization. Use of principal stratification to control for institutionalization at follow-up is evaluated.
2008
Journal Article
Inconsistencies in Self-Reported Drug Use by Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment: Implications for Outcome and Performance Measurements
Inconsistencies in adolescent reporting of recent substance use are associated with program assignment and factors that influence treatment outcomes, including age at first use, living situation, race/ethnicity, and mental distress.
2008
Journal Article
The Longitudinal Association Between Substance Use and Delinquency Among High-Risk Youth
Over the past two decades, studies have provided evidence for the strong link between substance use (SU) and delinquency among adolescents.
2008
Journal Article
A Prospective Investigation of Suicide Ideation, Attempts, and Use of Mental Health Service Among Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment
This study examined suicide ideation, attempts, and subsequent mental health service among a sample of 948 youth from substance abuse treatment facilities across the United States.
2008
Report
Interpreting Treatment Effects When Cases Are Institutionalized After Treatment
Develops a causal modeling framework for evaluating the standard approaches for addressing the confounding of the effects of ignoring institutionalization of drug treatment clients and other effects, and illustrates the results of each approach.
Sep 11, 2007
Research Brief
Using Outcomes to Assess Teen Substance-Use Treatment Programs—How Feasible?
This study explored using outcome data to assess adolescent substance abuse treatment program performance. However, this approach may be problematic. A more promising approach may be to identify quality-of-care indicators for assessing performance.
Jul 11, 2007
Journal Article
Interpreting Treatment Effects When Cases Are Institutionalized After Treatment
The authors discuss the implications of our analysis for longitudinal studies of all populations at high risk for institutionalization.
Jul 1, 2007
Journal Article
Contingencies for Change in Complacent Smokers
The majority of smokers have no plans to quit in the near future.
2007
Journal Article
The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment
This study reports results from an evaluation of the experimental Rio Hondo driving under the influence (DUI) court of Los Angeles County, California.
2007
Journal Article
Smoking Rates Among Adolescents in Substance Abuse Treatment Programs
Substance abuse treatment programs often do not target smoking, despite its long-term health risks
2007
Report
The Relative Effectiveness of 10 Adolescent Substance Abuse Treatment Programs in the United States
Reports results of interviews of youths treated in 11 adolescent programs that had been identified as having suggestive evidence of effectiveness, to learn whether they had better outcomes than they would have had at other facilities.
May 15, 2006
Journal Article
Acculturation and Driving Under the Influence: A Study of Repeat Offenders
Acculturation may be a risk factor for repeat DUI convictions.
2006
Report
Acculturation and Driving Under the Influence: A Study of Repeat Offenders
Finds that among a sample of Hispanic drivers in California with repeat driving under the influence (DUI) offenses, the less-acculturated members were more likely to report a repeat DUI conviction at two-year follow-up than more-acculturated ones.
Jan 1, 2006
Journal Article
Is the Drug Court Model Exportable? The Cost-Effectiveness of a Driving-Under-The-Influence Court
The authors assessed the cost-effectiveness of the Rio Hondo driving-under-the-influence (DUI) court.
2006
Journal Article
Marijuana Use and Depression Among Adults: Testing for Causal Associations
Past-year marijuana use does not significantly predict later development of depression.
2006
Journal Article
Perspectives on Therapeutic Treatment from Adolescent Probationers
Little is known about youths' experiences in residential adolescent treatment programs.
2006
Journal Article
Predicting DUI Recidivism: Personality, Attitudinal, and Behavioral Risk Factors
To predict DUI recidivism using personality, attitudinal, and behavioral factors.
2006
Journal Article
Reducing Substance Use Improves Adolescents' School Attendance
Substance use initiation and frequency are associated with reduced educational attainments among adolescents. Reductions in the frequency of alcohol, stimulants and other drug use and the elimination of marijuana use were each associated independently with increased likelihoods of school attendance.
2006
Report
Estimating Terrorism Risk
This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation.
Oct 12, 2005
Report
Drink-Driving and DUI Recidivists' Attitudes and Beliefs: A Longitudinal Analysis
Interviews with those convicted of diving under the influence show that significant protective effects are associated with the beliefs that driving after drinking is immoral and that random police sobriety checks are a good idea.
2005
Journal Article
Dynamic Effects Among Patients' Treatment Needs, Beliefs, and Utilization: A Prospective Study of Adolescents in Drug Treatment
To document the relationships among substance use problems, utilization of drug treatment, and beliefs thought to increase treatment utilization.
2005
Journal Article
Shaping Reduced Smoking in Smokers Without Cessation Plans
Most smokers do not plan to quit in the next 6 months.
2005
Journal Article
Effectiveness of Community-Based Treatment for Substance-Abusing Adolescents: 12-Month Outcomes of Youths Entering Phoenix Academy or Alternative Probation Dispositions
Compares the 12-month outcomes of adolescent probationers who received Phoenix Academy, a therapeutic community for adolescents that uses a treatment model that is widely implemented across the U.S., or an alternative probation disposition.
2004
Research Brief
Evaluating Substance Abuse Treatment Programs for Adolescent Probationers
In this study, RAND researchers found that one substance abuse treatment program helped young probationers reduce substance abuse and improve their psychological functioning.
2004
Journal Article
How Can Repeat Drunk Drivers Be Influenced to Change? Analysis of the Association Between Drunk Driving and DUI Recidivists' Attitudes and Belief
Behavioral controls may protect against alcohol-impaired driving behavior even in a high-risk sample of repeat DUI offenders.
2004
Journal Article
Improving Contingency Management Programs for Addiction
Contingency management interventions effectively reduce or eliminate some individuals' problem substance use.
2004
Report
Propensity Score Estimation with Boosted Regression for Evaluating Causal Effects in Observational Studies
Propensity score weights estimated using boosting eliminate most pretreatment group differences and substantially alter the apparent relative effects of adolescent substance abuse treatment.
2004
Journal Article
Shaping Smoking Cessation Using Percentile Schedules
Behavioral interventions that provide incentives contingent upon abstinence are effective addiction treatments.
2004
Journal Article
Adolescent Social Relationships and the Treatment Process: Findings from Quantitative and Qualitative Analyses
Juvenile justice systems increasingly rely on placement of substance-involved adolescents in residential group homes.
2003
Journal Article
An Evaluation of Substance Abuse Treatment Services for Juvenile Probationers at Phoenix Academy of Los Angeles
Established in 1987, the program model, called Phoenix Academy, is a modified therapeutic community for adolescents that integrates an on-site public school into the treatment milieu. The model employs the view that substance abuse is the outward manifestation of a broad set of personal and developmental problems.
2003
Journal Article
An Evaluation of Substance Abuse Treatment Services for Juvenile Probationers at Phoenix Academy of Los Angeles
In this chapter the authors describe the Phoenix Academy program.
2003
Journal Article
The Influence of Partner Drug Use and Relationship Power on Treatment Engagement
Relationship power dynamics may be important influences on the treatment process, and dimensions of power may interact with partner drug use status.
2003
Journal Article
Measurement of Adolescent Drug Use
There is widespread agreement that estimates of adolescent drug use prevalence from the NHSDA and MTF are subject to considerable measurement error.
2003
Journal Article
Mental Health and Medical Problems and Service Use Among Adolescent Substance Users
More could be done to take advantage of the opportunity to link youths entering substance use treatment with mental health services.
2003
Journal Article
Retention of Court-Referred Youth in Residential Treatment Programs: Client Characteristics and Treatment Process Effects
The juvenile justice system relies heavily on residential treatment services for adolescents.
2003
Journal Article
Evidence Does Not Favor Marijuana Gateway Effects Over a Common-Factor Interpretation of Drug Use Initiation: Responses to Anthony, Kenkel, & Mathios and Lynskey
Evaluation of prohibition policies should balance the known harms of legal access to marijuana against those associated with marijuana prohibition.
Dec 1, 2002
Journal Article
A Decade of Drug Treatment Court Research
This article explores the decade of drug treatment court research conducted at RAND.
2002
Journal Article
Phoenix Academy at Lake View Terrace, California: Clinical Manual and Program Description of an Adolescent Therapeutic Community
2002
Journal Article
Reassessing the Marijuana Gateway Effect
The common-factor model has implications for evaluating marijuana control policies that differ significantly from those supported by the gateway model.
2002
Research Brief
Using Marijuana May Not Raise the Risk of Using Harder Drugs
A recent analysis by RAND's Drug Policy Research Center (DPRC) suggests that data typically used to support a marijuana gateway effect can be explained as well by a different theory.
2002
Report
Drug Courts: A Conceptual Framework
Drug Courts: A Conceptual Framework
2001
Journal Article
Technology Transfer Through Performance Management: The Effects of Graphical Feedback and Positive Reinforcement on Drug Treatment Counselors' Behavior
Feedback and positive reinforcement could be used to improve technology transfer of behavioral interventions into community clinic settings.
2001
Report
Hardcore Drug Users Claim to be Occasional Users: Drug Use Frequency Underreporting
This study examines the accuracy of 701 frequency self-reports made by a sample of methadone maintenance clients. Self-report accuracy is evaluated by comparing rates of positive urinalyses found for each case with rates that would be expected had drug use occurred only as often as reported.
2000
Journal Article
Identifying Methadone Maintenance Clients at Risk for Poor Treatment Response: Pretreatment and Early Progress Indicators
Exhaustive searches have uncovered few demographic or other pretreatment factors that reliably predict performance in substance abuse treatment.
1999
Journal Article
Reducing Drug Use by Encouraging Alternative Behaviors
Abstaining from illicit drugs deprives chronic drug users of powerfully reinforcing events.
1999
Journal Article
Influence of Emotional Engagement and Habituation on Exposure Therapy for PTSD
This study examined 2 process variables, emotional engagement and habituation, and outcome of exposure therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder.
1998
Journal Article
MMPI Profiles of Opiate Addicts: Predicting Response to Treatment
Although many studies document the use of the MMPI to classify opiate users, the predictive validity of the resulting subgroups is rarely reported.
1998
Journal Article
Assessing the Helping Alliance and Its Impact in the Treatment of Opiate Dependence
This study assesses the relationship between the patient-counselor helping alliance (HA) and progress in methadone maintenance treatment.
1997
Journal Article
Natural Classes of Treatment Response
This study examines an approach to identifying patterns of treatment response over time.
1997
Journal Article
Reinforcing Operants Other Than Abstinence in Drug Abuse Treatment: An Effective Alternative for Reducing Drug Use
These effects were maintained with a trend toward continuing improvement for the TP groups even after contingencies were discontinued.
1997
Journal Article
Contingent Reinforcement of Group Participation Versus Abstinence in a Methadone Maintenance Program
Effectiveness of 2 types of contingency management interventions on reducing unauthorized drug use among methadone maintenance patients.
1996