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Nuclear Deterrence

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The range of nuclear deterrence strategies includes minimal or "limited" deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction ("MAD"). From RAND's Soviet-era work on game theory to today's current states of concern, such as North Korea and Iran, RAND has applied strategic analysis to international deterrence efforts, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global and regional security.

Commentary
How Kim's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Agenda
North Korea has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its provocations, continuing its nuclear weapon–buildup while threatening attacks against South Korea and the United States. Why is Kim Jong-un making such excessive investments in North Korea's nuclear and weapons programs and showing off its capabilities?
Apr 19, 2023
Commentary
Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.
Mar 6, 2023

Explore Nuclear Deterrence

Report
Unraveling Entanglement: Policy Implications of Using Non-Dedicated Systems for Nuclear Command and Control
Recent arguments have emphasized the increased risk of inadvertent escalation from integrating and comingling conventional and nuclear command and control (NC2) systems. In this report, the authors argue that these concerns are overstated. However, they also point out that certain risks associated with using non-dedicated systems for NC2 warrant more-focused attention.
Mar 9, 2023
Journal Article
Potential Implications of the Russia–Ukraine War for Northeast Asia
Commentary on potential lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war bearing on deterrence in Northeast Asia, including lessons related to nuclear weapons.
Feb 21, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Global Commons
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia on global commons issues, including freedom of access to space, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting global stability.
Feb 20, 2023
Commentary
Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.
Feb 15, 2023
Commentary
Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security
Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.
Dec 28, 2022
Report
Responding to a Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War
The Ukraine war has created a unique set of circumstances that make a limited Russian attack against a NATO target plausible. If such an attack were to occur, how might the United States and NATO respond?
Dec 20, 2022
Commentary
North Korea's Version of 'Take Your Daughter to Work Day'
With the spotlight having long been fixed on the nuclear issue, the public debut of Kim Jong-un's “most beloved” child seems as though it could be an impeccably timed distraction to keep the international community from focusing on seeking an enduring solution to Pyongyang's rapidly advancing weapons systems.
Dec 12, 2022
Commentary
Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake
Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.
Oct 19, 2022
Commentary
Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?
The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.
Oct 11, 2022
Commentary
The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?
The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.
Oct 10, 2022
Commentary
A Moment of Strategic Clarity
With the Russian mobilization and declared annexation, whatever prospects there were for a negotiated peace seem to have all but vanished. Any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order.
Oct 3, 2022
Blog
Veterans Health Care, Media Literacy, Sleep Retreats: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the challenges of VA community care, the importance of improving middle schoolers' media literacy skills, tips to improve sleep, and more.
Sep 9, 2022
Blog
Back to School, Vaccinating Kids, Space Security: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the well-being of America's educators, the effort to vaccinate kids and teens, security in outer space, and more.
Sep 2, 2022
Report
Potential Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO
A Russia-NATO war is far from an inevitable outcome of the current conflict in Ukraine. U.S. and allied policymakers should be concerned with specific pathways and potential triggers, but they need not operate under the assumption that every action will entail acute escalation risks.
Jul 26, 2022
Commentary
Three Principles for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security
In his inaugural address in 1998, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung defined three principles for Korean Peninsula peace and security. How might these principles be adjusted to manage today's changing North Korean threats and the Korean security environment?
May 20, 2022
Journal Article
Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.
Apr 5, 2022
Commentary
A Renewed Nuclear Deal With Iran: Turning Back the Clock?
Diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran are in Vienna trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015. But even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago.
Mar 4, 2022
Report
Instability in the U.S.-Russia Deterrence Relationship
U.S.-Russian strategic stability is based on mutual vulnerability to retaliation, which eliminates the incentive to strike first. But the United States has developed counterforce capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. What could be done to address Russia's concerns and increase stability?
Feb 17, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Nuclear Deterrence

Topic Synonyms:
Nuclear Strategy

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Weilong Kong

Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND

Weilong (David) Kong is an assistant policy researcher at RAND and a Ph.D. candidate at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Prior to joining Pardee RAND, he was a senior public administrative analyst at the Luskin Center for Innovation at the University of California, Los Angeles, where he…
Michael J. Mazarr

Senior Political Scientist

Michael J. Mazarr is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Previously he worked at the U.S. National War College, where he was professor and associate dean of academics; as president of the Henry L. Stimson Center; senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International…

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