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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

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Nuclear weapons, the means of producing them, and their potential use play significant roles in international relations and homeland security. Throughout its history, RAND has provided detailed analyses and recommendations for defense planners and helped policymakers make informed national security decisions with regard to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the nuclear activities of India, Pakistan, China, North Korea, Iran, and other nations.

Report
Weighing the Cost and Necessity of Nuclear Modernization
The United States has fielded a Triad of air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear delivery systems since the 1950s. Major components are nearing the end of their service lives, raising the question of whether to extend or replace them. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to modernize, diversify, and expand their nuclear arsenals.
Jan 3, 2022
Commentary
North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace
Nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea have hovered at a standstill since 2019. With the door to diplomacy seemingly closed and North Korea marching forward on weapons development and making threatening statements, what are the prospects for Pyongyang's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula?
Dec 16, 2021

Explore Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Report
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 1, Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations
RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.
May 9, 2023
Research Brief
The Aftermath of a Great Power War
A review of historical great power wars shows that prewar predictions about who would fight, how long the war would last, and how the world would look afterward were often wrong. It's important to understand what the outcomes of different conflicts could look like and how to better prepare for them.
May 9, 2023
Blog
Violence in Sudan, Alcohol Use, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the violence in Sudan, preventing alcohol-related deaths, the North Korean nuclear threat, and more.
Apr 28, 2023
Commentary
Countering Russia's Nuclear Threat in Europe
President Vladimir Putin's announced plan to put nuclear arms in Belarus may pose risks to NATO's nuclear posture. Three decades after the Soviet collapse, some allies might be uneasy about reenergizing NATO's nuclear mission. But others might argue that not responding to Russia's plans could cause the Kremlin to doubt NATO's nuclear credibility.
Apr 20, 2023
Commentary
How Kim's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Agenda
North Korea has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its provocations, continuing its nuclear weapon–buildup while threatening attacks against South Korea and the United States. Why is Kim Jong-un making such excessive investments in North Korea's nuclear and weapons programs and showing off its capabilities?
Apr 19, 2023
Commentary
Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater
Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. How do we interpret Putin's statements? While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda.
Apr 17, 2023
Blog
20 Years After the Iraq War, China-Russia Ties, Correctional Education: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on reflecting on the Iraq War, the pandemic and prison education, North Korea’s latest threats, and more.
Mar 24, 2023
Commentary
North Korea Is Forcing U.S. Military Counters
If the U.S. military shoots down a North Korean ICBM fired in the direction of the United States and its territories, North Korea will regard it as an act of war. Even in the realm of North Korean rhetoric, this is extreme.
Mar 14, 2023
Report
Unraveling Entanglement: Policy Implications of Using Non-Dedicated Systems for Nuclear Command and Control
Recent arguments have emphasized the increased risk of inadvertent escalation from integrating and comingling conventional and nuclear command and control (NC2) systems. In this report, the authors argue that these concerns are overstated. However, they also point out that certain risks associated with using non-dedicated systems for NC2 warrant more-focused attention.
Mar 9, 2023
Commentary
Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.
Mar 6, 2023
Commentary
A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea
There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?
Mar 2, 2023
Commentary
Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation
If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?
Feb 27, 2023
Journal Article
Potential Implications of the Russia–Ukraine War for Northeast Asia
Commentary on potential lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war bearing on deterrence in Northeast Asia, including lessons related to nuclear weapons.
Feb 21, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Global Commons
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia on global commons issues, including freedom of access to space, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting global stability.
Feb 20, 2023
Commentary
Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.
Feb 15, 2023
Report
Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity
In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.
Feb 13, 2023
Commentary
Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security
Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.
Dec 28, 2022
Report
Responding to a Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War
The Ukraine war has created a unique set of circumstances that make a limited Russian attack against a NATO target plausible. If such an attack were to occur, how might the United States and NATO respond?
Dec 20, 2022
Commentary
North Korea's Version of 'Take Your Daughter to Work Day'
With the spotlight having long been fixed on the nuclear issue, the public debut of Kim Jong-un's “most beloved” child seems as though it could be an impeccably timed distraction to keep the international community from focusing on seeking an enduring solution to Pyongyang's rapidly advancing weapons systems.
Dec 12, 2022
Report
Russian Military Strategy: Organizing Operations for the Initial Period of War
The authors of this report identify and examine several factors to assess the orientation of Russian military strategy, including the balance of power, Russian diplomacy with China, views on future war, and trends in force readiness and mobilization.
Nov 22, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Edward Geist

Policy Researcher

Edward Geist is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include Russia (primarily defense policy), civil defense, artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and the potential impact of emerging technologies on nuclear strategy. He was formerly a MacArthur Nuclear…
Lisa Saum-Manning

Acting Associate Director, International Security and Defense Policy Program

Lisa Saum-Manning is an acting associate director of the International Security and Defense Policy Program, part of the RAND National Security Research Division. She recently served as a Senior Advisor to the Assistant Secretary of State for the Conflict and Stabilization Office. Her research…

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