Angela O'Mahony

Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, Pardee RAND Graduate School; Senior Political Scientist, RAND

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, University of California, San Diego; B.A. in economics, University of California, Los Angeles

One Page Bio

Overview

Angela (Angel) O'Mahony is associate dean for academic affairs at Pardee RAND Graduate School and a senior political scientist at RAND.

O'Mahony has led RAND research projects examining security cooperation and defense posture, forecasting conflict trends, assessing multinational interoperability, projecting public support for terrorism, improving biosurveillance systems, and building support within organizations for change. Methodologically, she has led work on computational social-behavioral modelling for complex environments, and uncertainty-sensitive approaches to understanding decisionmaking. Other projects included work on the national security implications of virtual currency and the integration of women into special operations forces. She was the inaugural winner of RAND's Innovation Award in 2015 for her work on incorporating social media in public policy analysis.

O'Mahony co-edited Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems, a volume that grew out of DARPA-funded RAND research. She has published more than a dozen articles in top academic journals examining the implications of international political and economic scrutiny on governments' decisionmaking, the causes and consequences of transnational political behavior, and modeling complex social systems.

O'Mahony teaches courses on policymaking in complex environments and international security.

Prior to joining RAND, O'Mahony was an assistant professor at the University of British Columbia, where she taught courses on international political economy and economic statecraft. A native Angelena, she received her B.A. in economics and political science from UCLA and her Ph.D. in political science from UC San Diego.

Research Focus

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Recent Projects

Chasing Multinational Interoperability: Values, Objectives and Strategies
Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms
Assessing, Monitoring, and Evaluating Army Security Cooperation: A Framework for Implementation
Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and its Modeling
Assessing Security Cooperation as a Preventive Tool

Selected Publications

Paul K. Davis, Angela O'Mahony and Jonathan Pfautz, eds., Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems, Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2019

Paul K. Davis and Angela O'Mahony, "Special Issue: Representing Social Science in National-Security-Related Modeling and Simulation," Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 14(1), 2017

Benjamin Nyblade and Angela O'Mahony, "Migrants’ Remittances and Home Country Elections: Cross-National and Sub-National Evidence," Studies in Comparative and International Development, 49(1), 2014

Benjamin Nyblade and Angela O'Mahony, "Playing with Fire: Pre-Electoral Fiscal Manipulation and the Risk of a Speculative Attack," International Studies Quarterly, 2014

Angela O'Mahony, "Political Investment: Remittances and Elections," British Journal of Political Science, 2013

Angela O'Mahony, "Engineering Good Times: Fiscal Manipulation in a Global Economy," British Journal of Political Science, 41(2), 2011

Susan D. Hyde and Angela O'Mahony, "International Scrutiny and Pre-Electoral Fiscal Manipulation in Developing Countries," Journal of Politics, 72(2), 2010

David A. Lake and Angela O'Mahony, "The Incredible Shrinking State: Explaining Change in the Territorial Size of Countries," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 48(5), 2004

Honors & Awards

Silver Medal Award and Innovation Award, RAND

Publications

Report
Prioritizing Security Cooperation with Highly Capable U.S. Allies: Framing Army-to-Army Partnerships
In this report, researchers present recommendations for enabling the U.S. Army to better prioritize and coordinate its security cooperation activities with its allies for coalition operations and engagements in third countries.
Mar 1, 2022
Report
An Analysis of Alternative Approaches to Measuring Multinational Interoperability: Early Development of the Army Interoperability Measurement System (AIMS)
Researchers conducted an analysis of alternatives of interoperability measurement systems to support the U.S. Army in achieving interoperability with partners. Researchers identified a new approach, the Army Interoperability Measurement System.
Sep 22, 2021
Journal Article
Reforming the Teaching and Conducting of Policy Studies to Deal Better with Complex Systems
The teaching and conduct of policy analysis needs updating to account better for the special challenges of social problems occurring in complex adaptive systems.
Sep 17, 2021
Research Brief
Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?
This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms
RAND researchers describe an experimental "thinking-Red" approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises to help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. It features alternative models of the adversary.
Feb 16, 2021
Report
Chasing Multinational Interoperability: Benefits, Objectives, and Strategies
National defense policies have focused on the importance of multinational interoperability to meeting U.S. defense goals. By recounting both their literature review and interviews, the authors describe potential benefits of interoperability.
Apr 8, 2020
Journal Article
Building on Social Science: Theoretic Foundations for Modelers
This chapter reviews social-scientific principles that modelers should be aware of as they attempt to describe social-behavioral systems.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Ethical and Privacy Issues in Social-Behavioral Research
We discuss key ethical and privacy issues: meaningful user notice,assuring usable and accurate access control, anonymizing data, validating algorithms to avoid harms, addressing harms, and deterring abuse.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Improving Social-Behavioral Modeling
We identify priority challenges for SB modeling. These involve dealing with complex adaptive systems and deep uncertainty, but also cultural issues such as better relating data-driven and theory-driven research and seeking more coherent models.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Panel Discussion: Moving Social-Behavioral Modeling Forward
This chapter describes panel discussion and debate relating to various multi-scale phenomena in social science, including emergence.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems
This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for diverse contexts. Recent advances have created great opportunities, but so also there are great scientific, technical, and ethical challenges.
Jun 11, 2019
Report
Pacific Engagement: Forging Tighter Connections Between Tactical Security Cooperation Activities and U.S. Strategic Goals in the Asia-Pacific Region
This report examines U.S. Army security cooperation (SC) processes in the Pacific Command area of responsibility to forge stronger links between strategic and tactical levels in the planning and execution of SC activities.
Oct 23, 2018
Report
Assessing, Monitoring, and Evaluating Army Security Cooperation: A Framework for Implementation
To help the Army increase the effectiveness of its security cooperation activities, this report examines when Army security cooperation can have the greatest impact, and how the Army should assess, monitor, and evaluate security cooperation.
Jul 24, 2018
Report
Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling
Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.
Apr 16, 2018
Report
U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.
Feb 15, 2018
Report
Supporting Persistent and Networked Special Operations Forces (SOF) Operations: Insights from Forward-Deployed SOF Personnel
RAND Corporation researchers identified three key operational challenges that forward-deployed personnel have encountered and then assessed the extent to which persistent, networked, and distributed operations can mitigate these challenges.
Oct 16, 2017
Report
The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts
This report uses an original data set of U.S. ground interventions to identify factors that determine where and when the United States is most likely to intervene militarily.
Oct 12, 2017
Report
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?
This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
The Global Landpower Network: Recommendations for Strengthening Army Engagement
The U.S. Army's global landpower network concept integrates, sustains, and advances the Army's efforts to meet U.S. national security guidance emphasizing the importance of working closely with partner nations to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.
Aug 21, 2017
Report
Assessing the Value of Regionally Aligned Forces in Army Security Cooperation: An Overview
This report highlights recent RAND Arroyo Center research on the value of the Army's regionally aligned forces to U.S. security cooperation activities, particularly those conducted in Africa.
May 10, 2017
Report
Defense Institution Building in Africa: An Assessment
This report assesses U.S. efforts in defense institution building in Africa and suggests possible improvements to planning and execution.
Jan 4, 2016
Report
National Security Implications of Virtual Currency: Examining the Potential for Non-state Actor Deployment
This report examines the feasibility for non-state actors, including terrorist and insurgent groups,to increase their political and/or economic power by deploying a virtual currency (VC) for use in regular economic transactions.
Dec 16, 2015
Report
Considerations for Integrating Women into Closed Occupations in U.S. Special Operations Forces
This report assesses challenges for unit cohesion from integrating women into special operations forces and provides analytical support for validating occupational standards for positions controlled by U.S. Special Operations Command.
Dec 16, 2015
Multimedia
SOF Partner Assessment: Introduction to Country Characteristics
Part one of a four-part video series describes the use of consistent metrics to assess countries' political attractiveness and reliability as partners in the U.S. Special Operations Command's proposed Global Special Operations Forces (SOF) Network.
Nov 13, 2014
Report
Assessing Security Cooperation as a Preventive Tool
Based on an analysis of security cooperation (SC) data and state fragility scores for 107 countries in 1991-2008, the report describes the correlation between provision of SC by the United States and a reduction in partner state fragility.
Mar 20, 2014
Report
A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling
Details a prototype computational model that seeks to explain, as a function of contributing factors, the extent of public support for insurgency and its use of terrorism. The model is believed to be reusable and suitable for composition.
May 1, 2013