Carter C. Price

@CarterCPrice on Twitter

Codirector, Center for Scalable Computing and Analysis; Research Quality Assurance Manager for the Homeland Security Research Division; Senior Mathematician

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in applied mathematics, University of Maryland; M.S. in applied mathematics, University of Maryland; B.A. in mathematics and physics, Hendrix College

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Carter C. Price (he/him) is codirector of the Center for Scalable Computing and Analysis, research quality assurance manager for the Homeland Security Research Division, and a senior mathematician at the RAND Corporation. Some of his major projects include work on the COMPARE microsimulation model to study the impact of health care reform, assessments of terrorism risk models, analyses of defense budgets, and studies of acquisition policies. He has also studied predictive policing and assessments of forest fire fighting capabilities. His project leadership experience includes studies of the macroeconomic impact of the Affordable Care Act on states, issues related to immigration fraud, trends in economic inequality, and analytic support for the Commonwealth of Virginia on COVID-19. Price has submitted testimony to the U.S. Congress and testified in front of state legislatures. His work has appeared in the Washington Post, CNN, USA Today, and the New Republic. He has a Ph.D. in applied mathematics from the University of Maryland, College Park, and a B.A. in mathematics and physics from Hendrix College.

Research Focus

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Marketplace; Pitchfork Economics; WhoWhatWhy; WRIC-TV

Commentary

Artificial Intelligence

How Should the U.S. Government Buy AI Tools?
The need for AI-readiness in federal procurement will continue to grow with the capabilities of AI tools. There are concrete steps the government could take to ensure all development and implementation of AI-related laws, regulations, and executive branch policies include appropriate considerations.
Jun 20, 2023
Homeland Security Today
Artificial Intelligence

ChatGPT's Work Lacks Transparency and That Is a Problem
In a world with Large Language Models such as ChatGPT, there is a growing need for modernized data literacy. Developers need to be more transparent about their algorithms and data sources so that people can assess the inherent sources of bias or problems with the approach.
May 8, 2023
United Press International
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

The End of the U.S. COVID-19 Public Health Emergency: Q&A with RAND Experts
We asked RAND experts to reflect on the past three years: What were the effects on the United States and around the world, what has changed, what are the most important takeaways, what was done right, and what was done wrong? At the same time, they looked ahead to what might be done to mitigate the health and geopolitical impacts of future pandemics.
May 8, 2023
The RAND Blog
Logistics Management

Keep the Vaccine Moving to Save the Most Lives
The United States is waiting to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and millions of doses wait for arms. Policymakers at the national, state, and local levels have been stockpiling the shots for many reasons. While supply ramps up, policymakers could push to deliver vaccine to people instead of freezers.
Jan 19, 2021
The RAND Blog
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Will Thanksgiving Be a National Super-Spreader Event?
Whether or not Thanksgiving will become a national super-spreader event will depend on the size of individual holiday gatherings across the country and the rate of COVID-19 cases in each community. December could be a grim month if people don't stay home on Thanksgiving.
Nov 24, 2020
The RAND Blog
Affordable Care Act

COVID-19 Could Become a Widespread Preexisting Condition in a Post-ACA World
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) is far from perfect, but its protections are particularly relevant to the COVID-19 pandemic. If the ACA is struck down, then protections for preexisting conditions will go with it. Policymakers should consider the potential implications for millions of COVID-19 survivors.
Nov 4, 2020
The Hill
Wages and Compensation

A $2.5 Trillion Question: What If Incomes Grew Like GDP Did?
Income inequality is an aspect of economics that resonates with many Americans: It feels like the rich are getting richer, while the rest are having a hard time just getting by. What would income distribution look like today if incomes grew apace with the economy?
Oct 6, 2020
ProMarket
Data Analysis

Modeling the Future of COVID-19: Q&A with RAND Experts
The phrase “flatten the curve” familiarized Americans with epidemiological models used to estimate virus transmission, cases, and potential deaths from COVID-19. But new models are needed as the country enters a different stage of the crisis.
May 26, 2020
Trends in Inequality and the World's Eight Richest Men
While Oxfam reports have done a good job of bringing attention to the problem of inequality, they may lead the public and policymakers to believe that global inequality has been rising instead of falling. Global inequality has actually been on the decline while inequality within the developed world is increasing.
Feb 10, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Wages and Compensation

College Education No Panacea for Worker Inequality Woes
The earnings gap between high school and college graduates has grown with each generation, but even a college degree does not ensure a good income. Just as the nature of jobs for high school graduates has been changing due to consolidation, trade, and technology, the quality of employment for college graduates is beginning to shift.
Aug 31, 2016
The RAND Blog
Fixing Inequality of Opportunity
Research has fueled concerns about how income inequality drives inequality of opportunity. Commonsense approaches such as improvements in education and access to quality health care have been shown to provide young people with better opportunities.
Jul 6, 2016
Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity
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Medicaid

Quick Takes: The Math of Medicaid Expansion
Expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is both contentious and complicated. RAND mathematician Carter Price has been using the COMPARE model to help those making decisions understand what their choices mean for their budgets and population health.
Oct 21, 2013
Affordable Care Act

Data Points: Why Delay of the Employer Mandate May Not Actually Mean That Much
The bottom line is that the employer mandate does not provide a large inducement for firms to change their health insurance offerings, but it does raise a substantial amount of money to pay for the ACA's coverage provisions over time.
Aug 29, 2013
The Health Care Blog
Tanker Aircraft

Firefighting Aircraft: Is Bigger Better?
An aircraft's capacity and speed largely determine the rate at which water or retardant can be applied to a fire. Very large air tankers (VLATs) certainly have the capacity to apply large amounts of fluids to a fire, but because of the distances travelled they may not be able to get a second load very quickly.
May 20, 2013
The RAND Blog
Medicaid

Governors Missing the Point on Medicaid
While a governor or legislator may disagree with Medicaid expansion for philosophical reasons, the claims that the expansion will be a burden on states' economies seem misguided given the full range of projected economic impacts on the states, writes Carter C. Price.
Apr 29, 2013
CNN
Affordable Care Act

Helping Obama—and Other Americans—Weigh Which Health Insurance Exchange to Pick
Multistate plans are most likely to appeal to out-of-state students, interstate migrants, out-of-state workers, seasonal movers (e.g., “snowbirds”), and similar groups that require improved access to health care across state lines.
Apr 1, 2013
The RAND Blog
Affordable Care Act

Modeling the Effects of the Affordable Care Act in Arkansas
The Medicaid expansion under the ACA will result in about 400,000 people newly insured in Arkansas by 2016. Of these, about 190,000 would be newly enrolled in Medicaid and the rest would be newly insured through the new insurance exchanges. The state is likely to save about $67 million for reduced uncompensated care costs for the uninsured.
Jan 7, 2013
Health Care Costs

What Happens Without Individual Mandate?
If the individual mandate were ruled unconstitutional, subsidies and the age structure of premiums should keep enough healthy people in the insurance exchanges to prevent huge spikes in premiums, write Carter C. Price and Christine Eibner.
Mar 21, 2012
USA Today

Publications

Report
Streamlining Emergency Management: Issues, Impacts, and Options for Improvement
Researchers sought ways to streamline, simplify, and strengthen the U.S. emergency management system, assessing how overlap, duplication, and fragmentation could affect implementation and outcomes. They propose options and discuss trade-offs of each.
Jun 24, 2022
Brochure
Roadmap of Scalable Analytic Methods
Scalable analytic methods refers to a collection of data-intensive methods, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data, and data science. This infographic illustrates how these methods relate to traditional analytical approaches.
Feb 9, 2022
Report
Temporary Safety-Net Policies and Pandemic-Related Insurance Loss in New York State
Researchers assess the importance of temporary provisions relative to long-standing policies in stabilizing health insurance enrollment in New York state despite heavy job loss during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
Nov 12, 2021
Research Brief
A New Approach to Measuring Income Inequality Over Recent Decades
RAND researchers identified a new, intuitive way to measure income inequality and compare income growth over time.
Apr 29, 2021
Research Brief
10Plan, How Would It Affect Health Care Spending by Consumers and the Federal Government
The 10Plan is a self-pay plan for individuals currently uninsured or covered by a private nongroup health insurance plan. The authors built a microsimulation model to estimate health care spending under both the status quo and the 10Plan.
Feb 25, 2021
Report
Analysis of the 10Plan: A Self-Pay System Designed to Minimize the Burden of Health Care Costs
The 10Plan is a self-pay plan for individuals currently uninsured or covered by a private nongroup health insurance plan. The authors built a microsimulation model to estimate health care spending under both the status quo and the 10Plan.
Jan 25, 2021
Report
A Model of the Spread of the COVID-19 Pandemic During a Hurricane in Virginia
The threat of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic increases the complexity of risk management decisions during the hurricane season. This report examines the implications that a hurricane during the pandemic would have for Virginia.
Dec 9, 2020
Draft
Trends in Income From 1975 to 2018
Seeks to quantify the scale of income gap from 1975 to 2018 created by rising inequality compared to a counterfactual in which growth was shared more broadly.
Sep 14, 2020
Report
A Framework for Assessing Models of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Inform Policymaking in Virginia
The authors of this report reviewed available models and the relevant literature to produce a framework for assessing a model's appropriateness for policymakers responding to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Jul 8, 2020
Report
U.S. Military Capabilities and Forces for a Dangerous World: Rethinking the U.S. Approach to Force Planning
This report evaluates the capabilities of current and programmed U.S. forces to meet the demands of future conflicts and recommends alternative forces that appear to be better suited than today's forces to meeting those demands.
Nov 28, 2018
Report
The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States
This report synthesizes the available scientific evidence on the effects of various firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes.
Mar 2, 2018
Report
Financing Health Care in Oregon: Four Policy Options
This presentation describes four options for financing health care for residents of the state of Oregon and compares the projected impacts and feasibility of each option.
May 17, 2017
Report
A Comprehensive Assessment of Four Options for Financing Health Care Delivery in Oregon
This report compares the impacts and feasibility of four options for financing health care in Oregon: two state-based plans that would ensure coverage for all residents, a state-sponsored plan offered in Oregon's nongroup market, and the status quo.
Jan 19, 2017
Research Brief
Oregon's Options to Overhaul Health Care Financing: Health Care Reform 2.0?
This analysis of three options to reform health care payment in Oregon (two state-based plans that would ensure coverage for all state residents and a state-sponsored plan offered in Oregon's nongroup market) found benefits and trade-offs for each.
Jan 19, 2017
Report
Modeling Dr. Dynasaur 2.0 Coverage and Finance Proposals: Effects of the Expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur Program to All Individuals Through Age 25
The authors assessed an expansion of Vermont's Dr. Dynasaur program that would cover all residents through age 25. The current program provides health coverage for children ages 0-18 with family incomes below 317 percent of the federal poverty level.
Jan 18, 2017
Report
Inequality and Opportunity: The Relationship Between Income Inequality and Intergenerational Transmission of Income
This report aims to understand the extent to which inequalities in opportunity and outcomes are related -- and the mechanisms that drive that relationship -- to help evaluate which policies have the most potential to level the playing field.
May 23, 2016
Report
Evaluating the Impact of Whole-Body Vibration (WBV) on Fatigue and the Implications for Driver Safety
Summarizes findings from a review of the literature on whole-body vibration (WBV) and fatigue, in addition to looking at study designs and methodology for providing more rigorous investigations of the impact of WBV on fatigue and driver safety.
Oct 22, 2015
Report
Management Perspectives Pertaining to Root Cause Analyses of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches, Volume 6: Contractor Motivations and Anticipating Breaches
The authors analyze what motivates defense contractors to determine if better incentives exist to the ones now used, and analyze major defense acquisition programs to see if it is possible to identify programs that might incur a Nunn-McCurdy breach.
Oct 8, 2014
Infographic
How the Great State of Arkansas May Fare Under the Affordable Care Act
This infographic presents findings from a RAND analysis of the economic and other effects of the Affordable Care Act on the state of Arkansas.
May 21, 2014
Infographic
How the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania May Fare Under the Affordable Care Act
This infographic presents findings from a RAND analysis of the economic and other effects of Medicaid expansion on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
May 21, 2014
Report
U.S. Navy Employment Options for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs)
Assesses in what ways and to what degree unmanned surface vehicles are suitable for supporting U.S. Navy missions and functions.
Nov 1, 2013
Research Brief
Predictive Policing: Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement
Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to prevent crime or solve past crimes. A RAND study assessed some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches, offering recommendations for police and developers.
Oct 14, 2013
Report
Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations
Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to help prevent crime, solve past crimes, or identify potential offenders and victims. This guide provides assessments of some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches.
Sep 25, 2013
Report
The Affordable Care Act and Health Insurance Markets: Simulating the Effects of Regulation
The authors estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act on health insurance enrollment and premiums for ten states and for the nation overall, with a focus on outcomes in the nongroup and small group markets.
Aug 29, 2013
Report
Delaying the Employer Mandate: Small Change in the Short Term, Big Cost in the Long Run
RAND analysts employed the COMPARE microsimulation model to help policymakers understand the implications of the one-year delay in the Affordable Care Act's penalty on employers that do not offer affordable health insurance coverage.
Aug 8, 2013
Report
The Budgetary Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Pennsylvania: An Expansion on Previous Work
This addendum to a spring 2013 analysis assessing the budget effects of the expansion of Medicaid on the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania examines the sensitivity of that report's findings to alternative assumptions about the state budgetary effects.
Jun 24, 2013
Testimony
Expanding Medicaid Is the Best Financial Option for States
Testimony presented before the House Energy and Commerce Committee, Subcommittee on Health June 12, 2013.
Jun 12, 2013
Research Brief
The Math of State Medicaid Expansion
Summarizes a RAND analysis of how opting out of Medicaid expansion would affect insurance coverage and spending and whether alternative policy options -- such as partial Medicaid expansion -- could cover as many people at lower costs to states.
Jun 7, 2013
Journal Article
For States That Opt Out of Medicaid Expansion: 3.6 Million Fewer Insured and $8.4 Billion Less in Federal Payments
The authors conclude that in terms of coverage, cost, and federal payments, states would do best to expand Medicaid.
Jun 1, 2013
Report
The Economic Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Pennsylvania
The Affordable Care Act is a substantial reform of the U.S. health care insurance system. RAND researchers assessed the act’s potential economic effects on Pennsylvania, factoring in whether the state includes an expansion of Medicaid.
Mar 28, 2013
Report
A Two-Step Procedure to Estimate Participation and Premiums in Multistate Health Plans
The authors identified and characterized population groups that would likely be interested in enrolling in the multistate plans established by the Affordable Care Act and developed a methodology to project participation and estimate premiums.
Mar 20, 2013
Report
The Economic Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Arkansas
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) will increase coverage through the expansion of Medicaid and the creation of a Health Insurance Exchange with subsidies. RAND researchers analyzed the ACA’s economic impact on the state of Arkansas.
Jan 3, 2013
Report
Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA's Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods
RAND evaluated a terrorism risk modeling tool developed by the Transportation Security Administration and Boeing to help guide program planning for aviation security.
Nov 26, 2012
Report
Air Attack Against Wildfires: Understanding U.S. Forest Service Requirements for Large Aircraft
A RAND study sought to help the U.S. Forest Service determine the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires, including the cost of large fires and aircraft costs.
Jul 30, 2012
Research Brief
Identifying a Cost-Effective Aviation Fleet for the U.S. Forest Service
This brief provides an overview of a RAND study to support the U.S. Forest Service in determining the composition of a fleet of airtankers, scoopers, and helicopters that would minimize the total social costs of wildfires.
Jul 30, 2012
Report
The Effect of the Affordable Care Act on Enrollment and Premiums, With and Without the Individual Mandate
This analysis used a RAND microsimulation model to predict the effects of a possible Supreme Court decision invalidating the individual mandate provision in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and keeping the rest of the law intact.
Feb 16, 2012
Research Brief
How Would Eliminating the Individual Mandate Affect Health Coverage and Premium Costs?
An analysis of the effects of implementing the Affordable Care Act without an individual mandate found that over 12 million people who would have otherwise signed up for coverage will be uninsured and premium prices will increase by 2.4 percent.
Feb 16, 2012
Journal Article
Small Firms' Actions in Two Areas, and Exchange Premium and Enrollment Impact
An analysis of two rules that allow small businesses to avoid participating in health reform concludes they will have only a minor impact because relatively few businesses are likely to take advantage of the options.
2012
Report
Where Might the U.S. Army Budget Go, and How Might It Get There?
Historic trends in the U.S. Army's largest budget accounts provide context for current decisions on future spending, especially in light of the Army's diminishing role in Iraq and Afghanistan over the coming decade.
Nov 15, 2011
Report
Employer Self-Insurance Decisions and the Implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act as Modified by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (ACA)
Implications of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (as Modified by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act) for small firms' decisions to offer self-insured health plans and consequences of self-insurance for enrollees.
May 25, 2011
Report
Changing Aircraft Carrier Procurement Schedules: Effects That a Five-Year Procurement Cycle Would Have on Cost, Availability, and Shipyard Manpower and Workload
Proposed changes to the Navy's aircraft carrier acquisition program will have little impact in the short term. Later, the force structure and the probability of meeting deployment goals shrink, along with the Navy's ability to grow the fleet.
Mar 21, 2011
Research Brief
How Will the Affordable Care Act Affect Employee Health Coverage at Small Businesses?
Finds that the Affordable Care Act will increase the percentage of employers that offer health coverage to workers: from 57 percent to 80 percent for firms with 50 or fewer workers, and from 90 percent to 98 percent for firms with 51 to 100 workers.
Sep 8, 2010
Report
Establishing State Health Insurance Exchanges: Implications for Health Insurance Enrollment, Spending, and Small Businesses
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will increase insurance offer rates at small businesses. By 2016, rates would increase from 53 to 77 percent at firms with ten or fewer workers and from 71 to 90 percent at firms with 11 to 25 workers.
Aug 11, 2010
Report
Grandfathering in the Small Group Market Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act: Effects on Offer Rates, Premiums, and Coverage
To avoid changes in current health coverage, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act exempts existing plans from some regulations. These exemptions may lead to higher employer-sponsored insurance enrollment and lower government spending.
Jun 2, 2010
Research Brief
RAND COMPARE Analysis of President Obama's Proposal for Health Reform
Compares President Obama's Proposal for Health Reform, the U.S. House and Senate health care reform bills, and the status quo on changes in number of uninsured and government and national costs, as estimated by the RAND COMPARE microsimulation model.
Mar 3, 2010
Research Brief
Coverage, Spending, and Consumer Financial Risk: How Do the Recent House and Senate Health Care Bills Compare?
Compares how two health care reform bills, HR. 3962 and H.R. 3590, passed by the U.S. House and Senate, respectively, in late 2009 compare on a variety of projections made using the RAND COMPARE microsimulation model.
Feb 12, 2010
Research Brief
Analysis of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590)
Using the COMPARE microsimulation model, estimates the effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590) on the number of uninsured, the costs to the federal government and the nation, and consumers' health care spending.
Feb 11, 2010
Research Brief
Analysis of the Affordable Health Care for America Act (H.R. 3962)
Using the COMPARE microsimulation model, estimates proposed health care reform legislation's effects on the number of uninsured, the costs to the federal government and the nation, revenues from penalty payments, and consumers' health care spending.
Jan 7, 2010

Multimedia

1:10

Income Distribution in the United States: How It’s Changed Since the 1970s
Nov 11, 2020
30:13

Epidemiological Models and COVID-19
May 21, 2020
50:44

The State of the American Worker
Sep 12, 2017
2:06

The Math of State Medicaid Expansion
Jul 1, 2013