Miranda Priebe

@MirandaPriebe on Twitter

Director, Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy; Senior Political Scientist

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; M.P.A. in international relations, Princeton University; S.B. in physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; S.B. in political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Miranda Priebe is director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

Her work at RAND has focused on grand strategy, the future of the international order, effects of U.S. forward presence, military doctrine, history of U.S. military policy, distributed air operations, and multi-domain command and control. She has also conducted research on deterrence, reassurance, threat perceptions, rising powers, alliance politics, and U.S. defense budgets. Priebe received a Ph.D. in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She also received a Master of Public Affairs degree from Princeton University’s Woodrow Wilson School and S.B. degrees in physics and political science from MIT.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

Priebe, Miranda, Bryan Rooney, Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, Jeffrey Martini, and Stephanie Pezard, Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint, RAND Corporation (RR-A739-1), 2021

Priebe, Miranda, Bryan Rooney, Caitlin McCulloch, and Zachary Burdette, Do Alliances and Partnerships Entangle the United States in Conflict?RAND Corporation (RR-A739-3), 2021

Priebe, Miranda, Angela O'Mahony, Bryan Frederick, Alyssa Demus, Bonny Lin, Michelle Grisé, Derek Eaton, and Abby Doll, Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking, RAND Corporation (RR-A448-1), 2021

Binnendijk, Anika, Miranda Priebe, An Attack Against Them All? Drivers of Decisions to Contribute to NATO Collective Defense, RAND Corporation (RR-2964-OSD), 2019

Rooney, Bryan, Grant Johnson, and Miranda Priebe, How Does Defense Spending Affect Economic Growth?RAND Corporation (RR-A739-2), 2021

O'Mahony, Angela, Miranda Priebe, Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Matthew Lane, Trevor Johnston, Thomas S. Szayna, Jakub P. Hlavka, Stephen Watts, and Matthew Povlock, U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict, RAND Corporation (RR-1906-A), 2018

Mazarr, Michael J., Miranda Priebe, Andrew Radin, and Astrid Stuth Cevallos, Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order, RAND Corporation (RR-2011), 2017

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Council on Foreign Relations; Government Matters; National Public Radio

Commentary

Russia

U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Q&A with Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick
Priebe and Frederick discuss the implications of the findings in their new report, Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach.
May 17, 2023
The RAND Blog
Geopolitical Strategic Competition

Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick in Conversation
Though not a great power war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused many to wonder what a true great power war in Europe or the Indo-Pacific would look like, and especially what kind of world would emerge afterwards. Two RAND researchers discuss how their recent report sheds light on this issue.
May 9, 2023
The RAND Blog
Ukraine

Ukraine Should Not Close Off Routes to the Negotiating Table
Ukraine and Russia will probably eventually return to the table—perhaps not this month or even this year—and therefore it is important to debate ideas for how to get there, not to dismiss them.
Mar 7, 2023
Financial Times
Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Ukraine

Planning Now for a Negotiated Outcome in Ukraine
The United States should consider keeping open lines of communication with Russia. While it may not lead to peace in Ukraine any time soon, it could help mitigate the risks of dramatic escalation and indefinite war.
Oct 28, 2022
Foreign Affairs
Critical Infrastructure Protection

U.S. Military Power Comes from More Than Just the Defense Budget
With U.S. domestic challenges ranging from the ongoing pandemic to long-delayed infrastructure investments, now is a good time to consider spending that provides both domestic and national security benefits. Infrastructure spending offers one such example.
May 10, 2021
Defense News
Military Budgets and Defense Spending

Be Wary of Proposals for Less Defense Budget Transparency
The Pentagon has asked Congress to end the requirement that it make public an unclassified version of the Future Years Defense Program—the department's budget plans for at least the next five years. Although some information needs to be classified, the value of transparency for public debate and oversight in a democracy outweighs the marginal intelligence gains to U.S. adversaries.
Apr 29, 2020
Breaking Defense

Publications

Report
Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
May 17, 2023
Research Brief
What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach
Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.
May 17, 2023
Research Brief
The Aftermath of a Great Power War
RAND researchers drew on historical great power wars to develop four scenarios illustrating how hypothetical wars between the United States and either China or Russia could produce unanticipated consequences — even for the state that is victorious.
May 9, 2023
Report
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 1, Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations
RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.
May 9, 2023
Report
Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
This Perspective identifies possible trajectories of the Russia-Ukraine war, how they would affect U.S. interests, and what the United States could do to influence the course of the conflict.
Jan 25, 2023
Report
Does the U.S. Economy Benefit from U.S. Alliances and Forward Military Presence?
The authors evaluate claims about the potential economic benefits of U.S. military engagement and find evidence that U.S. alliances increase bilateral trade in manufactured goods, which has a modest but positive effect on overall U.S. economic welfare.
Sep 1, 2022
Report
The Limits of Restraint: The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
RAND researchers propose possible warfighting scenarios in the Asia-Pacific region that could guide defense planning if the United States adopted a grand strategy of restraint. Researchers also describe how U.S. posture in the region would change.
Mar 31, 2022
Report
Do Alliances and Partnerships Entangle the United States in Conflict?
In this report, RAND researchers assess the evidence for claims that U.S. security relationships cause the United States to adopt its partners' interests, incentivize partners to behave recklessly, and risk dragging the United States into conflict.
Nov 22, 2021
Report
Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality
What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.
Aug 16, 2021
Research Brief
Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?
This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
How Does Defense Spending Affect Economic Growth?
The authors consider the effect on economic growth if the United States were to reallocate funds from defense to infrastructure spending, change defense spending and apply the difference to public debt, or increase taxes to finance defense spending.
May 7, 2021
Report
Implementing Restraint: Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint
Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors identify unanswered questions about such a strategy.
Jan 21, 2021
Research Brief
Multiple Dilemmas for the Joint Force: Joint All-Domain Command and Control
The authors examine potential command and control impediments to multidomain operations and propose alternative models for joint all-domain command and control.
Dec 3, 2020
Report
Multiple Dilemmas: Challenges and Options for All-Domain Command and Control
The authors examine potential command-and-control impediments to multidomain operations and propose alternative models for joint all-domain command and control.
Dec 3, 2020
Report
The Evolution of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present, Volume III: Another World War and Cold War
The authors show that there is no such thing as a "traditional" U.S. military policy. Rather, the laws that authorize, empower, and govern the U.S. armed forces emerged from long-standing debates and legislative compromises between 1903 and 1940.
Jun 23, 2020
Report
The Evolution of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present, Volume IV: The Total Force Policy Era, 1970–2015
The authors show that there is no such thing as a "traditional" U.S. military policy. Rather, the laws that authorize, empower, and govern the U.S. armed forces emerged from long-standing debates and legislative compromises between 1903 and 1940.
Jun 23, 2020
Report
An Attack Against Them All? Drivers of Decisions to Contribute to NATO Collective Defense
This report provides an analytical framework for understanding allies' willingness to contribute to a military response to Russian attacks on a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member.
Aug 29, 2019
Report
Distributed Operations in a Contested Environment: Implications for USAF Force Presentation
This report's authors identify capabilities the Air Force needs to carry out distributed operations in a contested environment. They then assess whether the current force presentation model can provide such capabilities.
Jul 17, 2019
Report
Promoting Joint Warfighting Proficiency: The Role of Doctrine in Preparing Airmen for Joint Operations
This report describes the differences and similarities between Air Force and joint doctrine and identifies ways to increase doctrinal alignment. It also evaluates the potential role of doctrine in increasing airmen's joint warfighting proficiency.
Aug 16, 2018
Report
U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.
Feb 15, 2018
Report
Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements
RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.
Oct 10, 2017
Report
Measuring the Health of the Liberal International Order
As part of a larger study on the future of the post-World War II liberal international order, RAND researchers analyze the health of the existing order and offer implications for future U.S. policy.
Sep 5, 2017
Report
Alternative Options for U.S. Policy Toward the International Order
This report examines options for future U.S. policies regarding international economic institutions, bilateral and regional security organizations, and liberal political norms.
Aug 28, 2017
Report
Building a Sustainable International Order: Summary of the First Workshop in the International Order Project Series
This conference summary reflects key insights from a January 2016 workshop discussion that informed the next stages of a project titled "Building a Sustainable International Order."
Oct 19, 2016
Report
Understanding the Current International Order
RAND researchers examine the international order in effect since World War II, including the mechanisms by which the order affects state behavior, the engines that drive states to participate, and the U.S. approach to the order since 1945.
Oct 19, 2016
Report
Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: Decisive War, Elusive Peace
Summarizes a classified five-volume report on the planning and execution of operations in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM through June 2004. Recommends changes to Army plans, operational concepts, doctrine, and Title 10 functions.
Jan 4, 2016