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U.S.-China Competition in the Indo-Pacific
Nov 12, 2020
One of the United States' key partners in long-term strategic competition with China is India, which has the world's second-largest active-duty armed forces and is already a peer or near-peer competitor of China across a range of military capabilities. However, U.S. planners must be keenly aware of the constraints on both India's willingness and capacity to forge a partnership based on strategic competition with China.
India
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In long-term strategic competition with China, how effectively the United States works with allies and partners will be critical to determining U.S. success. This report examines the potential benefits of, and potential impediments to, partnering more closely with India. India is already a peer or near-peer competitor of China across a range of military capabilities, and India's self-defined core national security interests are in relatively close harmony with those of the United States. However, U.S. planners must be keenly aware of the constraints on both India's willingness and capacity to forge a partnership based on strategic competition with China. These include persistent aversion to any partnership that might be characterized as "alignment," even after a major 2020 border clash with China; significant distrust of U.S. commitment and intentions; a highly risk-averse structure for the making and implementing of security policy, particularly vis-à-vis China; economic linkages with China; underfunding of basic military needs; and a lack of military capability and interoperability sufficient for frictionless interaction with U.S. forces. India will likely remain a key U.S. partner, but such challenges should moderate expectations about the pace for increased engagement.
Chapter One
Introduction: India in the Context of U.S.-China Competition
Chapter Two
India's Geostrategic Importance, Institutional Outlook, and Desire for "Strategic Autonomy" in Diplomatic and Political Relations
Chapter Three
India's Economic Relationship with China, and Country-by-Country Relationship Sketches
Chapter Four
India's Defense Calculus vis-à-vis China
Chapter Five
Assessment and Outlook
Chapter Six
Options for the United States, U.S. Department of Defense, and U.S. Air Force
Appendix A
Methodology for Project Framework
Appendix B
Overview of India's Military
The research described in this report was sponsored by Brig Gen Michael P. Winkler (PACAF/A5/8) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
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