As outer space becomes more congested, contested, and competitive, the risks to space safety, security, and sustainability heighten. Against this backdrop, the authors used a review of relevant literature and official documents, as well as interviews and workshops with subject-matter experts, to identify lessons from past approaches to international traffic management and offer recommendations to make progress in space traffic management.

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International Space Traffic Management

Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability

by Bruce McClintock, Douglas C. Ligor, Dan McCormick, Marissa Herron, Kotryna Jukneviciute, Thomas Van Bibber, Katie Feistel, Akhil Rao, Adi Rao, Taylor Grosso, et al.

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Research Questions

  1. Which attributes of an STM system would maximize its potential effectiveness?
  2. What lessons can be learned from the evolution and operation of international governance in other domains and areas?
  3. What actions are necessary to kick start and implement such a system?

As outer space becomes more congested, contested, and competitive, the risks to space safety, security, and sustainability heighten. Against this backdrop, the authors used a review of relevant literature and official documents, as well as interviews and workshops with subject-matter experts, to identify possible lessons for future space traffic management (STM) from past approaches to international traffic management and common resource management and offer recommendations to make progress in STM.

Lessons from the history of the maritime and air domains and the development and implementation of international organizations within those domains help provide a pathway for the development of an international space traffic management organization (ISTMO). An ISTMO will need to achieve sufficient legitimacy and operational power to effectively manage the space domain.

Key Findings

  • The international community is at a tipping point for STM. Research strongly indicates that the space domain's safety and sustainability are under clear and present threat from debris and congestion. Because of this threat and because the space domain involves international actors (or entities under the jurisdiction and control of states), an international organization is needed to conduct STM. The authors refer to such an organization as an international space traffic management organization (ISTMO).
  • There is sufficient research, which has been conducted by government, nonstate, and private entities, to justify the creation of an ISTMO.
  • An ISTMO must have sufficient authority and jurisdiction and must ensure that the technical coordination and collaboration between states, industry, and other stakeholders necessary for successful STM governance and operations occur.
  • Without sufficient authority, jurisdiction, and implementation of coordination and collaboration, an ISTMO might lack the legitimacy to endure and conduct effective STM.
  • An ISTMO must also be able to facilitate and incorporate bottom-up development of STM rules and activities that include governments, industry, and nongovernmental organizations.
  • To accomplish these objectives, an ISTMO will need to be funded, staffed, and resourced to maintain the necessary level of expertise and a dynamic operational tempo.

Recommendations

  • Ensure that the international community agrees that the creation of an ISTMO is the best course of action. To accomplish this, the authors recommend that spacefaring and nonspacefaring states call for an ISTMO convention to be held at the United Nations (UN).
  • Ensure that this convention focuses on the current body of research that supports the creation of an ISTMO drawing from the analogous aspects and lessons learned from other domains, particularly the maritime and air domains.
  • Ensure both the gathering of international experts on STM and the continued growth of institutional expertise on STM. This expertise is needed to ensure that both a convention and any nascent organization it might create are equipped to be legitimate, effective, and long-standing.
  • Conduct additional research to develop a source of sustainable and equitable funding for the ISTMO. Both traditional funding mechanisms common to the UN system and some nontraditional options could be used. Although these nontraditional options, such as orbital-use fees or a tradeable bond system, are underdeveloped, they offer further areas of research and discussion for space domain stakeholders to consider.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Coordination in the Maritime Domain

  • Chapter Three

    Coordination in the Air Domain

  • Chapter Four

    Governance in Other Domains

  • Chapter Five

    Insights and Recommendations

  • Appendix

    Workshop Findings

Research conducted by

The research reported here was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).

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