Scott Savitz

Senior Engineer

Washington Office

Education

B.S. in chemical engineering, Yale University; M.S. in chemical engineering, University of Pennsylvania; Ph.D. in chemical engineering, University of Pennsylvania

One Page Bio

Overview

Scott Savitz is a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation. Much of his research focuses on how to improve the effectiveness and resilience of operational forces through the use of new technologies and modified tactics. He has developed numerous models and simulations in support of such analyses.

Recently, he has led analytical efforts to assess the impact of non-lethal weapons, military capability gaps in the Arctic, and how U.S., Brazilian, Australian, and Japanese services can invest in emerging technologies. Savitz has also led analyses on infrastructure requirements for testing autonomous systems, intelligence on threats to U.S. ports, improving maritime domain awareness, measuring the impact of efforts to counter hostile networks, improving data integration, and how to prepare for future Arctic operations. Earlier studies that he led focused on how the Navy can effectively use uncrewed surface vehicles, how to counter naval mine threats, and how the Coast Guard can make more informed asset-allocation decisions. At RAND, he has also analyzed historical insights regarding warship design, reducing airbase vulnerability, trapping fleets in port, tunnel warfare, and many other subjects.

Previously, Savitz provided on-site analytical support for the Navy's mine warfare command and the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command. He has led exercise-observation teams around the globe, and supported the Navy in Bahrain from 2001-2003, addressing counter-terrorism, political-military, and chemical/biological/radiological defense issues.

Savitz earned his bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from Yale University, as well as a master's degree and Ph.D. in the same field from the University of Pennsylvania.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Assessing the impact of non-lethal weapons
How the U.S. Coast Guard can use gaming to inform decisions
How Japan can use emerging technologies to address its future security environment
How Brazil's Navy can effectively employ uncrewed vehicles
How the Royal Australian Navy can further develop its modeling and simulation capabilities

Selected Publications

Scott Savitz, "Deceive the Enemy with Emerging Technologies," Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, 147(2), 2021

Hornung, Jeffrey W., Scott Savitz, Jonathan Balk, Samantha McBirney, Liam McLane, and Victoria M. Smith, Preparing Japan's Multi-Domain Defense Force for the Future Battlespace Using Emerging Technologies, RAND Corporation (PE-A1157-1), 2021

Scott Savitz, "Rethink Mine Countermeasures," Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, 143(7), 2017

Savitz, Scott, Aaron C. Davenport, and Michelle D. Ziegler, The Marine Transportation System, Autonomous Technology, and Implications for the U.S. Coast Guard, RAND Corporation (PE-359-DHS), 2020

Savitz, Scott, Miriam Matthews, and Sarah Weilant, Assessing Impact to Inform Decisions: A Toolkit on Measures for Policymakers, RAND Corporation (TL-263-OSD), 2017

Tingstad, Abbie, Scott Savitz, Kristin Van Abel, Dulani Woods, Katherine Anania, Michelle D. Ziegler, Aaron C. Davenport, and Katherine Costello, Identifying Potential Gaps in U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Capabilities, RAND Corporation (RR-2310-DHS), 2018

Savitz, Scott, Irv Blickstein, Peter Buryk, Robert W. Button, Paul DeLuca, James Dryden, Jason Mastbaum, Jan Osburg, Phillip Padilla, Amy Potter, Carter C. Price, Lloyd Thrall, Susan K. Woodward, Roland J. Yardley, and John Yurchak, U.S. Navy Employment Options for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs), RAND Corporation (RR-384), 2013

Scott Savitz, "Psychology and the Mined: A Case Study in Psychological Barriers to the Use of Statistical Analysis," Military Operations Research, 13(1), 2008

Honors & Awards

Silver Medal for analysis, The RAND Corporation

Languages

Spanish, plus some Portuguese, Japanese, Italian, and Chinese

Commentary

Unmanned Maritime Vessels

Revive the Ram
In the face of aggressive maneuvers by Chinese vessels, the U.S. Navy can brandish ramming USVs as a capability to inhibit threats while limiting the risk of escalation. These relatively simple, inexpensive vehicles could be used alongside a variety of nonlethal weapons to manage confrontations, giving commanders more options as they attempt to prevent China from dominating the seas.
Jun 22, 2023
RealClearDefense
Taiwan

Waiting to Impale: Defending Taiwan with Artificial Reefs
Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is arguably the most important defense problem of the next few decades. Artificial reefs could help to deter China simply by waiting to impale any potential invasion force.
May 10, 2023
RealClearDefense
Military Technology

Coast Guard Leans Forward in New UxS Strategy but Faces Significant Challenges
The rise of unmanned systems creates a challenging landscape for the U.S. Coast Guard as it endeavors to conduct its diverse missions in the future. To address emerging technologies and prepare for forthcoming threats, the service recently released a strategic plan.
May 3, 2023
The RAND Blog
China

As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'
When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative.
Apr 11, 2023
Defense Opinion
Ukraine

Why Blockading Rather Than Retaking Crimea Might Be Kyiv's Best Option
Ukraine may lack the military capability to retake Crimea from Russia. But Kyiv might still achieve some of its key objectives by blockading the peninsula. New technology may ease this task.
Apr 10, 2023
The Moscow Times
Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Military Ships and Naval Vessels

How Big of a Fleet? A Look at the U.S. Navy's Size and Readiness Needs
Congress is trying to nudge the Navy to expand the size of the fleet. But without comparable levels of funding for personnel, maintenance, technology upgrades, logistics and other support functions, a larger fleet could come at the cost of readiness.
Jan 11, 2023
Defense News
Unmanned Maritime Vessels

Could Taiwan Defend with Uncrewed Surface Vessels?
Ukraine has demonstrated the ability of explosive uncrewed surface vessels to target ships. These weapons could play a role in preventing Chinese forces from successfully invading Taiwan in potential future scenarios.
Jan 9, 2023
RealClearDefense
Military Equipment

Nonlethal Weapons Can Play a Growing Role in U.S. Defense
Overcoming the web of factors inhibiting the use of nonlethal weapons will take sustained effort over time. But it can have a powerful impact on America's ability to achieve U.S. national security goals while avoiding unnecessary conflict.
Dec 12, 2022
United Press International
Naval Warfare

The Drifting Menace
The drifting mine threat is not going away: they are simple, effective weapons that are easily made and deployed even by actors with limited naval capabilities. A holistic approach to tactics, enforcement, and technology development could help counter the threat and maintain future freedom of the seas.
Nov 16, 2022
RealClearDefense
Unmanned Maritime Vessels

The Age of Uncrewed Surface Vessels
A new age of naval warfare has been inaugurated in the Black Sea, defined by an emerging weapon. Uncrewed surface vessels could become a centerpiece of naval warfare in the coming decades, one that navies may ignore at their peril.
Nov 15, 2022
The RAND Blog
Military Strategy

Beware the Explosive Vessels
The initial explosion that damaged the Kerch Strait Bridge may have come from an uncrewed surface vehicle (USV). If it was indeed caused by a USV, it could be a portent of future warfare. Military and homeland security authorities may need to anticipate the potential use of USVs by adversaries or terrorists.
Oct 20, 2022
RealClearDefense
Security Cooperation

Should Greenland and Denmark Become Part of NORAD?
As tensions with Russia rise to levels not seen since the Cold War, NORAD may need to detect and counter increasing numbers of aerial intrusions. One way to strengthen NORAD's capabilities: Invite Greenland and Denmark to join the command.
Sep 16, 2022
Breaking Defense
Military Budgets and Defense Spending

Why It Makes Sense to Keep Mine-Hunting Dolphins on the Navy's Payroll
Mine-hunting dolphins—none of whom have ever been harmed by a mine—make the seas safer for naval ships and other vessels. Yet budget cuts could spell the end of the program that trains them.
Jul 22, 2022
Los Angeles Times
Military Equipment

Revealing the Impact of Non-Lethal Weapons
Non-lethal weapons can be useful to U.S. military forces in a variety of contexts, but the Pentagon faces a challenge in ensuring their appropriate use and evaluating the potential effects of their deployment.
Jun 15, 2022
RealClearDefense
Arctic Region

U.S. Military May Need to Invest More in Arctic Capabilities
Operating in the Arctic is inherently expensive. Despite this, it could be critical that the United States make the necessary investments to ensure a robust ability to operate in the Arctic to withstand Russian challenges there.
Feb 10, 2022
United Press International
United States Coast Guard

Analytical Gaming Could Help the U.S. Coast Guard Address Key Challenges
By gradually expanding its gaming efforts, the U.S. Coast Guard might improve both the quality of its decisions and the strength of its relationships, making the service ever more capable as it navigates the challenges of the 21st century.
Nov 8, 2021
RealClearDefense
Afghanistan

Lessons from Afghanistan
The British invaded Afghanistan multiple times from 1839 to 1919. These wars offer wider context for understanding America's intervention in that same nation—and its ultimate failure.
Sep 3, 2021
RealClearDefense
Military Strategy

Applying Machiavellian Discourses to the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq
After 20 years of war without victory in both Afghanistan and Iraq, it is time to derive key lessons from both conflicts to avoid repeating the same mistakes. Niccolò Machiavelli, whose insights on statecraft have endured for five centuries, is a valuable guide in analyzing those lessons.
Aug 9, 2021
RealClearDefense
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Mind the Gap
For decades, NATO forces have used nearby bases to keep tabs on Russian submarines, surface ships, and aircraft transiting the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap. Strong independence movements in Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and Scotland could soon jeopardize this position.
Jul 15, 2021
Defense One
Military Strategy

The Suez Grounding Was an Accident. The Next Blocked Chokepoint Might Not Be
The recent spectacle of a hulking container ship wedged into the Suez Canal is a reminder of how vulnerable maritime transportation is to blocked chokepoints. The fragility of maritime lifelines may encourage the use of this tactic in future conflict.
Mar 30, 2021
Defense One
Military Strategy

Small States Can Use Naval Mines and Unmanned Vehicles to Deter Maritime Aggression
Small coastal nations face potential threats from larger, more powerful adversaries. Their coastlines represent vulnerabilities that a foe may seek to exploit. But these nations can hinder and deter potential aggressors by using less expensive systems, such as naval mines and unmanned vehicles.
Jul 16, 2018
RealClearDefense
Border and Port Security

A Changing Cuba May Create Risks for Maritime Border Security
A changing Cuba may contribute to less secure maritime borders for the United States. The U.S. should plan accordingly to stop mass movements of both drugs and people.
Nov 5, 2016
U.S. News and World Report
United States Navy

Egypt's Suez Canal: An Attenuated Lifeline
The U.S. Navy has enjoyed the luxury of being able to transit the Suez Canal without hindrance for decades. However, the risk of losing access — perhaps quickly and unexpectedly — should inform Navy strategic and operational planning.
Sep 14, 2016
The National Interest
Syria

Will Syria's Civil War Turn Out Like Spain's Did?
The similarities between the Syrian and Spanish civil wars, including foreign involvement and the level of brutality against civilians and captives, suggest that the Syrian war, like the Spanish one before it, could potentially foreshadow future conflicts.
Dec 2, 2015
The Washington Post
Chemical Weapons and Warfare

ISIS Plus Chemical Weapons Does Not Equal Apocalypse
The renewed use of chemical weapons on the battlefields of Iraq and Syria is a dangerous regional phenomenon, not an imminent global threat.
Sep 11, 2015
Newsweek
Crime

El Chapo's Prison Escape Should Come as No Surprise
Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzman's Sinaloa Cartel and similar criminal organizations have long used tunnels to literally undermine security along the U.S.-Mexico border.
Jul 24, 2015
Fox News Channel
Warfare and Military Operations

The Gaza Conflict: Tunnel Warfare's Latest Chapter
Despite its long history as an effective combat tool, tunneling rarely garners much attention, perhaps because it is inherently clandestine, tedious, and dirty. However, as the conflict in Gaza indicates, tunneling remains effective, and will likely persist as long as conflict itself.
Sep 5, 2014
The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System
Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.
Jun 13, 2023
Journal Article
Coast Guard Operations: Emerging Challenges and Responses
Coast guards around the globe face a tremendous confluence of challenges. By anticipating these challenges and finding ways to overcome them, coastguards around the globe can continue to protect both people at sea and the maritime environment.
May 19, 2023
Journal Article
Defend Taiwan with Naval Mines
As part of a porcupine strategy, mine warfare can make Taiwan less vulnerable to attack.
May 19, 2023
Research Brief
Activities and Results from U.S. Coast Guard Project Evergreen V
This brief summarizes the findings of U.S. Coast Guard Project Evergreen V, part of a long-term strategic planning effort to identify emerging challenges and future trends that might alter demand for missions and the ability to perform them.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
USCG Project Evergreen V: Compilation of Activities and Summary of Results
This report summarizes the findings of Evergreen V, the most recent iteration of an ongoing U.S. Coast Guard initiative aimed at identifying emerging challenges and future trends so that senior leaders can plan for the long term.
Nov 30, 2022
Journal Article
Emerging Trends in Naval Mining Capabilities
Although mines using decades-old technology remain menacing, several broad technological trends are likely to enhance the threat from naval mines in the next few decades.
Aug 5, 2022
Research Brief
Evaluating the Use of Non-Lethal Weapons in Operational Environments
This brief summarizes a RAND-developed methodology to evaluate the impact of non-lethal weapons in a way that better informs Department of Defense decisions about their development, integration into military forces, and use in diverse contexts.
Aug 5, 2022
Journal Article
The Imperative to Defend Minefields
Minefields can impede an adversary fleet's ability to sortie from port. But once laid, they must be defended to prevent sweeping operations.
Aug 3, 2022
Report
Systematic Method for Prioritizing Investments in Game-Changing Technologies: The Evaluation and Comparison Process Framework
This report summarizes a framework and process to characterize and compare potential game-changing technologies based on likely operational advantage, given specific technological capabilities, challenges of implementation and cost.
Jul 18, 2022
Report
Supporting a Royal Australian Navy Modelling and Simulation Strategy: A Strategy-to-Task Framework
The authors provide an evidence base for an expanded Modelling and Simulation Strategy for the Royal Australian Navy so that it can better position itself to operate in a high-end warfighting environment.
May 18, 2022
Report
How to Effectively Assess the Impact of Non-Lethal Weapons as Intermediate Force Capabilities
This report describes how to evaluate the impact of non-lethal weapons (NLWs). Characterizing the contribution of NLWs to strategic goals provides insights into their effective integration throughout U.S. Department of Defense operations.
Jan 18, 2022
Journal Article
Aerial Minefields Can Put the 'Miss' in Missiles
The growing missile threat is the greatest tactical challenge of the early 21st century. Adversaries ranging from near-peer competitors to rebel groups increasingly can wield highly accurate missiles that can strike ships, ground forces, and key installations.
2022
Journal Article
Invisible Blockades and Strategic Coercion
The use of naval mines goes back more than two centuries, but the use of these weapons by both Russia and Ukraine has renewed discussion about the value of this technology for modern warfare.
2022
Journal Article
Strategic Competition in the Arctic
The Arctic's strategic significance has been largely overlooked since the closing days of the Cold War. In this article, we begin by briefly characterising the Arctic and its military significance, followed by a brief review of its military history.
2022
Report
Shaping Coast Guard Culture to Enhance the Future Workforce
This Perspective describes organizational culture, observations made in strategic-foresight workshops, examples of other organizations addressing culture issues, and how the U.S. Coast Guard can use this information in shaping its future workforce.
Nov 1, 2021
Report
Supporting the Royal Australian Navy's Strategy for Robotics and Autonomous Systems: Building an Evidence Base
In this report, the authors provide an evidence base to inform the Royal Australian Navy's thinking as it develops its Maritime Robotics, Autonomous Systems and Artificial Intelligence (RAS-AI) Strategy 2040.
Sep 14, 2021
photo</a> by Nei.brasil / <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>"/>

Report
Opportunities for the Brazilian Navy to Employ Additional Unmanned Systems
This Perspective is an exploration of some of the ways the Brazilian Navy could use unmanned systems to improve effectiveness and, potentially, reduce risks and costs while meeting a wide range of demands over vast and diverse geographic areas.
Aug 10, 2021
Report
Preparing Japan's Multi-Domain Defense Force for the Future Battlespace Using Emerging Technologies
RAND researchers explore how emerging technology areas, such as artificial intelligence and unmanned systems, may shape defense operations in the future, with a particular focus on Japan's need to keep pace with other countries' capabilities.
Jul 29, 2021
Journal Article
Deceive the Enemy with Emerging Technologies
By using technology to deceive and confuse adversaries, the U.S. Navy can gain a competitive edge.
Feb 4, 2021
Journal Article
Blockship Tactics to Trap Enemy Fleets
The U.S. Navy should initiate a blockship program to counter potential threats.
2021
Report
The U.S. Coast Guard Is Building an Icebreaker Fleet: What Comes Next? Issues and Challenges
Icebreaking has long been an important capability gap in U.S. polar operations. The authors of this Perspective make recommendations for the U.S. Coast Guard to close that gap and include short scenarios to illustrate potential needs for icebreakers.
Dec 8, 2020
Report
How Can the Coast Guard Use Gaming?
The U.S. Coast Guard employs some gaming approaches, but doing so more formally could help the service expand its tool sets. In this Perspective, the authors discuss how the service can use gaming better.
Sep 9, 2020
Report
Decoding Data Science: The U.S. Coast Guard's Evolving Needs and Their Implications
This Perspective outlines the role that data science can play in decisionmaking processes and provides a selected set of key questions and sensitivities for the U.S. Coast Guard to consider in developing its future usage of this expanding field.
Jun 24, 2020
Report
Developing New Future Scenarios for the U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen Strategic Foresight Program
The U.S. Coast Guard's Evergreen strategic foresight initiative works to identify emerging service challenges that require focus in the near term. This report describes an approach to developing future scenarios to aid in that process.
May 27, 2020
Report
The Marine Transportation System, Autonomous Technology, and Implications for the U.S. Coast Guard
The authors briefly explore some emerging issues for the U.S. Coast Guard related to increasingly autonomous systems and the Marine Transportation System.
May 4, 2020
Report
Development of Standardized and Best Practices for the USCG Boats Acquisition Program
This report contains a review of the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) boats acquisition program and the programs of similar organizations inside and outside the USCG, possible funding and structural strategies, and recommendations for USCG leadership.
Jun 24, 2019
Report
Identifying Potential Gaps in U.S. Coast Guard Arctic Capabilities
This report documents a research project that focused on identifying priority potential Arctic capability gaps with respect to U.S. Coast Guard operations in the region in the present and in the 2030s.
Apr 11, 2018
Tool
Assessing Impact to Inform Decisions: A Toolkit on Measures for Policymakers
This toolkit provides a very brief overview of how to identify concepts that should be measured by policymakers, how to evaluate measures, and how to identify new measures that can contribute to better-informed decisions, plans, and assessments.
Jul 25, 2017
Journal Article
Rethink Mine Countermeasures
Despite efforts to reduce the timelines, costs,and risks associated with MCM operations, mines remain cost-imposing weapons that can deny access for protracted periods or inflict unacceptable losses on the U.S. Navy.
2017
Report
Technological Lessons from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident
This study analyzes technological successes and identifies capability gaps regarding technological countermeasures to radioactive contamination caused by the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident.
Jun 1, 2016
Report
Designing Adaptable Ships: Modularity and Flexibility in Future Ship Designs
Report explores the U.S. Navy's options for adopting modularity and flexibility concepts in ship design to mitigate risks of adapting to uncertain future missions and technologies, as well as potentially reduce modernization and/or initial costs.
Mar 3, 2016
Report
Enhancing U.S. Coast Guard Metrics
This report documents logic models detailing elements of the Coast Guard's missions, examines existing metrics, and proposes potential metrics that could improve on or complement existing metrics, together with a framework for applying the metrics.
Oct 27, 2015
Report
U.S. Navy Employment Options for Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USVs)
Assesses in what ways and to what degree unmanned surface vehicles are suitable for supporting U.S. Navy missions and functions.
Nov 1, 2013