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Southeast Asia

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Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia form the bulk of Southeast Asia, a region that has experienced significant economic development in recent decades but also faces ethnonationalism and security concerns. RAND has investigated these issues as well as the region's relations with the United States, the former Soviet bloc countries, China, and Japan.

Report
Challenges of Deploying Ground-Based Intermediate-Range Missiles on Allied Lands
The United States has been hoping to develop and deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles to the Indo-Pacific. But what is the likelihood of its treaty allies in the region—Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand—hosting these systems? Are there alternatives to permanent basing?
Apr 28, 2022
Commentary
Why Most of the Indo-Pacific Tiptoes Around Russia
Since the start of Russia's increasingly brutal war in Ukraine, the West has ramped up pressure on the rest of the world to condemn Moscow's belligerence and join sanctions against Russia and its regime. In the vast Indo-Pacific region, however, the West's message has fallen flat.
Apr 7, 2022

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Report
U.S. Major Combat Operations in the Indo-Pacific: Partner and Ally Views
This report, one of two, focuses on whether partners and allies have the willingness to support U.S. operations in a major Indo-Pacific conflict. The companion report focuses on technical and operational issues.
May 16, 2023
Commentary
Biden Hopes for Vietnam Breakthrough
The United States wants to intensify U.S.-Vietnam ties, because the two countries share long-term strategic interests. Vietnam seems perfectly fine with things dragging on for years in their current state, avoiding a final decision, or even getting cold feet in the end. Washington would be wise to manage expectations for now.
May 12, 2023
Report
The Backbone of U.S. Joint Operations: Army Roles in the Indo-Pacific
The authors of this report seek to provide an engaging and structured illustrated narrative to more clearly describe the U.S. Army's role throughout the Indo-Pacific region in the present day and into 2035.
May 5, 2023
Commentary
Why China Should Worry About Asia's Reaction to AUKUS
If most Indo-Pacific nations support AUKUS—or refuse to condemn it—then Beijing will have more geostrategic and military implications to worry about than AUKUS itself. As long as AUKUS continues to assuage nuclear-proliferation concerns, then the region will view it as a legitimate counter to Chinese military excesses.
Apr 15, 2023
Commentary
As China Ascends, Concerns Grow It Might Be Tempted into a 'Splendid Little War'
When a nation newly ascends or returns to the status of a leading international power, it often feels the need to publicly demonstrate its rise through a brief, victorious war. Today, China's increasing strength may tempt it to pursue such a conflict, and not necessarily with Taiwan, if it anticipates that victory will be swift, decisive, and demonstrative.
Apr 11, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.
Mar 9, 2023
Commentary
The Philippines Is America's New Star Ally in Asia
The election of the Philippines' new president, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., in May 2022 has proven exceptionally significant for Washington's security alliances in the Indo-Pacific. Marcos has prioritized the maintenance of healthy ties to the United States, marking a sharp departure from the foreign policy of his predecessor.
Feb 24, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific across seven issues, including securing a free and open Indo-Pacific and the denuclearization of North Korea.
Feb 20, 2023
Multimedia
The 7th Annual West Coast Aerospace Forum
U.S. Air Force leaders and top national security experts gathered at the seventh annual West Coast Aerospace Forum in December 2022. This year's event focused on lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and how those experiences will apply to security challenges in the Pacific theater and beyond. These videos include the proceedings from the event's five sessions.
Feb 1, 2023
Commentary
Biden's Southeast Asia Policy Improves in Second Year, but Still Much to Do
In 2022, the Biden administration stepped up its game in Southeast Asia by showing up in person, clarifying its approach in key strategy documents, and boosting cooperation. But one obvious problem that remains is that it still has no real economic strategy to counter China in the region.
Jan 10, 2023
Report
New Directions for Projecting Land Power in the Indo-Pacific: Contexts, Constraints, and Concepts
This report seeks to address how the U.S. Army can most effectively project and employ land power in the Indo-Pacific, during competition and conflict, with a focus on scenarios involving China.
Dec 20, 2022
Report
South Korea's Policy Options in Asia: Summary of a Webinar Hosted by the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy
South Korea faces uncertainty over the roles it might play in Asia, especially South and Southeast Asia. An October 2022 webinar examined the strategies and policies available to South Korea.
Dec 15, 2022
Commentary
How China Is Building Influence Through Arms Sales
China may be using arms sales to strengthen alliances around the South China Sea and counter the United States' regional alliances. Beijing's security relationships around the South China Sea could be a harbinger of what it might replicate in Africa and possibly Latin America.
Dec 9, 2022
Report
Implications of a Global People's Liberation Army: Historical Lessons for Responding to China's Long-Term Global Basing Ambitions
The authors examine three case studies among the United States' competitors to help anticipate what Chinese overseas access and basing might look like in the 2030s while assessing U.S. risks and opportunities posed by Chinese military expansion.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
What Are China's Global Basing Ambitions?
China appears likely to seek military access and basing in its immediate vicinity and in the Middle East, but parts of Africa and the Indo-Pacific are also of interest. The United States should carefully prioritize where to resist Chinese access and basing and where to reinforce U.S. relationships.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
The People's Liberation Army's Search for Overseas Basing and Access: A Framework to Assess Potential Host Nations
Using a framework of 17 indicators, the authors assess and rank potential host nations for Chinese overseas basing and access. They recommend steps to better understand China's overseas plans and to prioritize risks to U.S. forces.
Dec 8, 2022
Report
China's Role in the Global Development of Critical Resources
China's extensive foreign investments in energy infrastructure and critical minerals have raised concerns. Case studies in coal power, electricity transmission, and seabed mining examine China's behaviors and suggest ways to build capacity among host nations to minimize the potential effects of an overreliance on China.
Nov 7, 2022
Report
The Political Geography of the South China Sea Disputes
Until the early 20th century, the South China Sea was seen as a vital communications and trade passage that was not under the jurisdiction of any country or empire. How did littoral states' claims on its maritime zones and features develop? And what is the likely future of the disputes?
Oct 19, 2022
Commentary
Indonesia Is Looking for More Than Security Support from the United States
Rather than remain aloof from the new great power competition between the United States and China, Indonesia has quietly, albeit determinedly, favored relations with Washington, though in reality, it does not have much of a choice.
Sep 14, 2022
Commentary
The Indo-Pacific Mostly Backs 'One China,' but Taiwan Gets Some Love, Too
Almost the entire Indo-Pacific region backs China over Taiwan. But U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's August trip to Taiwan made it clear that key U.S. allies strongly support Taiwan's cause, particularly in the face of a potential war over the island. This suggests that Beijing's assertive behavior is steadily alienating nations that otherwise may have minded their own business.
Aug 22, 2022

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Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Sean Flanagan

Research Assistant

Sean Flanagan is a research assistant at the RAND Corporation. He works with RAND Europe, primarily within the areas of defence and security.
Matthew Sargent

Codirector, RAND Center for Applied Network Analysis

Matthew Sargent is a management scientist at RAND, codirector of the Center for Applied Network Analysis, and a professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, where he teaches the core course in social network analysis. His research spans a variety of subject areas, often focusing on command and…

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