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Space Warfare

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Essay
The Calls for More Progress on Space Governance Are Growing Louder
Space may seem infinite, but the narrow band that hugs the Earth, where satellites and space stations operate, is not. Existing space treaties won't be enough to keep satellites safe, to prevent crowding and collisions, and to preserve the promise of outer space.
Jan 5, 2023
Report
How Do China and Russia Perceive U.S. Military Activities in Space?
Chinese and Russian primary sources reflect a perception that U.S. space activities are threatening and demonstrate hostile intent. At the same time, they characterize their own, similar actions as nonthreatening. Washington, Beijing, and Moscow appear to be caught in an action-reaction cycle that perpetuates justifications for continued military action in space.
Oct 11, 2022

Explore Space Warfare

Report
Understanding, Managing, and Reporting U.S. Space Force Readiness
As a branch of the U.S. military, the U.S. Space Force (USSF) must understand, manage, and report its readiness. The authors of this report have created a readiness framework for the USSF and instructions on how to implement it.
Mar 7, 2023
Journal Article
Exploring Chinese Thinking on Deterrence in the Not-So-New Space and Cyber Domains
This conference volume chapter explores evolving Chinese thinking on space and cyber deterrence. Besides nuclear deterrence, the space and cyber domains are viewed by China as its main means of strategic deterrence.
Feb 21, 2023
Report
Russia's Evolution Toward a Unified Strategic Operation: The Influence of Geography and Conventional Capacity
In this report, RAND researchers examine the reasons behind Russia's evolution toward a unified strategic operation, as well as the capabilities that would be necessary to execute key conventional offensive tasks in such an operation.
Feb 13, 2023
Multimedia
The 7th Annual West Coast Aerospace Forum
U.S. Air Force leaders and top national security experts gathered at the seventh annual West Coast Aerospace Forum in December 2022. This year's event focused on lessons learned from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and how those experiences will apply to security challenges in the Pacific theater and beyond. These videos include the proceedings from the event's five sessions.
Feb 1, 2023
Report
First Mover Typology for the Space Domain: Building a Foundation for Future Analysis
The authors offer a categorization and nuanced views of first moves in military strategy as a basis for understanding and further analysis of first mover advantage in the space domain.
Jan 25, 2023
Multimedia
Expert Insights: Future Uses of Space
In this Expert Insights podcast, James Black and Linda Slapakova discuss the potential uses of space out to 2050, ranging from defence, manufacturing, climate protection, and tourism.
Jul 13, 2022
Report
Space Competition and the Dynamics of Conflict: Using Game Theory and Artificial Intelligence to Gain Strategic Insight
The authors summarize research about using a game-theoretic model of competition and cooperation in space to examine the dynamics of conflict there, short of wars of total destruction. They focus specifically on the dynamics of space competition .
Jul 5, 2022
Journal Article
Considering Responsible Behaviours as Part of Managing Threats to Space Systems
Space is becoming more contested, competed and congested. This report covers Wilton Park consultations on how to define and promote responsible behaviors in space, ahead of formal United Nations negotiations to try to reduce threats to space security.
May 17, 2022
Commentary
An Alternative Way to Think About Space Regulation
There are currently no international binding rules that would address growing threats in space. Without more-defined and enforceable rules of war regarding space and space assets, the danger of a destructive conflict in space grows significantly.
May 9, 2022
Project
Future Uses of Space Out to 2050
To support the UK's National Space Strategy and ensure that it is more future-proof, researchers recommend the UK work more closely with allies, foster innovation, and more.
Mar 2, 2022
Report
How Space Might Be Used Between Now and 2050
The number of space-related activities conducted by government, military, and commercial actors around the world is increasing. How will the way space is used change? Who will the key actors be? And what can be done to ensure a more future-proof space strategy?
Mar 2, 2022
Report
Realising the Ambitions of the UK's Defence Space Strategy: Factors Shaping Implementation to 2030
This study provides an initial look at the factors influencing the implementation of the Defence Space Strategy to 2030 and the strengths and weaknesses of the UK space enterprise. It also includes a decision support tool for capability management.
Feb 17, 2022
Journal Article
Nasty, Brutish, and Short—The Future of Space Operations in the Absence of the Rule of Law: Addressing Congestion, Contestation, and Competitiveness in the New Space Era
Existing treaties and laws are not sufficient to govern space given the dramatic growth in space activity. Ensuring a safe, secure, and prosperous space for all nations may require the application of social contract theory to space governance.
Feb 15, 2022
Report
Assessing the Readiness of Contractor-Provided Space Operations Capabilities
There are a significant number of private contractors performing space operations functions and tasks for the Air Force. This report examines how the Air Force evaluates its ability to deliver space operations capabilities provided by contractors.
Jan 3, 2022
Commentary
Could the Move Toward Collaboration Technologies Change the Very Makeup of Populations?
Collaborative technologies such as Zoom and Microsoft Teams have transformed how we work, visit the doctor, and go to school. But can they also shift demographic trends in migration, fertility, morbidity, and mortality? And if so, how?
Dec 17, 2021
Blog
Historic Lynchings and Voter Registration, China in Space, Firefighters' Mental Health: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the link between historic lynchings and voter registration, Afghanistan in the era of fentanyl, supporting firefighters’ mental health, and more.
Jul 30, 2021
Report
Deterring China in Space
How could the United States, along with key allies and partners, prevent China from taking actions in space or interfering with space-based capabilities in ways that are harmful to U.S. national security interests?
Jul 27, 2021
Multimedia
West Coast Aerospace Forum 2020: Aerospace Vision for the Future
The 6th annual West Coast Aerospace Forum in December 2020 featured discussions between some of the Department of the Air Force‘s most senior and experienced leaders and top civilian national security experts.
Feb 19, 2021
Commentary
How Joe Biden Can Galvanize Space Diplomacy
The potential for conflicts to originate in outer space, or for terrestrial conflicts to extend there, has grown with the development of counterspace weapons and the explosion of commercial space activity. But previous efforts to establish norms have had limited results. The Biden administration has an opportunity, working with like-minded allies and partners, to galvanize nascent international efforts.
Jan 15, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Space Warfare

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Kotryna Jukneviciute

Defense Analyst

Kotryna Jukneviciute is a defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, and her work has focused on Russian military operations, defense of the Baltics, nuclear escalation dynamics, space security, security cooperation, and U.S./Turkey relations. Her recent work has explored dynamics between Belarus…
George Nacouzi

Senior Engineer

George Nacouzi, a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation, supports projects within Project AIR FORCE and the National Security Research Division. He is also a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. Some of his current research interests include assessing the performance of space…

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