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Taiwan became the primary stronghold of the Republic of China following the Communist party's rise in mainland China in 1949. RAND has analyzed shifts in U.S. diplomatic and military policy toward Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) over the decades and, in recent years, has examined Taiwan's rapid economic development, gradual political liberalization, and efforts to achieve independence from the PRC.

Report
What Taiwan's Dominance in Semiconductor Production Means for the U.S.
Semiconductors have become an integral part of nearly every industry. Production of the highest-end semiconductors exists almost entirely in Taiwan. If China were to unify with Taiwan, there are no good short-term options for responding to the disruption that would cause to the global semiconductor supply chain.
Mar 13, 2023
Commentary
Could Taiwan Defend with Uncrewed Surface Vessels?
Ukraine has demonstrated the ability of explosive uncrewed surface vessels to target ships. These weapons could play a role in preventing Chinese forces from successfully invading Taiwan in potential future scenarios.
Jan 9, 2023

Explore Taiwan

Report
Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways
This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation.
Jun 22, 2023
Testimony
Chinese Strategy in the Freely Associated States and American Territories in the Pacific: Implications for the United States: Addendum
Document submitted June 5, 2023, as an addendum to testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs on May 16, 2023.
Jun 12, 2023
Commentary
The Global Movement Against China's Economic Coercion Is Accelerating
There is much the West can do to push back against Chinese economic pressure, and many reasons to do so. Doing so is a core interest of the United States, which now places itself in competition with China over the shape of the international order.
Jun 9, 2023
Blog
Immigration Policy, the Black-White Wealth Gap, ChatGPT: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the challenges facing U.S. immigration policy, what it would take to close America's Black-white wealth gap, risks and opportunities associated with artificial intelligence, more.
May 26, 2023
Commentary
What Washington Gets Wrong About Deterrence
The war in Ukraine has depleted American military stockpiles in the short term. But such a shortfall may not necessarily affect U.S. deterrence.
May 22, 2023
Commentary
Upcoming Presidential Election Will Clarify Taiwan's China Policy
Until the Taiwanese presidential election next January, China, the United States, and many other countries will be watching Taiwan with bated breath. Across the Indo-Pacific region and the world, the hope would simply be that no matter who is elected, peace and stability continue to prevail in the Taiwan Strait.
May 19, 2023
Journal Article
Defend Taiwan with Naval Mines
As part of a porcupine strategy, mine warfare can make Taiwan less vulnerable to attack.
May 19, 2023
Testimony
Chinese Strategy in the Pacific and Implications for the United States
In recent years, Chinese attention has increasingly included Oceania. What has Chinese strategy been in the Freely Associated States and U.S. territories in the Pacific? What are some policy recommendations for Congress and the U.S. government to consider going forward?
May 16, 2023
Commentary
Defending Taiwan with Artificial Reefs
Deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is arguably the most important defense problem of the next few decades. Artificial reefs could help to deter China simply by waiting to impale any potential invasion force.
May 10, 2023
Report
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 1, Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations
RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.
May 9, 2023
Research Brief
The Aftermath of a Great Power War
A review of historical great power wars shows that prewar predictions about who would fight, how long the war would last, and how the world would look afterward were often wrong. It's important to understand what the outcomes of different conflicts could look like and how to better prepare for them.
May 9, 2023
Journal Article
Is China Planning to Attack Taiwan? A Careful Consideration of Available Evidence Says No
Is China preparing to invade Taiwan within the next two decades? In the past year, fears that war could break out in the Taiwan Strait have grown palpable, owing in large part to the shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
May 5, 2023
Journal Article
Could Beijing Risk a Diversionary War Against Taiwan?
The combination of a weakening strategic situation and an increasingly despotic regime has left Xi with few constraints on his power, leaving many to fear that he could risk military adventurism as a diversion from China's deteriorating situation.
May 5, 2023
Journal Article
Wargames Can't Tell Us How to Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan — But Different Games Might
Wargames that simulate combat between the United States and China near Taiwan can provide useful insight about potential military challenges.
May 5, 2023
Journal Article
How the Ukraine War Accelerates the Defense Strategy
This piece explores the implications of the Defense Department's support for Ukraine on the National Defense Strategy, and support for Taiwan in particular.
Apr 11, 2023
Blog
Dementia and National Security, Finland Joins NATO, the Four-Day School Week: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the risk that dementia could pose to national security, Finland's NATO membership, the downside of a four-day school week, and more.
Apr 7, 2023
Commentary
Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War
China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.
Mar 24, 2023
Commentary
Juggled Plan for McCarthy-Tsai Meeting Does Taiwan No Favors
Instead of traveling to Taiwan like Nancy Pelosi did, U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is abiding by the advice of President Tsai Ing-wen to skip the trip. They will meet in California. This could be seen as a major victory for China's aggressive stance toward U.S. ties with the island and could embolden Beijing.
Mar 24, 2023
Blog
Opioids in America, Silicon Valley Bank, Semiconductors: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on addressing America's illicit opioids problem, Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, Taiwan’s semiconductor dominance, and more.
Mar 17, 2023
Report
The View of the Taiwan Strait from the U.S.-Japan Alliance
An October 2022 event gathered experts to examine the view of the Taiwan strait from the U.S.-Japan alliance. Presenters considered the Taiwan strait issue from the perspectives of the United States and Japan.
Mar 15, 2023

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Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Cristina L. Garafola

Policy Researcher

Cristina Garafola (she/her) is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation. Her research focuses on the ramifications of China’s rise for its global status, particularly with respect to defense issues, China’s influence on regional actors, and implications for the United States. Garafola served…
Chad J. R. Ohlandt

Senior Engineer

Chad Ohlandt (he/his) is a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation, focusing on defense acquisition, technology policy, and Indo-Pacific issues. His work revolves around the development of requirements and acquisition of advanced aerospace systems to meet civilian, commercial, and national…

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