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Threat Assessment

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Researchers collaborate across disciplines at RAND to evaluate terrorist, military, nuclear, cyber, and other threats to U.S. national security—identifying emerging threats, scrutinizing known risks, and evaluating potential strategic and tactical responses. Recent studies have included examinations of ISIS, Iran's nuclear capabilities, and insider threats.

Report
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
In response to China's expanding military activity in the Indo-Pacific, the United States has increased its activity in the region over the past decade. How can America continue to safeguard its interests while limiting potential risks of escalation with China?
Nov 30, 2022
Commentary
Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.
Mar 6, 2023

Explore Threat Assessment

Journal Article
Not-So-Great Powers: U.S.-China Rivalry in the Neomedieval Age
Counterintuitive as might sound, U.S. decisionmakers should avoid strategies and methods drawn from industrial-age great power competition.
Jun 7, 2023
Commentary
The United States Needs a Moonshot to Prevent Extremism from Metastasizing
Extremism is like cancer: It will always exist, but ignoring it runs the risk that it rears its ugly head, metastasizing throughout the country. The United States needs to ensure it has the proper tools to diagnose extremism in its earliest stages, and that the agencies tasked with protecting our democracy have the capability to get it into, and keep it in, remission.
May 16, 2023
Blog
Reflecting on the Pandemic, RAND Turns 75, Labor Trafficking: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, 75 years of influential RAND research, reducing labor trafficking in the United States, and more.
May 12, 2023
News Release
New Book by Hoehn and Shanker Asserts America's National Security Machine Has Gone Astray, Fails To Keep U.S. Safe—But Can Be Fixed
A new book by RAND senior vice president Andrew Hoehn and bestselling author Thom Shanker looks at the major challenges facing America—from superpowers China and Russia to emerging threats like pandemics, cybersecurity, climate change, and drones—and reimagines the national security apparatus into something that can truly keep Americans safe.
May 11, 2023
Report
Deterring Threats from Uncertain Origins: Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia
“Havana Syndrome,” an unexplained illness first experienced by U.S. diplomatic personnel in Cuba in 2016, illustrates the challenge of responding to national security threats when those threats—as well as the actors and methods behind them—are ambiguous.
May 11, 2023
Report
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 2, Supporting Material on Historical Great Power Wars
To inform a project on the aftermath of great power wars, the author examined ten conflicts since 1853. This volume presents brief historical summaries and assesses past forecasts of the duration, intensity, stakes, and consequences of each war.
May 9, 2023
Research Brief
The Aftermath of a Great Power War
A review of historical great power wars shows that prewar predictions about who would fight, how long the war would last, and how the world would look afterward were often wrong. It's important to understand what the outcomes of different conflicts could look like and how to better prepare for them.
May 9, 2023
Q&A
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick in Conversation
Though not a great power war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused many to wonder what a true great power war in Europe or the Indo-Pacific would look like, and especially what kind of world would emerge afterwards. Two RAND researchers discuss how their recent report sheds light on this issue.
May 9, 2023
Report
Terrorism Net Assessment
In this report, the authors offer a preliminary conception of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism.
May 2, 2023
Report
Independent Review of the Homeland Security Grant Program Terrorism Risk Formula and Data
Researchers evaluated the Federal Emergency Management Agency's terrorism risk formula, which considers threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks for allocating resources to the Homeland Security Grant Program.
Apr 19, 2023
Commentary
Why Is China Strengthening Its Military? It's Not All About War
China's military modernization goals serve a variety of political and military purposes, none of which imply any intent to actually start a war. A grasp of the myriad drivers could help observers more accurately assess the danger posed by the PLA's modernization.
Mar 24, 2023
Commentary
Juggled Plan for McCarthy-Tsai Meeting Does Taiwan No Favors
Instead of traveling to Taiwan like Nancy Pelosi did, U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is abiding by the advice of President Tsai Ing-wen to skip the trip. They will meet in California. This could be seen as a major victory for China's aggressive stance toward U.S. ties with the island and could embolden Beijing.
Mar 24, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends
The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations
This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications
The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.
Mar 9, 2023
Essay
Preventing Violence in Schools: How to Encourage Students to Report Threats
One of the most consistent findings in research on school shootings is that someone knew an attack was possible but didn't report it. There are ways schools can encourage students to come forward when they see or hear something concerning: tip lines, training, and a lot more trust.
Mar 9, 2023
Blog
RAND President and CEO Presenting to House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
RAND President and CEO Jason Matheny appeared on February 28, 2023, before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. His remarks covered advances in synthetic biology and artificial intelligence and their potential impact on national security.
Feb 28, 2023
Report
Bolstering U.S. Air Bases Against Chinese and Russian Attacks
There's a growing consensus that China and Russia represent major threats to U.S. interests, and there are calls to counter the threats cost-effectively. Air base resilience requires close familiarity with the threat, a systematic approach for addressing it, and sustained efforts to build on investments in protection.
Jan 17, 2023
Research Brief
Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific
This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.
Jan 12, 2023
Essay
What Does China's Arctic Presence Mean to the United States?
China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” a designation it invented to push for a greater role in Arctic governance. Although the U.S. sees China as a potentially destabilizing force, engaging with China in the Arctic does not have to be a win-or-lose proposition. There are opportunities to cooperate—on climate change, for example, or pollution control.
Dec 29, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Threat Assessment

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Scott Savitz

Senior Engineer

Scott Savitz is a senior engineer at the RAND Corporation. Much of his research focuses on how to improve the effectiveness and resilience of operational forces through the use of new technologies and modified tactics. He has developed numerous models and simulations in support of such analyses.
Jacob L. Heim

Senior Policy Researcher

Jacob Heim specializes in strategic assessment and defense analysis with a background in international relations and mathematics. His research has focused on the military balance in the Western Pacific, USAF overseas force posture, wargaming, and the challenge posed by anti-access, area-denial…

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