Cover: Potential Economic Effects of Brexit

Potential Economic Effects of Brexit

Implications for the United Kingdom, European Union, and United States

by Charles P. Ries, Marco Hafner, Troy D. Smith, Frances G. Burwell, Daniel Egel, Eugeniu Han, Martin Stepanek, Howard J. Shatz, Lee Floyd, Monica Hertzman, et al.

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How might Brexit affect the economies of the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States? This will depend on the outcomes of the ongoing negotiations and decisions made about trade and investment.

This calculator allows users to examine how the negotiations are likely to affect these three economies in the 10 years after Brexit negotiations conclude. It shows the economic effects of the UK's withdrawal from the EU under five proposed "hard Brexit" scenarios — ranging from complete economic separation with a return to World Trade Organization rules to an Atlantic trade partnership that includes the UK, United States, and remaining European states ("EU27").

The tool lets users examine the economic implications of specific trade and investment decisions. A Custom Scenario option lets users investigate how outcomes might change under assumptions that differ from those presented in the report. This new scenario can then be compared to each of the others.

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This project is a RAND Venture. Funding was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. The research was conducted by RAND Europe in association with the International Security and Defense Policy Center within the RAND National Defense Research Institute.

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