Cover: Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces

Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces

An Interactive Tool

by Bryan Frederick, Jennifer Kavanagh, Matthew Lane

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This interactive tool uses a dynamic forecasting model to project future demand for U.S. ground forces. The model provides projections of trends in (1) the future operating environment, including the incidence of interstate war and intrastate conflict, (2) future U.S. ground interventions, and (3) the anticipated force requirements for these interventions. Users of the tool can then define their own future scenarios by selecting alternative values of a number of key parameters of the model including both those that relate to key U.S. policy decisions (e.g. U.S. military size and spending, U.S. overseas force posture, and U.S. alliances), as well as those that relate to how key aspects of the international order may evolve (e.g. trends in the global trading system and in the extent of democratization). The resulting forecasts can help military manage risk across different potential strategic and operational concerns and inform decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.

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This research was sponsored by the United States Army and conducted by the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program within RAND Arroyo Center.

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