Jeffrey B. Wenger

Senior Policy Researcher; Director of the Lowy-Family Middle-class Pathways Center

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in policy analysis, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; B.A. in mathematics, University of California, Santa Cruz

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Jeffrey B. Wenger (he/his) is a senior policy researcher and director of the RAND Lowy Family Middle-Class Pathways Center (MCPC). As director of the Middle-Class Pathways Center he works with RAND researchers and other scholars documenting the challenges of remaining in the middle class and focusing on the most pressing needs to expand growth opportunities for the middle class. His current research examines the effects of working conditions on remaining in the labor force, and helping military personnel transition into the civilian labor force. He is currently working with Indeed.com to examine the costs of providing flexible work arrangements and better working conditions to workers. He is also investigating the proportion of unemployed who have a criminal history record. He is a nationally known expert in unemployment insurance. From 2003 to 2015 Wenger was an assistant and then associate professor at the University of Georgia. He received his Ph.D. in policy analysis from the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Faculty Fellow, School of Public Affairs, American University, Washington DC

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: The Big Bid Theory podcast; ERE Daily; Government Executive; KCUR-FM; Newsy; NPR

Commentary

Employment and Unemployment

Why Unemployed Men with Criminal Records Could Be Key to Solving the U.S. Labor Shortage
American employers are panicked about the lack of willing workers. They shouldn't be. There are plenty of Americans who want to work. If you're an employer, you may be wondering where all these potential employees are hiding. They aren't hiding—they've been applying to your job openings, and you've been screening them out.
Feb 22, 2022
Los Angeles Times
Wages and Compensation

Is the Fight for $15 Going to Cost Low-Wage Workers Their Health Insurance?
Minimum wage increases can lead to reductions in employer-sponsored health insurance for some workers and their dependents. If policymakers want to raise the minimum wage, they should look beyond standard labor market outcomes and take into account other potential effects.
Oct 11, 2021
Newsweek
Socioeconomic Status

Most Americans Consider Themselves Middle-Class. But Are They?
There are different ways of determining who should be considered middle-class. But there is one thing they have in common: All reveal that the middle class in the United States is shrinking.
May 14, 2021
ProMarket
Employment and Unemployment

38 Million Have Applied for Unemployment—but How Many Have Received Benefits?
Unemployment Insurance may need substantial reform to its application process, but it has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic unemployment disaster. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, the new program intended for workers who are not part of the employer tax base, has not.
Jun 1, 2020
The RAND Blog
Employment and Unemployment

Is the Unemployment Rate Now Higher Than It Was in the Great Depression?
The extent of COVID-19's effect on the labor market will be catastrophic for many workers and businesses. Matching the unemployment rate peak set by the Great Depression is not even necessary to establish the historic nature of the downturn that we're living through.
May 7, 2020
The RAND Blog
Economics

The Second Wave of COVID Consequences
Economists closely watch measures of consumer confidence because they are highly predictive economic indicators. New consumer data reveals likely long-term and prolonged economic fallout.
Apr 24, 2020
The RAND Blog
Many Americans Face Bullying, Harassment, and Abuse at Work, but Bosses Can Help
Workers are experiencing high levels of hostile behaviors at work. Nearly one in five American workers have been subjected to some form of verbal abuse, unwanted sexual attention, threats, or humiliating behavior at work, with younger non-college educated workers bearing the most risk.
Aug 30, 2017
The RAND Blog
Working for $7.25 an Hour: Exploring the Minimum Wage Debate
Critics of raising the minimum wage argue that proponents are ignoring the laws of supply and demand, that it would generate unemployment. Recent theory suggests that increasing wages results in higher quality workers entering the market and improving the quality of the employee-employer match, raising productivity and lowering turnover.
Sep 1, 2016
The RAND Blog
One in Five Hourly Employees Working Overtime Not Properly Compensated
Most laws as old as the Fair Labor Standards Act regularly need tuning up. But its overtime provisions are complicated because some workers are exempt from being covered. A survey of more than 1,500 employed adults finds that employers are violating the rules.
Sep 4, 2015
The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
Military-to-Civilian Occupational Matching: Using the O*NET to Provide Match Recommendations for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force
The authors employ a unique method for military-to-civilian occupational matching by comparing survey data collected from service members in selected military occupations with similar data previously collected for civilian occupations.
Jun 6, 2023
Journal Article
The Value of Working Conditions in the United States and Implications for the Structure of Wages
We document variation in working conditions in the United States, present estimates of how workers value these conditions, and assess the impact of working conditions on estimates of wage inequality.
Apr 27, 2023
Journal Article
The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Workers with a Criminal History
In this article, we use data from the NLSY97 COVID-19 Supplement to examine the extent to which workers with a criminal history record had employment disruptions during the early months of the pandemic.
Feb 14, 2023
Report
Assessing Pittsburgh's Science- and Technology-Focused Workforce Ecosystem
RAND Corporation researchers characterize the science- and technology-focused (STF) workforce ecosystem in the Pittsburgh region and suggest policy changes and investment opportunities to help propel the region's STF sectors in the future.
Jan 9, 2023
Tool
Science and Technology-Focused Postsecondary Options in the Pittsburgh Area
RAND researchers compiled a list of science- and technology-focused (STF) providers and programs in the Pittsburgh area. Potential students can filter the list to find out which types of degrees or certificates can be earned in which STF fields.
Jan 9, 2023
Report
Guidance on When to Estimate a Future Price Factor: Development of Criteria and Thresholds
A future price forecast can help the Federal Emergency Management Agency and communities seeking its Public Assistance estimate construction costs. Researchers created a framework for determining when such a forecast could be useful.
Jun 20, 2022
Report
Forecasting Public Recovery Expenditures' Effect on Construction Prices and the Demand for Construction Labor
Researchers developed cost-estimating tools and estimated future construction costs for Puerto Rico's recovery from Hurricane María. This report documents their approach, data, findings, and recommendations.
Jun 17, 2022
Research Brief
Future Price Forecasting in the Wake of Large-Scale Disasters: The Case of Puerto Rico After Hurricane María
Large-scale disaster recovery projects in isolated areas likely require unique future price forecasting. This brief describes an occupational analysis and model to estimate the effects of recovery on the price of labor, materials, and equipment.
Jun 17, 2022
Report
A Risk Assessment of National Critical Functions During COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities
This report presents a framework for assessing risk that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses to the National Critical Functions, describes challenges in implementing the framework, and provides recommendations for improving it.
Apr 26, 2022
Journal Article
State Minimum Wage Increases Delay Marriage and Reduce Divorce Among Low-Wage Households
Across data sources, among men and women earning low wages, a one-dollar increase in the state minimum wage predicts a 3%–6% decline in marriage entry and a 7%–15% decline in divorce one and 2 years later.
Mar 16, 2022
Journal Article
Barred from Employment: More Than Half of Unemployed Men in Their 30s Had a Criminal History of Arrest
We investigate what portion of the pool of unemployed men in the United States have been arrested, convicted, or incarcerated by age 35.
Mar 9, 2022
Journal Article
A Consumption-Based Definition of the Middle Class
In this paper, we develop a consumption-based measure of the middle class that closely follows economic theory of constrained optimization.
2022
Journal Article
The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employer-Sponsored Insurance for Low-Income Workers and Dependents
Minimum wage increases lead to reductions in employer-sponsored insurance coverage in families with incomes below 300% of the federal poverty level.
Jul 28, 2021
Report
Limited Opportunity: Changes in Employment and the American Middle Class
Belonging to the American middle class has become more challenging. The authors of this Perspective discuss the subtle but important changes that have blocked many pathways into the middle class and propose starting points for building new ones.
Apr 22, 2021
Report
Who Is Middle Class?
Depending on definition, the middle class has been either receiving less income (as a share of total) or shrinking in size since the 1970s. Lower-income Americans and their children will likely have limited opportunities for upward mobility.
Feb 25, 2021
Research Brief
The American Working Conditions Survey Finds That Nearly Half of Retirees Would Return to Work
According to the American Working Conditions Survey, more older workers report having meaningful work compared with their prime-age counterparts, and nearly half of retirees would return to work under the right conditions.
Nov 12, 2019
Report
An Analytic Inventory of DHS Headquarters Business Processes
This report provides an inventory of U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) analytic capabilities in the including current capabilities in use for decisionmaking, as DHS establishes an Analytic Agenda.
Apr 24, 2019
Report
Developing a National Recruiting Difficulty Index
The U.S. Army recognizes that the recruiting environment has a significant impact on its ability to recruit. This report presents a forecasting model that measures recruiting difficulty to forecast a difficult or easy recruiting environment.
Mar 13, 2019
Journal Article
Parents with an Unemployed Adult Child: Consumption, Income, and Savings Effects
In this paper, we directly approach the potential costs, inefficiencies, and inequities of aiding family members.
2019
Report
Comparing Ex-Servicemember and Civilian Use of Unemployment Insurance
Drawing from a data set with unemployment compensation for ex-service members and unemployment insurance claims from 2002 to 2012, this report provides a first portrait of the job search process of ex-service members relative to that for civilians.
Feb 8, 2018
Journal Article
Can Income Diversification Explain the Growing Entrepreneurship Gap by Age?
The key result of our analysis is that income diversification has become increasingly important in determining entrepreneurship, but that younger households became less likely over time to have income from multiple sources. At the same time, older households maintained their income diversification and their likelihood of working as entrepreneurs became more responsive to having substantial income from non-business sources such as capital income and Social Security benefits.
Aug 15, 2017
Tool
The American Working Conditions Survey Data: Codebook and Data Description
This codebook describes the content and structure of the American Working Conditions Survey data (AWCS) which was fielded on the RAND American Life Panel (ALP) in 2015.
Aug 14, 2017
Research Brief
How Americans Perceive the Workplace: Results from the American Working Conditions Survey
Half of American workers say that they work in their free time to meet workplace demands, 63 percent feel that they are doing useful work, and 46 percent of retirees age 50 and older say that they would return to work if conditions were right.
Aug 14, 2017
Report
Working Conditions in the United States: Results of the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey
This report presents detailed findings from the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey about the prevalence and distribution of working conditions across the American workforce by age, gender, and education.
Aug 14, 2017
Report
Helping Soldiers Leverage Army Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities in Civilian Jobs
Discusses the results of occupation surveys administered to soldiers in ten of the most populous Army military occupational specialties (MOSs) to develop improved crosswalks between military and civilian occupations.
Jan 23, 2017
Research Brief
Improving Employment Prospects for Soldiers Leaving the Regular Army
Discusses the results of a new approach to develop an improved crosswalk between Army military occupational specialties (MOSs) and civilian occupations, highlighting ten of the Army's most populous combat and noncombat MOSs.
Jan 23, 2017
Journal Article
Push or Pull: Changes in the Relative Risk and Growth of Entrepreneurship Among Older Households
Entrepreneurship among older adults is on the rise, especially in households with greater access to income from interest, dividends, and capital gains.
Nov 30, 2016
Draft
The Fair Labor Standards Act: Worker Misclassification and the Hours and Earnings Effects of Expanded Coverage
Using data from the RAND American Life Panel, this paper quantifies the frequency that employers violate the U.S. Fair Labor Standards Act's overtime rules.
Aug 28, 2015
Journal Article
The Immediate Hardship of Unemployment: Evidence from the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Program
This paper uses a unique administrative database collected by the U.S. Department of Labor from 2002-09 to examine whether reservation wages fall as workers wait longer to apply for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits.
2013